Daily Commentary: September 29, 2023

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Market Bounce Coming

Posted by Peter Stolcers on September 29

The height and duration of this bounce will tell us how aggressive buyers and sellers are.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS FRIDAY – Not much has changed overnight. Global markets are trading higher and the SPY might have established a temporary support level this week. End of month fund buying will keep a small bid to the market today. The third revision to GDP was in line with expectations and PCE was a touch better than feared. Inflation in the EU fell to its lowest level since October 2021 (4.3% vs 5.2% expected).

Politicians are scrambling to sign a deal to keep the government shutdown brief.

Next week major economic releases will dominate the scene. Jobs data points, official PMIs and ISM manufacturing/services will give us a read on economic growth. In two weeks, JPM will kick earnings season off (October 13th).

From a technical perspective the market is oversold. Ideally we would see a nice hard drop and a violent bounce. That marks short term support, but we have not seen that type of price action. Instead, the market drifted down and we had a late round of buying Wednesday. That formed a D1 bullish hammer and we are seeing follow through buying. This is not much to lean into and we have not seen aggressive buying on heavy volume.

If you look at the price action from June, the market has been stuck in a horizontal trading range. We poked below it briefly this week and today we could rise back above SPY $433 (back into the range). 1OP is going to start the day on a bullish cycle. I would wait to see if the market can advance as it completes. I suspect that this gap up will be tested and that the first bearish cycle could fill in some of the gap. Global markets are up so the backdrop favors the long side this morning. During the first bearish cycle we want to see more than half of the gap preserved and ideally the high from Thursday is also preserved. That would set us up with a nice bullish cross that would push us to a new high of the day.

Of course, if we see stacked red candles and heavy volume in the first 30 minutes, we have to be watchful for a gap reversal. I feel the chances of this are fairly slim. The overnight news is slightly bullish and global markets are higher.

Support is at the low from yesterday and the high from yesterday. Resistance is at $433.

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