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Will A Shutdown Spark Selling?
www.oneoption.com
The government is likely to shut down as politicians dig in their heels.
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – The market dipped slightly last week and it has been able to find support. The price action has been rather lack luster and all eyes are on the economic releases this week.
Chicago PMI and JOLTS will be release after the open today. Tomorrow ADP and Challenger Gray & Christmas will provide some insight into employment. Analysts are expecting 52K new jobs this Friday. That would be a soft number, but buyers are focused on rate cuts.
Economic activity has been slowing the last few months, but the market has continued to float higher. If the market can avoid a drop over the next few weeks, the bid will grow. Seasonal strength will kick in and Asset Managers do not want to miss a year end rally.
The government is headed for a shutdown. Trump will test if his executive powers give him the right to lay government employees off during a shutdown. If history repeats itself, a deal will get done in the next week. The market is not overly concerned at this stage.
I don’t like the fundamental backdrop, but the technicals are strong. The dips have been brief and shallow and the market wants to go higher. I feel comfortable selling OTM puts on stocks I want to own at lower levels to generate income. If the market drops and I feel the need to hedge, I can short futures while it searches for support. This is easier than buying my puts in and the stocks I want to buy have relative strength so they will hold up well. When the market finds support I can exit the hedge. There’s a good chance I won’t even have to resort to this, but we always need to have a game plan for the worst outcomes.
Day trading has been challenging and the intraday ranges have been tight. I still prefer to buy dips, but on days like Monday, you are sitting on your hands the entire day waiting for signs of life. Wait for the pullback this morning to find support and look for stocks with relative strength. Remember we have two economic releases after the open.
Support is AVWAPQ and resistance is the high from Monday.
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