Daily Commentary: September 26, 2025

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Buy This Dip

Posted by Pete Stolcers on September 26
www.oneoption.com

The market has been in a steady climb and these drops below the EMA 8 have been good entry points.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS FRIDAY – If you read the headlines, the world is falling apart. You’re a nervous wreck and every drop feels like it could be the one. The market doesn’t behave rationally and if you have been influenced by the fundamental backdrop you are either short or in cash.

If you are guided by technical analysis you see a nice strong trend where the dips are minor and the recoveries are speedy. Those are bullish signs and you have participated in this move higher. This is a hit and run market and the best tactic is to buy dips below the EMA 8 and to sell when the market stalls well above it.

Yesterday the market probed for support and the damage was contained. The first bounce was tall and that signaled that a meltdown was unlikely. If sellers were in control, we would have seen steady selling pressure all day. After a second test of support, the market bounced again. This was a buying opportunity and the SPY is up nicely this morning.

We could be heading for a government shutdown, but the market is not concerned. Trump has been threatening job cuts for nonessential employees and a shut down would give him an excuse to do it. Democrats don’t want this and based on the severance packages offered earlier this year, they know he is serious. Politicians will strike a deal and it could take a couple of weeks to hammer out. That is why the market is discounting this event.

Next week we’ll get a slew of economic releases. Unfortunately, I don’t think they are going to move the needle. If the news is good, the market will rejoice that the economy is not going into a recession. If the news is bad, the market will rejoice that the Fed will cut interest rates two more times this year.

Seasonal weakness will end in three weeks and then year end strength will kick in. Asset managers don’t want to miss this move. If the market was going to sell off, it would have done so in August. We had horrible economic news and a hawkish Fed to spark profit taking and it never happened.

Price is truth. You don’t have to listen to my analysis or anyone else’s. Just look at the chart and trust what you see.

We don’t chase gaps up. Let’s see if the market pulls back. Line up your stocks and take some starter positions for swing trades with the intent to hold them and add to them the rest of the year. Depending on your risk tolerance you can sell naked OTM puts on stocks you want to own or you can buy them outright.

For day trading we want to focus on stocks that held strong the last few days. They will push higher today. We have a lot of news next week so the intraday movement should be good.

Europe was up and Asia was down. There is not much of an international tailwind.

Support is the low from Thursday and resistance is the close from Wednesday.

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