Closing Recap

Monday, December 01, 2025

U.S. stocks finished the day lower, giving back some of last week’s rebound as investors await key economic data this week and a handful of key tech earnings ahead of next week’s FOMC rate meeting. With the Fed in its pre-meeting blackout, Wall Street will likely focus on the ISM services surveys and a collection of labor indicators including ADP private payrolls, Challenger layoffs, October JOLTS and initial claims…though the November Nonfarm payrolls will be delayed until December 16^th (October 2025 release cancelled) after next week’s FOMC meeting. September US PCE and personal income & spending data, indicators closely watched by the Fed, round the week off on Friday. Markets are now signaling a December rate cut of 25 bps with latest survey results showing a 90% probability. President Trump said Sunday he has made his mind up about who will be Fed’s next chairman, and his chief economic adviser Kevin Hassett is seen as the likely choice, people familiar said last week. Stocks opened lower, managed to claw back losses all morning long before a late day slide pushed markets lower again. Not much in way of notable stock market news outside of Black Friday sales totals for retailers, and weakness in the crypto space as Bitcoin remains 30% below its October all-time highs. Energy was one of the few bright spots in the S&P 500 while utilities, industrials, REITs and healthcare sectors were the biggest drags all down 1% or more. Smallcap Russell 2000 underperformed after surging over 8% the last 5 days last week in rising hopes of a Fed rate cut next week. Volumes on Wall Street were lower in what was a slow return from the holiday weekend (or maybe just many shopping online today).

• ISM U.S. manufacturing activity index 48.2 in November (consensus 49.0) vs 48.7 in October while the prices paid index 58.5 in November (consensus 57.0) vs 58.0 in October; the employment index 44.0 in November vs 46.0 in October and the new orders index 47.4 in November vs 49.4 in October.

• February gold prices rose $19.90 or 0.46% to settle at $4,274.80 an ounce (6 week highs) while silver prices touch a new high with the front-month contract rising 3.5% to $58.148 a troy ounce. It’s the fifth consecutive session that silver rose and it has more than doubled so far this year.
• The Euro edged higher against the US dollar to 1.162, while the Yen/Dollar trade was active after overnight, the Bank of Japan adopted a more hawkish stance, gearing up for a potential December rate hike. The USD/JPY, which rose from 155 to a peak near 158 on November 20, has since retraced that move.
• Comments by the Bank of Japan weighed on global bond markets, lifting yields in Asia and the US with the 10-yr yield up 7bps to 4.09%. Treasury yields did pare their increase after data showed U.S. manufacturing fell for the ninth straight month in November, but the move was brief. The BoJ’s Ueda said on Monday the BOJ would consider the "pros and cons" of raising interest rates at its next policy meeting.
• Bitcoin prices tumbled as much as 8% (below $84K) before paring losses, possibly weighed down this morning amid the spike in Treasury yields.

• US Electric Vehicles: Cantor said EV sales reached a record high in the US in Q3, with ~410K EVs sold (According to Cox Automotive). This accounted for >10% of the total Auto market share in the U.S. for the first time in history. Cantor expects a very different story in Q4. With the expiration of the $7,500 EV Tax credit, EV sales declined materially from ~98,000 in September to ~75,000 in October. This accounted for ~6% of all new vehicle sales, a sharp decline from last month.
• In US Autos: Production at STLA French factories is set to drop by 11% over the next three years, according to company estimates cited by trade unions. Output at the company’s five Assembly factories in France is forecast to fall to 587,800 units by 2028, two trade union sources told Reuters, citing estimates presented by the company last week and confirming an earlier report by the Financial Times.

• AEO, HAS, MSNT, M, ROST, WMT, KSS among consumer names hitting 52-week highs today.
• CPNG shares fell after saying a data leak hit roughly 33.7 million user accounts and faces an investigation by South Korean authorities that the potential penalty could reach about $770 million.
• LEG shares jumped after SGI proposed to acquire all outstanding shares of the engineered products maker in an all-stock transaction valuing the target at $12 per share.

• In Energy stocks: KGS shares fell after EQT divests its remaining approx 11% stake; KGS announced ~9.77 mln share secondary offering by the Swedish private equity firm. Post-offering, EQT will not beneficially own any KGS shares and will no longer have the right to nominate members to co’s board of directors. NFE shares rise after regulators in Puerto Rico said late Friday, they had tentatively approved a contract with the embattled liquefied natural gas supplier, which has faced questions about its ballooning debt.
• In MLPs/Pipelines: TRGP said it will acquire Stakeholder Midstream for $1.25B in cash. Stakeholder provides natural gas gathering, treating, and processing services and crude gathering and storage services in the Permian Basin, including approximately 480 miles of natural gas pipelines, approximately 180 million cubic feet per day of cryogenic natural gas processing and sour treating capacity, carbon capture activities generating 45Q tax credits. EPD was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan as sees a balanced risk/reward at current share levels, noting the company’s EBITDA growth trails peers and cut MPLX to Neutral as well saying the stock’s outperformance in 2025 has left less room for upside relative to peers.
• In Utility/Solar: CSIQ shares rallied after saying it is transferring the assets of its Chinese unit to Canadian ownership to safeguard sales into the US as Washington steps up scrutiny of imports from the Asian nation; EXC shares slipped after announces private offering of $900 mln convertible bonds due 2029.

• In Payments: KLAR, AFRM, and Afterpay in “Buy Now, Pay Later” (BNPL) usage surged this Black Friday, rising 9% overall, with adoption especially strong among younger consumers: 41% of shoppers aged 16–24 used BNPL, and younger millennials increased their usage by an astonishing 87% compared with last year – Reuters. Attorney General Tong launches inquiry into buy now, pay later lenders saying products may expose consumers to unclear terms, hidden fees, and debt traps.
• In Fintech: CHYM was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Goldman Sachs saying the crux of their call is that the market is under appreciating the take rate tailwinds from the company’s new Chime Card, announced at its conference in September, and its work in the report suggests take rates are likely to come in meaningfully ahead of consensus expectations.
• In Banks: BKU was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies driven by a dual opportunity for upside, saying as a potential seller, it screens attractively amid a backdrop of accelerating bank M&A given its discounted P/TBV and strong presence in high-growth South Florida markets. Alternatively, as a standalone entity, believes loan growth could inflect higher in 2026 coupled with continued NIM expansion, which should support a higher valuation.
• In Insurance: GSHD was initiated with a Buy, $93 PT at Jefferies saying Goosehead has a unique personal-lines-focused broker model, an improving growth story in P&C, and exposure to favorable end-markets (IA/Direct) that are gaining share. Accelerating growth (~20% or 4x broker peers) at strong margins supports multiple Re-rating.

• ALT shares slipped after saying Chairman Jerry Durso will take over as CEO on January 1, 2026, succeeding Vipin Garg, who has led the company for seven years. Durso previously led Intercept Pharmaceuticals and spent over 20 years at SNY. ALT’s lead drug pemvidutide is being developed for liver disease and weight loss.
• BLTE said its experimental drug, tinlarebant, which targets Stargardt disease type 1 for a rare genetic eye disease met the main goal in a late-stage study. The company said the drug slowed the growth of damaging lesions in the retina by 36% compared to placebo in a study of 104 patients aged 12 to 20.
• EHAB, PNTG shares rose in the Home health space after CMS late Friday finalized a rate update down -1.3% for Home Health in 2026 compared to CY 2025, based on the finalized policies – seen as much better than expected.
• KALA shares rose after saying it enters into $6M securities purchase agreement with investor David e. Lazar who is appointed as Kala’s CEO and Chairman; says is continuing to evaluate and redevelop Co’s product candidates while actively exploring strategic opportunities.
• LLY cut prices of its Zepbound drug single-dose vials on its direct-to-consumer platform after it lowered prices of its multi-dose pens last month. The 2.5 milligram starting dose of Zepbound will now be available for $299 a month, down from $349. The 5 milligram dose will cost $399 a month, compared with its previous price of $499. The 7.5 milligram, 10 milligram, 12.5 milligram and 15 milligram doses will all now cost $449, down from $499.
• MRK says the FDA has granted fast track designation to its Alzheimer’s candidate MK-2214. The company will present new data this week on MK-2214 and another Alzheimer’s program, MK-1167.
• PTCT was downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital but raise tgt to $91 from $82 saying with favorable developments such as Sephience off to a strong start – and RBC’s new physician survey indicating good uptake should continue, at least for the near term, its thesis has mostly played out.
• REGN is teaming up with Tessera to develop TSRA-196, a one-time gene editing therapy for alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency, which affects ~200k people in the US and Europe. Regeneron is putting in $150M and the two will split costs and profits 50/50. IND filing expected by year end.
• UNH has agreed to sell its last South American business Banmedica to Brazilian private equity group Patria Investments (PAX) for $1 billion, Reuters reported Sunday citing sources
• Vaccine makers (MRNA, NVAX, BNTX, PFE) were weaker after FDA official, Vinay Prasad, ties 10 deaths to the shots, calls for stricter vaccine regulation, in leaked memo as per STAT News. https://tinyurl.com/4vst9zbs

• Aerospace: Goldman Sachs initiates coverage of electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft sector (EVTOL) with a selective view with BETA Initiate Buy and $47 PT, JOBY Sell rated and $10 PT, ACHR at Neutral and $11 PT and EVEX Neutral. Advancements in technology and US reshoring efforts are improving EVTOL certification visibility. Said prefers vertically Integrated, aftermarket-rich models with strong revenue visibility and capacity. Airbus EADSY shares fell after reports that the company has discovered an industrial quality issue regarding dozens of A320-family aircraft. The flaw is delaying some deliveries but there are no immediate indications that it has reached aircraft in service, Reuters reported.
• Defense: KTOS was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at B Riley with $105 tgt saying sees 38% upside and an associated more favorable risk-reward equation for a company with ample proprietary IP enabling an Array of affordable solutions.
• In Metals & Mining: Gold miner Barrick (B) said it is exploring an initial public offering (IPO) of its North American gold assets while would maintain a significant controlling interest in newco; said if IPO pursued, newco to include Nevada gold mines and Fourmile discovery; steel producers NUE, STLD hit 52-week highs.
• In Chemicals: ASH shares jumped after Standard Investments LLC and affiliates reported a stake in Ashland Inc. (ASH) in a Schedule 13D filed with the U.S. SEC with a November 21, 2025 event date.

• In EDA Sector/IT Services: SNPS shares jumped after announces a strategic partnership with NVDA as the chip maker has invested $2B in Synopsys stock at $414.79 per share. https://tinyurl.com/4w9t57ur ; ACN and OpenAI today announced a collaboration to help enterprise clients unlock new levels of innovation and growth by bringing agentic Ai systems into the core of business.
• In Telecom/Towers: AMT and CCI were both downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight saying collecting rent from SATS may prove challenging for TowerCos, despite having a strong legal cases for contracts to be honored. The potential for EchoStar reserves/churn could weigh on 2026 growth. With potential negative catalysts outweighing positives, the firm said it is moving to the sidelines.
• In Software: MDB is expected to report earnings after the close tonight; Unity (U) shares outperformed after being upgraded to Buy at Arete today with $48 PT and also as Edgewater was positive, saying feedback on Vector mixed but positives outweigh negatives.
• In Memory: Keybanc noted for memory sector (MU), inSpectrum released its memory contract pricing for the month of November. 8Gb DDR4 DRAM pricing was +66.7% M/m and 137% q/q, and 8Gb DDR5 DRAM pricing was +6.8% M/m and +28.7% q/q, while 512Gb NAND pricing was +30.2% M/m and 87.8% q/q. KEYB views the November pricing results as positive for DRAM and NAND. Also, MU will invest 1.5 trillion yen ($9.6B) to build a new plant in Hiroshima in western Japan to produce advanced high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips, the Nikkei reported. The U.S. chipmaker aims to start construction at an existing site in May next year.