Closing Recap

Wednesday, December 03, 2025

U.S. stocks closed higher in another lethargic trading day as Wall Street awaits more crucial economic data and the FOMC policy meeting for the next major market move direction. With today’s market advance, major averages have now risen seven of the last eight trading days after a rough start in November. Expectations of a year-end Fed cut – and faster easing under a more dovish post-Powell leadership (which is expected to be current White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett) continue to weigh on the dollar and push Treasury yields lower. With the government shutdown delaying both the October and November NFP reports, today’s ADP print was especially important. The ADP private payrolls report came in at the worst level in over 2-years, as U.S. employment decreased by -32,000 private sector jobs in November, adding to bets the Fed will cut rates next week when they meet. The rising rate cut expectations boosted the Smallcap Russell 2000 (benefits from lower rates) and interest rate sensitive sectors such as homebuilders and lending stocks. Lots of stock movers in tech space on earnings overnight (ASAN, MCHP, MRVL, CRWD, GTLB, OKTA, PSTG) while attention turns to CRM, SNOW, PATH, AI, NCNO results tonight in tech and FIVE, PVH in retailers. Speaking of Technology, the XLK posted its 8^th straight winning day, though nearly all eleven S&P sectors closed higher (Utilities XLU ended lower). Stock market action remains quiet the first few days of the week, edging higher on light volumes as markets await the next market catalyst.

• September import prices unchanged vs. consensus +0.1% and vs Aug +0.1% while U.S. export prices unchanged (vs consensus +0.1%) and vs August +0.1%; Sept non-petroleum import prices +0.2%, y/y +0.8%; U.S. Sept Petroleum import prices -1.5% vs Aug -0.3% and U.S. Sept y/y import prices +0.3%, export prices +3.8%.
• September Industrial Production rose +0.1% vs. consensus unchanged and above August (-0.3%), U.S. Sept capacity utilization rate slides to 75.9% below consensus 77.3% and in-line with August. Sept manufacturing output unchanged (consensus +0.1%) vs Aug +0.1% (previous +0.1%); cap use 75.5% vs Aug 75.6%.
• ISM non-manufacturing sector (services) PMI 52.6 in November above consensus 52.1 and vs 52.4 in October; business activity index 54.5 in November vs 54.3 in October, employment index 48.9 in November vs 48.2 in October, prices paid index 65.4 in November vs 70.0 in October and new orders index 52.9 in November vs 56.2 in October.
• U.S. S&P Global November final composite PMI at 54.2 and U.S. S&P Global November final services PMI at 54.1.

• In Energy & Materials, January WTI crude oil rose $0.31 or +0.53% to settle at $58.95 per barrel while Brent crude gained $0.22 or 0.35% to $62.67 per barrel. Natural gas rises above $5.00 mln btus, a 35-month high on record flows to liquefied Natural gas (LNG) export plants and forecasts for colder weather. Lumber falls to its lowest price in 14 months.
• The euro hit 6-week highs vs. the dollar reaching $1.1677, the highest since October 20. The dollar index (DXY) was down -0.5% to 98.85 to the lowest since October 29. The greenback extended losses against the euro after the ADP employment report showed that U.S. private payrolls unexpectedly declined in November, raising rate cut hopes.

• In Dollar/Discount Stores: DLTR reported a Q3 EPS/sales beat ($1.21/$4.7B vs. est. $1.08/$4.69B) and Q3 same-store net sales were up 4.2% while raises FY25 Adj EPS to $5.60–$5.80 from $5.32-$5.72, while FY25 sales narrowed to $19.35B–$19.45B from $19.3B-$19.5B (vs $19.433B est). FIVE reports after the close, DG tomorrow morning.
• In Department Stores: Macy’s (M) Q3 handily beat Q3 estimates as EPS $0.09/$4.71B sales topped ests (-$0.14)/$4.62B on Q3 comp sales up 2.5% on owned basis, though earnings guidance for the holiday quarter fell short of analysts’ estimates as sees Q4 EPS $1.35-$1.55 (vs. est. $1.58) though on better sales.
• In Restaurants: WEN was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan (tgt to $9 from $12), moving to the sidelines pending a more defined strategy from a permanent management team. Wendy’s chances of a U.S. turnaround through meaningful unit volume expansion are a "very low probability outcome" in the next three years.
• In Home Furnishing Retail: Wayfair (W) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies with an unchanged price target of $94 saying with web traffic revealing a slow start to the official kick-off for holiday shopping and consumer survey data signaling a downshift in go-forward buying propensity on the marketplace, risk/reward skews more balanced.

• In RVs/towables: THO Q1 EPS $0.41 vs. est. $0.18 and sales $2.38B vs. est. $2.13B; Q1 gross margin 13.4%; Q1 net income $21.6M vs. est. $8.8M; guides FY EPS $3.75-$4.25 vs. est. $4.07 and outlook 2026 consolidated net sales in the range of $9.0B-$9.5B vs. est. $9.47B; guidance assumes low- to mid-single digit retail decline in North America.
• In Casinos & Gaming: Fanatics announced today it will be launching prediction market services in 10 states. Fanatics Betting and Gaming CEO Matt King made the announcement in a CNBC interview. By the end of the week, those services will be offered in 24 total states.

• MLPs/Pipelines: Wells Fargo said they are cautious Midstream primarily due to a muted liquids (oil/NGLs) fundamental backdrop and valuation. Within the group, the firm is positive on Natural gas pipelines which are driven by Ai, LNG, and industrial demand. Top Picks: DTM, KMI, TRP, and WMB. Midstream Tracking to Underperform Market in 2025. After 3 out of 4 years of outperformance, the AMZ and AMNA are on track to materially underperform the SPX this year. Year to date, the AMZ and AMNA have posted total returns of 12% and 5%, respectively, compared to 18% for the S&P500.
• In Truckers/Logistics: ODFL reported November tonnage down -10% y/y, a slight improvement from Oct.’s – 11.6% decline, but a step-down from Q3’s -9% average. Citigroup noted its mid-quarter update represents the worst volume growth among peers, reflecting the challenging demand environment; SNDR was upgraded from Market Perform to Outperform at Raymond James given a setup that increasingly favors exposure to Dedicated and Intermodal growth.
• In Airlines, Aerospace & Defense: Airbus (EADSY) cut its 2025 delivery target to around 790 commercial aircraft, 30 fewer than previously expected, but maintained financial goals following a quality issue with fuselage panels on its popular A320 family of jets. DAL said that demand for the December quarter remained "healthy" and that trends were strong for early 2026 and also said it expects a $200 million impact to its fourth quarter pre-tax profit from the government shutdown in the United States which ended last month. BA shares fell after the U.S. FTC said the company must divest several Spirit assets to proceed with its merger.
• In Metals & Mining: Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange advanced today, touching a record high of $11,434.50, boosted by supply concerns and tighter availability of metal in warehouses. Reuters noted adding to the bullish sentiment, the LME data showed net fresh cancellations of 50,725 tons in warehouses in Asia on Tuesday, bringing the available, or on-warrant, LME copper stocks to their lowest since July at 105,275 tons; shares of FCX, SCCO, TECK, RIO and other copper producers saw early strength.

• In FinTech: XYZ shares bounced after tumbling yesterday following comments that indicated Square Q425 GPV growth will decelerate sequentially, implying it will be slightly weaker than Street expectations; FISV shares bounced early following form 4 filings showing insiders CFO and officer Rosman bought shares on open market.
• In Insurance: BWIN announced the $1.026 billion upfront cash+stock (+$320m earnout+deferred) acquisition of CAC Group. Using the max consideration, the price equals 10.4x pro forma (with synergies) 2025 AEBITDA. Importantly, the transaction is expected to be neutral.
• In Crypto: MSTR Chairman Michael Saylor told Reuters on Wednesday that his company is engaging with MSCI over an upcoming decision on whether to exclude it from the index provider’s indices. MSCI has said it plans to decide by January 15 if it will remove companies whose business model is to buy Cryptocurrencies amid concerns, they resemble investment funds, which are currently not eligible for index inclusion.
• In REITs: ARE shares fell after cutting their dividend by 45%.

• ADCT reported the death of two patients in a late-stage trial for treating an aggressive cancer that starts in white blood cells; its phase 3 study evaluated the safety and efficacy of Zynlonta in combination with glofitamab, to treat patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma that hasn’t responded to treatment or had returned.
• BDTX said its experimental cancer drug silevertinib met main goal with 60% tumor response and 86% brain response in 43 lung cancer patients with rare EGFR mutations; said they plan to start a mid-stage trial of silevertinib in patients with glioblastoma in the first half of 2026.
• BMY announces continuation of Cobenfy ADEPT-2 phase 3 study in psychosis associated with Alzheimer’s Disease. Cobenfy, currently approved for the treatment of schizophrenia in adults, has the potential to be the first treatment in a new class of pharmacologic therapies targeting agitation and psychosis based on muscarinic receptor agonism.
• CAPR shares jump; said that in a Phase 3 trial, its cell therapy significantly improved muscle and heart function among patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD); the FDA had rejected the treatment in July, telling the company that its application, based on mixed results from a prior study, lacked “substantial evidence of effectiveness.”
• PHVS said its oral, on-demand treatment for the swelling “attacks” commonly experienced by patients with a genetic condition called hereditary angioedema achieved the goals of a Phase 3 clinical trial.
• SAVA discloses FDA requires additional information in connection with IND application for simufilam in tuberous sclerosis complex-related epilepsy.
• Leerink with some Healthcare ratings changes: AUPH was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform with a $16 price target, BMRN downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform with a $60 price target and IFRX downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Leerink. The firm also upgraded DSGN to Outperform from Market Perform and SPRB upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Leerink.
• Morgan Stanley with some Healthcare/Biotech rating changes: REGN was downgraded to Equal Weight from OW at Morgan Stanley noting shares have rebounded off the lows earlier this year following progress with Eylea HD approvals and strong Dupixent sales trends and is trading in-line with their tgt. VRTX was upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley and tgt to $516 from $438 as they take a more positive view of the company’s kidney franchise pipeline ahead of key de-risking Ph3 data it expects in 2026. Lastly, NVS was upgraded to overweight after a recent valuation pullback, supported by an improving portfolio mix and the upcoming Rhapsido launch.

• In Security Software: CRWD delivered key metrics above expectations punctuated by NNARR of $265M (above consensus of $239M) and raised 2HFY26 assumptions to 50%-plus yr-yr growth (from 40%-plus previously) – resulting in Total ARR growth of 23% (from 22% previously). OKTA delivered a Q3 print beating on top/bottom line while showing deceleration in cRPO growth, subscription revenue growth and Q4 cRPO guidance was modestly below consensus.
• In Storage: PSTG shares tumble as Q3 results beat, driven by strength in enterprise and sustained momentum in Evergreen/One and modern virtualization solutions but mgmt noted it will not be providing specific information on shipments to hyperscaler customers going forward. Cowen noted the company is guiding for a significant increase in OpEx which puts the OM expansion thesis on the sideline. BOX following FQ3 results that were impressive across all key KPIs but sees negative reaction to a few below the line variances.
• In Software: GTLB shares fell as management called out headwinds in PubSec as a result of the government shutdown, and softness in SMB persisting this quarter, weighing on Q3 growth, driving growth deceleration and soft F4Q guidance though a permanent CFO is announced, removing an overhang. ASAN Q3 revenue and operating margin beat and FY26 revenue and operating income raise ahead of the Q3 beat combined with continued bullish commentary on AI opportunity and stronger gross retention rates all contribute to Asana’s solid Q3.
• In Hardware: Bernstein noted on AAPL tracker checks that Global iPhone revenue up 40% MoM, 14% YoY, with highest ever unit market share of 24.2%, while Evercore noted App Store revenue growth deaccelerated in November, with a +6% Y/y increase compared to +8% the previous month. The softness in Gaming, particularly in China and Japan, was a major drag, with these regions seeing declines of -6% and -13% Y/y, respectively.
• In Robotics: shares of SYM, SERV, TER, RR, AEVA, TSLA saw strength after Politico reported five months after releasing a plan to accelerate the development of artificial intelligence, the Trump administration is turning to robots. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has been meeting with robotics industry CEOs and is “all in” on accelerating the industry’s development, according to three people familiar with the discussions who were granted anonymity to share details. The administration is considering issuing an executive order on robotics next year, according to two of the people.
• In Media: NFLX shares fell in reaction to Reuters report saying its bid for WBD’s streaming & studio assets would add limited subscriber upside, as most Netflix customers already have HBO Max.

• ALAB shares rebounded after falling over -13% Tuesday as the stock reacted negatively to an announced partnership between AMZN and NVDA coming out of AWS Re:Invent on fears that ALAB’s switch opportunity could be crimped in an NVLink environment at AWS. Stifel said their view is that this reaction is misplaced and the content opportunity remains robust for ALAB across NVLink and open standard environments.
• MCHP positively preannounced Q3 revenues of ~$1.15B (+12% y/y) vs. the prior midpoint of $1.13B and Non-GAAP EPS is now expected to be $0.40, vs. the previous $0.37 midpoint, provided in the guidance on November 6, 2025.
• MU, SNDK shares slipped early after reports Samsung will supply about half of the memory for NVDA’s 2nd gen SOCAMM in 2026, roughly 10B gigabits, or ~830M units of 24Gb LPDDR, equal to about 5% of its DRAM output, with SK Hynix taking 6–7B Gb and Micron $MU 3–4B Gb.