Daily Commentary: September 23, 2025

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Don’t Fight the Fed

Posted by Pete Stolcers on September 23
www.oneoption.com

Typically after the first rate cut the market tends to move higher.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – Last week the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and that was largely expected. Their dovish rhetoric eased worries that they might have waited too long and there could be one or two more rate cuts this year. The market is addicted to easy money and this was music to its ears.

We’ve seen the market deflect bad economic releases for the last few months. It is completely focused on the rate cuts and it will take a series of bad data points to discourage buyers. We don’t have any major economic news scheduled this week. The final reading for Q2 GDP won’t move the needle this week. Flash PMIs are also not having a major market impact. The Services Flash PMI in Germany was better than expected and that has European stocks trading a little higher this morning.

AI is “the next big thing” and that theme is creating some great day trading opportunities. These stocks have been hot and the intraday moves have been steady.

Seasonal weakness will last another few weeks and then seasonal strength will kick in. Asset Managers don’t want to miss a year end rally and those who have been waiting to buy a dip are getting nervous as the market marches higher without them. They will get more and more aggressive as they play catch up and the odds of a 5% drop in the next month are decreasing.

The ideal set-up is a drop from August- October and a snap back rally from November – December. That type of price movement creates opportunities on both sides. We don’t always get what we want and the most likely scenario is a gradual grind higher.

For longer term swing trades I like selling OTM put premium on strong stocks that have high IVs. For short term swing trades we can carry some overnight positions, but don’t go overboard. For day trades we buy gaps down and we wait for dips when we have gaps up.

The market is a fair distance above the EMA 8, but not enough to be concerned. Overseas markets were slightly higher. The gains from yesterday will be tested this morning. I would wait for an early pullback. Once support is confirmed, be ready to buy strong stocks that you have on your radar.

Support is $665 and resistance is $670?

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