Daily Commentary: September 29, 2025

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Follow the Technicals

Posted by Pete Stolcers on September 29
www.oneoption.com

If you are trading the headlines, you are missing these moves.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS MONDAY – Negative headlines are a major distraction. If you get your information from social media, I can’t recall a time when the sentiment has been this bearish. I don’t know if this is sensationalism to get more clicks or if “gurus” actually feel this way.

The technicals are all you need. I mentioned last week that all moves below the EMA 8 have been buying opportunities the last six months. The dips have been brief and shallow and that is bullish. I don’t have to rationalize why the market is going higher, I just need to position myself on the long side.

This is a week of busy economic releases. Official PMIs, ISM Manufacturing/ISM services and all of the employment data (ADP, JOLTS, Challenger Gray & Christmas and the jobs report) will be released. Even if these numbers come in weak, I don’t believe they will lead to a big market sell off. That will only strengthen the odds for another rate cut or two this year. If the numbers are good, investors will rejoice that we are not going into a recession.

Seasonal weakness will shift to seasonal strength in a few weeks. Asset managers do not want to miss this move. If they have been waiting for a dip and they are under allocated, they will bid more aggressively with each passing week and the odds of a dip will decrease.

A government shutdown could happen and Trump seems prepared to play hardball. He wants to lay off government employees and this will give him a reason to. These events have not historically lead to big market drops because they always get resolved.

My comments sound very bullish so let me splash a little cold water on this. If we had a pullback in August and September I would be much more bullish than I am now. That drop would have provided us with a much better entry opportunity and the bounce would have fueled a move for a month or two. We could have taken longer term bullish swing trades with greater confidence and we could have stayed with them. We didn’t get that drop so we are stuck in this gradual float higher. We are in hit and run mode where we wait for these dips, we buy them and we exit when the market rallies well above the EMA 8.

Overseas markets were up slightly. China was up nicely and they reported a 20% surge in industrial profits.

If you didn’t take some long positions last week you are caught a bit flat footed. It’s OK, don’t force trades now. We don’t chase gaps up and we will have good entry points this week. There is a lot of news coming out and we should have decent price movement.

Support is at AVWAPQ and resistance is at the all-time high.

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