Closing Recap

Tuesday, December 02, 2025

US equities returned to green with modest gains in futures overnight, while silver, gold and oil futures all faded (though nat gas was slightly higher early, perhaps on the storm moving up the east coast). With no economic data to serve as a catalyst and investors in holiday mode, stocks traded most sideways early. By mid-morning, early breadth remained flattish in an up tape as small caps split the large cap indices with IWM (+0.21%) versus SPY (+0.17%) and QQQ (+0.64%). Early sector performance saw Technology (+1.00%), Industrials (+0.19%) and Financials (-0.07%) outperforming among S&P sector ETFs, while Materials (-0.97%), Consumer Staples (-1.06%) and Energy (-1.34%) paced the underperformers with only two sectors in the green versus nine declining. Once again, investors were looking to tech to push the market higher.

In data of note today, according to @bespokeinvest, the one-year period in SPY’s history most similar to the past year was the stretch from 10/18/02 to 10/17/03, with the following twelve months posting an additional gain of almost 8%. On bonds, @charliebilello noted the US bond market has seen its longest drawdown in history (64 months). In consumer land, Adobe Analytics says US online shopping spend jumped 7.7% during the five-day period following Thanksgiving to a record $44.2B. Lastly, as the market once again looks to big tech for leadership, @DataTrekMB noted big tech, is responsible for 49% of the S&P 500’s total gain of 16.4% this year.

Following some midday profit taking, stocks were strengthening again into the final hour of trading. Breadth improved to 4:3 favoring advancers, while the sector disparity also leveled out, with Technology (+1.14%), Industrials (+1.00%) and Communications (+0.48%) outperforming, while Consumer Staples (-0.77%), Materials (-0.89%) and Energy (-1.46%) led the underperformers now with five sectors gaining versus six declining. Tomorrow brings a new round of economic data, so Fed watchers will be on alert and trading should pick up a bit.

• January WTI crude futures slumped overnight and continued lower through the first half of the session before paring declines in the afternoon. Ongoing expectations of a supply glut and some concern on the demand side ahead of the upcoming Fed meeting continue to pressure crude, but more combative comments from Putin today offset some of the supply pressure. Futures settled -$0.68/bbl, or -1.15%, at $58.64.

• In Specialty Retail: jeweler, SIG reported a Q3 EPS/sales beat but issued lower Q4 outlook; raised FY26 adj EPS view to $8.43-$9.59 from $8.04-$9.57 (est. $9.20) and guides FY26 rev view to $6.70B-$6.83B from $6.67B-$6.82B (but below est. $6.83B), while narrows FY26 comp sales view to (0.2%)-1.75% from (0.75%)-1.75%.
• In Electronic Retail: IRBT said in an SEC 8-K filing that it “is unlikely that ongoing review of strategic alternatives will result in any transaction being consummated outside of a bankruptcy process.”
• In Home Furnishings: Barclays noted pricing update for November showed modest changes as WSM remained Surgical in November with gradual changes M/m, while RH had few changes/ARHS none after its increases in Oct. Barclays notes this is becoming much more important for margins.

• Food Delivery/Ride Hailing: Shares of CART, DASH declined after a report in the Information said that AMZN is testing ultrafast delivery which will include grocery and fast-moving consumer goods.
• In Theme Parks: FUN was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Truist, though lowered tgt to $23 from $27 saying the company’s new CEO sounds promising and brings a greater sense of urgency to unload underperforming parks and does not see a bankruptcy for Six Flags, at least in the near- to mid-term.
• In Cruise line sector: Truist lowered its tgt on NCLH to $26 from $31 (maintain buy) and cut RCL to $321 from $333 (Maintain hold) saying their lengthy conversations over the past month with senior executives in the travel industry and examining big data on future cruise bookings and pricing indicate that supply for the contemporary-mass market segment is slightly higher than that of demand.

• In Electric vertical takeoff and landing Aircraft sector (EVTOL) sector: EVEX said it has selected BETA to supply electric pusher motors for its conforming prototypes and production aircraft. With a current backlog of 2,800 eVTOLs, Eve is strengthening its supply chain through this collaboration. The agreement represents a potential 10-year opportunity for Beta of up to $1 billion.
• In Aerospace: BA CFO, speaking at UBS Conference, said that expect deliveries to be up in both 737, 787 jets; is confident on delivering $10B target; expects 737-10 to be certified later this year; said will start forecasting cash margins improve next year and sys that higher deliveries will be large driver of positive cash flow next year.
• In Utilities: strength early in the nuclear plays with LEU, NNE, OKLO, SMR all showing strength; Forbes reported OKLO is closer to a “paper reactor” than a utility play. You’ve got a roughly $14B market cap on zero revenue, an NRC application that was previously denied, a 1,350 MW pipeline that likely does not translate to real revenue until late in the decade, and heavy dilution risk from a $3.5B shelf. All while SMR peers like NuScale, X-energy and Kairos already have approvals, big equity checks and concrete going in the ground.
• In Materials: Rare earth stocks CRML, TMC, MP, METC, USAR shares advanced, strong on the day; Reuters reported China has issued the first batch of new rare earth export licenses that should accelerate shipments to certain customers. The approvals come after months of disruption triggered by China’s introduction of rare earth export controls in April at the height of the trade war.
• In Chemicals: Bayer (BAYRY) shares jumped after saying it welcomed the U.S. Solicitor General’s support for a Supreme Court review of a case that could curtail long-running litigation regarding its Roundup weed-killer. Bayer said the gov’t support would be significant as the Court weighs its petition, arguing that federal pesticide law preempts state-level failure-to-warn claims. This could limit tens of thousands of lawsuits alleging that the company’s Roundup weed-killer causes cancer. HUN said it is currently experiencing an unplanned outage at its Polyurethanes facility located in Rotterdam, Netherlands which will likely have a negative impact on Q4’25 adjusted EBITDA of approximately $10M.

• In Crypto: IREN shares fell after announces private offering of $1 billion of convertible bonds due 2032 and $1 billion of convertible bonds due 2033 and said it will sell ordinary shares in a registered direct offering.
• In Insurance: KBW Inc said they estimate November 2025’s industry-wide homeowners renewal rate change at +5.9% Y/y (October 2025: +5.7%), led by Erie’s +9.0% increase. Most homeowners insurers (ALL, TRV, GSHD) are still raising rates, reflecting still high (but declining) reinsurance costs, stable attachment points, and ongoing significant weather-related losses, with the combined impact (as is typical) varying materially by individual insurer.
• In Commercial Real Estate: Barclay’s initiated CBRE at Overweight and $190 PT and NMRK Overweight and $21 PT with Equal Weight ratings on JLL ($351 PT) and CWK ($18 PT) in Commercial Real Estate saying they anticipate the CRE market will continue its gradual recovery and believe CBRE and NMRK are best positioned to outperform.
• In Brokers & Exchanges: CME hits second-highest monthly volume ever as November Average Daily Volume 33.1M contracts, up 10%.

• ARWR said it receives FDA breakthrough therapy designation for Plozasiran in severe hypertriglyceridemia.
• JANX shares slid after issued interim data from an early-stage trial of its experimental therapy for an advanced form of prostate cancer that disappointed Wall Street; analysts note a decline in the efficacy profile of the drug.
• JSPR reports positive preliminary data from etesian study of briquilimab in asthma and findings from Beacon study internal investigation saying the completion of internal Beacon study investigation noting no deviations or issues with drug product utilized and that briquilimab was well tolerated in study, demonstrating a favorable safety profile.
• SGMO said receives U.S. FDA fast track designation for st-503 for the treatment of small fiber neuropathy.
• VTYX shares slide after revises guidance for topline data release from interim analysis of phase 2 RP trial to Q1 2026; delayed the data readout from a mid-stage trial of its VTX2735 asset.

• In Telecom: TMUS upgraded to Sector Weight from Underweight at Keybanc saying they continue to see structural, cyclical, and company-specific challenges for T-Mobile, which it will continue to highlight, though it thinks the risk/reward appears neutral at these levels. The next catalyst comes with Q4 earnings and TMUS’s 2026/2027 guide.
• In Media/Leisure: EB shares jumped after Bending Spoons said it was buying the company in an all-cash deal worth about $500M, taking it private at $4.50 a share. The company already owns Vimeo, Evernote, Meetup, and WeTransfer, and says it wants to lean in on product: better search and discovery, AI tools.
• In Robotics: SYM was downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman Sachs following the 260% increase in the stock YTD (vs. the S&P 500 up 16%) and 54% increase (vs. the S&P 500 up 2%) in the stock since the company’s modestly above consensus 4QFY25 report in late November. EBITDA growth has been solid driven by WMT (which accounted for 85% of its revenue in the just completed FY25), with FY25 adjusted EBITDA growth of 142% YoY.

• IT Services & Consulting: ICFI was upgraded to Buy from Hold and raise PT to $115 from $90 at Canaccord saying the company saw major setbacks in 2025 as 43% of its sales are tied to the U.S. federal government…but believes the value of ICF’s resilient franchise is being obscured by cyclical rather than structural challenges.
• President Trump praised Michael and Susan Dell after they pledged $250 for each of 25 million U.S. children under age 10, a $6.25 billion donation expanding the “Invest America” initiative tied to Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill, which grants $1,000 to children born between 2025 and 2028. The Dell funding targets children not covered by the government program, focusing on ZIP codes with median household incomes below $150,000.

• In Semiconductors: CRDO shares rallied on results and guidance, as Q2 profit and revenue topped estimates, reflecting continued build-out of AI training and inference clusters; beat expectations in the OctQ with REV/EPS $268M/$0.67 above consensus $247M/$0.51 and guided JanQ strongly to $340M, ~38% above $247M consensus. MRVL is in advanced talks to acquire chip startup Celestial Ai in a cash-and-stock deal worth multiple billions of dollars, the Information reported on Monday, citing people with knowledge of the deal. The total deal price, including earnouts from product milestones could be higher than $5B – Reuters. AMD announced today an expanded collaboration with HPE, unveiling the ‘Helios’ open rack‑scale AI architecture, with HPE among the first adopters.
• In Semi equipment: TER upgraded to Buy from Hold and raise PT from $162 to $225 at Stifel saying looking toward 2026/beyond, expects growth to accelerate reflecting a favorable, structural shift in Teradyne’s test revenue composition (even before considering potential share gain in the Ai GPU/ASIC market). AMAT tgt was raised to $285 from $240 at Keybanc as continues to believe AMAT shows Superior relative valuation vs peers which it thinks have higher embedded expectations.