Closing Recap

Wednesday, April 24, 2024

U.S. stocks bounced between gains and losses, ultimately ending mixed as markets await more earnings and key economic data with GDP data tomorrow morning (8:30 AM) and then the PCE March inflation figures on Friday, right before the FOMC meeting next Wednesday. With no Fed speakers today (blackout period ahead of meeting), no fresh news on Middle East tensions, and only one in-line data point today (Durable Goods), the focus was on earnings, with Technology, Consumer Discretionary leading along with defensive Consumer Staples, REITs, and Utilities. Treasury yields recovered all of Tuesday’s declines with the 10-yr back above 4.66% while the buck edged higher. In social media news, META expected to report earnings tonight after the bell, while President Biden signed legislation on Wednesday that will ban TikTok if it continues to be owned by Chinese company ByteDance. The bill gives ByteDance one year before a ban would take effect. Dow component Boeing (BA) weighed on the Dow Jones, falling after a drop in deliveries and revenue decline; TSLA advanced despite weaker results that missed/came in well below last year numbers, as positive comments on Robotaxis and launching a more affordable model that can be produced on the same manufacturing lines helped sentiment. Semis rallied behind TXN earnings, AT&T (T) climbed on EPS beat, paid sub beat and higher FCF; toy retailers HAS/MAT rose on earnings. It wasn’t all wonderful as solar stocks tumbled on ENPH miss/lower guide, and transports hammered (Dow transports -2.3%) after airline HA, trucker ODFL, and rail NSC all disappointed-on earnings/commentary.

• Preview for tomorrow data: Real GDP likely grew 2.5% in 1Q, down from 3.4% prior and an average for the U.S. of 4.2% in 2H23; Personal Consumption expected to rise 3.0% (vs. 3.3% prior) with GDP Price index at 3.0% (prior 1.6%) and the core PCE Price Index Q/Q est. to rise to 3.4% (from 2.0% prior) – comes ahead of March PCE data Friday.
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• In Beverages & Food: AMZN said it will be offering a flat $9.99/month for unlimited grocery deliveries through Amazon Fresh, Whole Foods, as well as a broader offering of third-party retailers; TAP was downgraded to sell from neutral at Citigroup saying repeating a record 2023 may be a “mountain too hard to climb.” BG shares fell as Q1 sales of $13.42B missed the $13.96B estimate, but better adj EPS; noted sales from company’s largest agribusiness segment falls to $9.74B from $10.85B y/y; said rise in export volumes was offset by weak trading margin.
• In Retail: PLCE upgraded at B Riley to neutral from sell, saying funding from majority shareholder Mithaq Capital eases concern over an imminent bankruptcy filing, though cuts tgt to $7 from $12.

• In Online travel/Lodging: ABNB was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Mizuho and raised tgt to $200 from $150 saying the potential launch of sponsored listings is expected to generate double-digit EBITDA upside over the long-term. In Hotels, HLT Q1 results were mixed as EPS beat but revs of $2.57B missed the $2.93B estimate while reports revenue per available room, a hotel’s top-line performance metric, rose 2% year-on-year to $104.16 in Q1 and raised its outlook.

• In Oil Services: BKR reported a 2% EBITDA beat and FCF was nicely above Street ests. IET was above the top end of the guide while OFSE was a touch below the midpoint. 1Q IET orders should give confidence in the annual order outlook of $11.5B – $13.5B. New energy orders were an impressive $239MM. WFRD posted a beat and a guide-up, and WFRD posted the highest EBITDA margin in 15 years. ’24 EBITDA margins are now expected to be 25% vs these occurring in ’25. The 2Q guidance is above Street, and 2Q EBITDA margins should be ~25%.
• In E&P: MTDR reported 2Q24e oil volumes ~1% above consensus – and expectations to now be at the top-end of FY production guidance; EQT delivered a solid quarter with production 11% above consensus and EBITDAX 13% higher jump-starting the balance sheet deleveraging process post-Tug Hill, the focus may be on further curtailments necessitated by natural gas pricing; RRC topped Street EBITDA by ~8% on stronger NGL realizations while the company did not buy back shares in the quarter.

• In Payments: Dow component Visa (V) March quarter results featured a top- and bottom-line beat while the reiterated fiscal 2024 outlook implies lower second half of the year revenues. Overall spending trends remained solid, evidenced by an 8% year-over-year increase in payments volume, an 11% rise in processed transactions and a 16% gain in constant currency cross-border volume.
• In Consumer Lending: ENVA reported Q1 adjusted EPS upside of $1.91 (above ests) driven primarily by stronger-than-projected originations and ending loan balances, particularly for SMB; SYF Q1 adj EPS $1.18 missed the $1.34 estimate; Q1 net interest income (NII) rose 8.7% to $4.41 billion from $4.05 billion but below ests $4.45B; said interest and fees on loans increased 15% to $5.3 billion (shares jumped to 2-year highs).

• CSGP delivered solid 1Q24 results, with revenue finishing largely in line with consensus and adjusted EBITDA coming in above the Street’s expectations. Additionally, guidance for 2Q24 and 2024 came in primarily as expected.
• EGP reported a headline miss but adjusted for G&A was more in line. Importantly the FY guide was maintained. FFO came in at $1.98 vs Street at $2.01, primarily driven by G&A.
• EQR became the first Apartment REIT to report 1Q24 earnings, topping expectations as its core portfolio benefited from improving revenue (rent + occupancy) and expense tailwinds and by non-operating adjustments.

• In Life Sciences/Tools: TMO follows good earnings results from DHR in life sciences space yesterday as Q1 adj EPS $5.11 vs. est. $4.71; Q1 revs $10.34B vs. est. $10.17B; raises FY24 adjusted EPS view to $21.14-$22.02 from $20.95-$22.00 (est. $21.53) and raises FY24 revenue view to $42.3B-$43.3B.
• In Medical Devices: BSX boosted its 2024 adj EPS outlook to $2.29-$2.34 from prior forecast of $2.23-$2.27 after Q1 EPS/revs topped consensus ($0.56/$3.86B vs. est. $0.51/$3.69B); Organic sales +13.1% y/y, Cardiovascular sales +16.3% y/y, Cardiology sales +17.9% y/y, MedSurg sales +7.8% y/y.
• In Managed Care: HUM Q1 EPS was $7.23 (vs. $6.12 cons). MBR was slightly better Insurance segment, Inline at Consolidated Co level; noted utilization was in line with expectations in quarter, with slightly higher January and February, though saw favorability in March; affirmed adj EPS guide of ~$16 + benefit ratio of ~90%, raising MA membership growth by 50k; quarterly profit beat but withdrew its 2025 profit forecast, which it had slashed to $22 and $26 per share from $37 in January, citing more uncertainties.

• In Airlines: The White House unveiled new Transportation Department rules Wednesday requiring airlines to issue automatic cash refunds to passengers if their flights are canceled or significantly changed — by three hours for domestic routes and six hours for international. Automatic refunds also extend to a long delay with baggage reclaim or if paid-for ancillary services, such as Wi-Fi, aren’t provided.
• In Industrials: IEX delivered 1Q results with adj. EPS of $1.88, beating our $1.86 and consensus at $1.75. Organic sales came in at -6% compared to the Street at -6.6%. Total reported revenue was ~$801mm, slightly below the Street at $807.9mm. MAS Q1 sales missed while EPS beat; said Q1 North American sales in fell -2% while international sales fell -5%, hurt by soft demand in key markets of Europe and China.
• In Metals: a day after weak results/guidance from NUE and CLF sunk the steel sector, STLD reported mixed results as EPS topped consensus though sales came up a bit short (adj EBITDA $879Mm vs est. $861.6Mm on revs $4.694B vs est. $4.736B); gold miners weaken a third day after a monthly rally that pushed gold to record highs.

• In Defense: GD Q1 EPS $2.88 missed the $2.93 estimate after failing to deliver any G700 jets while facing sustained supply chain challenges and higher input costs; Q1 revs topped expectations.

• In Media: Citigroup upgraded SIRI upgraded from Sell to Neutral and downgraded LSXMA from Buy to Neutral saying they expected the LSXMA NAV discount to narrow – over the last few months, the NAV discount has indeed narrowed from ~40% to ~2% – now finds the risk-reward in both securities as relatively balanced. Pivotal Research also upgraded SIRI from Hold to Buy w/ $5.05 PT (from $4.90) saying SIRI is a free cash flow growth story, with a decent moat around their core in car business model, with stable to modestly growing revenue and EBITDA.
• In Internet/Social media Preview: META expected to report results after the close; Jefferies previews overall quarter saying they continue to recommend holding names poised to beat/raise in 1Q (BKNG, DASH, UBER), but also see some compelling entry points at stories disproportionally impacted by recent rate-driven softness (ACVA, CARG, Z). They see top-line growth as the key debate for 1Q earnings, especially after a series of disappointing outlooks last quarter (ABNB, BKNG, CARG, DASH, ETSY, EXPE, RDFN, YELP). GOOGL announced that third-party cookie deprecation on Chrome will be delayed until sometime in 2025 from the fourth quarter of 2024 (TTD rose on news).
• In Data Center Equipment/Comms: VRT shares surge to record high after raises FY24 adj. EPS forecast to the range of $2.29-$2.35 from prior $2.20-$2.26 and sees FY sales $7.54B-$7.69B vs. prior $7.52B-$7.66B; comes after beating Q1 top/bottom line saying strength in orders and acceleration of AI-driven demand boosted results.

• ASMI posted Q1 sales at the top end of guidance and ahead of estimates at EUR 639M (vs. Guide 620M / Cons 628M)—although down YoY while margins normalized with GM of 52.9% (vs. Cons 48.4%) and Operating Margins 30.0% (vs. Cons 24.0%).
• MU shares weaker after Digitimes reported HBM prices likely to fall in 2H24 due to intensified market competition; said the market believes that if even the AI semiconductor market share of Nvidia is likely to shrink, then it is expected to affect the High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) market, which will have an impact on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix
• SLAB shares tumbled after Q2 EPS guidance called for loss of (58c-70c) on revs $135M-$145M, below estimates for loss of (-$0.45) and $142M after Q1 results came in slightly better.
• TXN reported in line at $3.66B, with JunQ guided up ~4% q/q, in line but better than feared; for MarQ 1) Autos/Industrial both down q/q, seeing JunQ stabilizing Industrial trends, 2) 2024E Analog Pricing potentially down LSD% y/y, as it noted vs up 5%/15%/15% in 2023/22/21, 3) DOI at 235 days and expected to remain at elevated levels near-term, and 4) JunQ GMs potentially down to 54%, maintained CAPEX at ~$5B/year.
• Hard disk drive maker STX reported MarQ in-line $1.66B/$0.33 (cons $1.66B/$0.29), and guided JunQ to $1.85B/$0.70 (cons $1.83B/$0.60) as sees strong Data Center Nearline and Enterprise in US and China driving growth through the rest of the year and said pricing trending positive and expected to sustain through the year.