Closing Recap

Friday, December 05, 2025

U.S. stocks closed the day and week in positive territory as the S&P 500 (SPX) moved within 25-points of a fresh all-time high (high today 6,895 vs. 6,920.34 high on 10/29) before paring gains, but posted its 9th win in last 10-days ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. Stocks have been moving on rate cut odds rising amid weaker jobs data (ADP private payrolls) and in-line inflation data (today PCE), that’s why the market has been up almost every day. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 0.31%, the Nasdaq climbed 0.91%, and the Dow climbed 0.5% with broad gains but S&P Technology led as the XLK posted its 10th straight winning day along with a 10^th straight win for Dow Transports. Volumes most of the week were “soft” as we await next week’s FOMC meeting. Smallcap Russell 2000 edged lower after solid gains this week and not far from their all-time high 2,541.67 on 10/15 this year. Still no lift in crypto with Bitcoin falling -3% today below $90K. The biggest weekly sector winners were Energy, Tech and Consumer. Healthcare/Biotech in focus this weekend with the 67th American Society of Hematology (ASH) Annual Meeting is taking place this weekend December 6–9, 2025, in Orlando, Florida, focusing on Oncology: Bispecific antibodies, ADCs, and Car-T updates for hard-to-treat blood cancers. Rare Hematologic Diseases: Gene Therapies and RNAi for hemophilia and sickle cell.

Interesting stats: @MarketTell says on “X”, “Should $VIX close lower again Friday, it would mark the ninth down day in the past ten sessions. That’s led to a higher $SPX the following session only 8 out of 24 occurrences (33%) since 2000.” @charliebilello notes on “X”, “The S&P 500’s P/E ratio has moved up to 26, which is 31% higher than the historical average since 1989 (19.8). This is the 3rd straight year of multiple expansion for the index. (note: using trailing 12 month operating EPS, estimates for Q4 EPS).” Also, The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 22.4. This P/E ratio is above the 5-year average (20.0) and above the 10-year average (18.7). per @factset. Jobs also remain a problem, as @charliebilello noted on “X”, US employers have announced 1.2 million job cuts so far this year, the highest total since 2020 (recession) and before that 2008-2009 (recession).”

Possible S&P 500 inclusions with announcement possibly expected tonight at 5:15 PM ET. Stephens analysts noted MRVL and CVNA are two of the next most likely candidates for inclusion in the S&P 500, according to Stephens. S&P Dow Jones Indices, which could announce additions and deletions to the S&P 500 late Friday, may also add CRH as well. The analyst also sees VRT, ALNY and ARES as possible candidates to be added to the Benchmark index.

• Sept overall PCE price index +0.3%, in-line with consensus +0.3% and the August reading while Y/y headline PCE rose  +2.8%, also in-line with consensus +2.8% and slightly above the August +2.7%.
• September core PCE price index rose +0.2%, in-line with consensus and August +0.2% reading while core PCE Y/Y rose +2.9%, slightly above consensus +2.8% and in-line with August +2.9%.
• University of Michigan surveys of consumers sentiment prelim Dec 53.3 above consensus 52.0 and vs final Nov 51.0; current conditions index prelim Dec 50.7 (consensus 51.3) vs final Nov 51.1 and the expectations index prelim Dec 55.0 (consensus 51.2) vs final Nov 51.0.
• University of Michigan surveys of consumers 1-year inflation outlook prelim Dec 4.1% vs final Nov 4.5% while the University of Michigan surveys of consumers 5-year inflation outlook prelim Dec 3.2% vs final Nov 3.4%.

• February gold ends the day flat – settling at $4,243 an ounce (off morning highs of $4,290.50) and little changed from last Friday’s closing level of $4,249.10. Silver prices hit record highs above $59 an ounce extending its yearly advance to more than 100% (up over 4% this week). Precious metals rose as the dollar slid amid growing expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut next week pressured the greenback. The dollar index (DXY) was flat at 98.99, not far from Thursday’s five-week low of 98.765. The euro was up slightly, not far from Thursday’s three-week high of $1.1681.
• In Energy, U.S. WTI crude oil futures settle at $60.08, rising $0.41 or 0.69% and ending the week with gains of about 2.6% while NYMEX natural gas prices rose 22.60 cents or 4.46% today and gained 43.90 cents per million British thermal units, or 9.05% to settle at $5.2890 per million British thermal units this week – now up 7 straight weeks (rising 75% during that stretch) and a highest settlement value since Wednesday, Dec. 21, 2022.
• Baker Hughes reports the U.S. rig count is up five from last week to 549 with oil rigs up six to 413, gas rigs down one to 129 and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at seven. The U.S. rig count is down 40 rigs from last year’s count of 589 with oil rigs down 69, gas rigs up 27 and miscellaneous up two. The U.S. offshore rig count is up one to 19.

• In Apparel & Accessories: VSCO shares jumped after a double beat, a huge margin beat and a significant full year guide in their Q3 earnings report; Q3 adj. EPS $(0.27) vs est $(0.59) on revs $1.47B vs $1.410B with same store & direct sales +7%, while adj gross margin 36.5% vs FS 34.1%; guides both Q4 EPS and revs above consensus.
• In Sporting Goods Retail: SPWH shares tumbled after posting in-line Q3 results but flagged a demand downshift beginning mid-October and persisting into November, prompting a FY25 guidance cut (cuts FY25 adjusted EBITDA view to $22M-$26M from $33M-$45M) as the new outlook implies another promotional 4FQ that will pressure margins.
• In Autos: EV charging company CHPT advanced after posting Q3 revenue $10M ahead of consensus (or the midpoint rev guide), with residential product traction delivering upside. In used cars (KMX, CVNA), monthly Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index rose to 205.4, reflecting a 1.3% increase in November’s wholesale used-vehicle prices compared to October. The index is mostly unchanged compared to November 2024. The long-term average monthly move for November is a decrease of 0.6%. Non-adjusted wholesale vehicle prices fell 0.3% from October and are now flat y/y.

• In Nuclear/SMR: OKLO unveiled up to $1.5B "at-the-market" equity offering program; OKLO initiated at Buy and $135 tgt at Needham reflecting its advantaged regulatory position, diversified fuel strategy, and one of the strongest commercial pipelines in advanced Nuclear. DOE authorization materially reduces FOAK timeline risk, while >$1.2B in liquidity supports multi-site execution. LEU was initiated with a Buy rating and $357 price target at Needham saying Centrus is moving from a profitable Low Enriched Uranium broker into "a strategic anchor of U.S. enrichment security."
• In Oil stocks: BP was downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Bank America and SHEL cut to Neutral from Buy in oils as the firm cut its house Brent oil price forecast to $60/bbl. Bank America’s new forecasts still see downside to strip for crude, oil products as well as Natural gas. For Brent, sees a shallow trajectory almost flatlining around the lower end of its $60-80/bbl medium-term Brent forecast range across 2026-27 after “landing” below $60/bbl in Q126. TTE was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan citing greater conviction in Shell’s free cash flow profile and limited valuation differentiation for the downgrade of TotalEnergies.

• Investment Managers: DBRG shares surged after Bloomberg reported this morning SoftBank Group is in talks to acquire DigitalBridge, which invests in assets such as data centers. SoftBank is negotiating a potential deal to buy New York-listed DigitalBridge and take it private as billionaire Masayoshi Son tries to capitalize on an AI-driven boom in digital infrastructure https://tinyurl.com/3z38xuzd
• In Payments: CPAY was upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer with $380 tgt saying medium-term growth prospects appear encouraging, supported by 3Q25 sales strength (+24%), expansion in faster-growing corporate payments, and improvement in the US vehicle payments segment.

• CAPR prices public offering of 6M shares at $25 each.
• DNA said it has been awarded a four-year contract, worth up to $47 million, by the Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to codesign, build, and integrate a high-throughput automated phenotyping platform in support of the microbial molecular phenotyping Capability.
• PRAX said it expects to submit to U.S. regulators a new drug application next year for its investigational drug to treat essential tremors; said it expects to submit its NDA early in 2026 after a preliminary meeting with the FDA regarding its drug Ulixacaltamide.
• VNDA said the FDA has lifted the partial clinical hold on protocol VP-VLY-686-3403, which until today limited the protocol to a maximum of 90 doses of Tradipitant. The lift followed Vanda’s formal dispute resolution request and an expedited re-review conducted by CDER leadership.

• In Managed Care: HUM was upgraded to Buy from Hold and raised PT to $313 from $253 at Jefferies following an analysis of Humana’s Stars diversification effort. Humana’s voluntary churn and "significant" 2026 share gains should drive even higher Stars diversification than previously anticipated.

• In Airlines: LUV cut its earnings forecast on a demand dip during the federal government shutdown saying they see 2025 earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) of about $500 million, down from a previous forecast of $600 million to $800 million, citing lower demand during the shutdown and higher fuel prices.
• Industrial Services: ROL was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays and raise PT to $72 from $60, while reiterate ECL at OW, and call out CTAS as its Preferred Overweight pick among its Industrial Biz Services names going into 2026. If macros stay the same or better, it will only help the fundamentals of all three names, and if macros get worse, investors may want to hide out in them.
• In Industrials: ITT said that it will buy pump-maker SPX Flow from private equity firm Lone Star Funds in a cash-and-equity deal valued at $4.775 billion. The acquisition would bolster ITT’s aftermarket portfolio by adding SPX Flow’s services for pumps, valves, mixers and other machinery, while also expanding its reach in other key markets.
• In Gov’t IT Services: PSN shares declined after the Federal Aviation Administration and the Department of Transportation awarded the Brand New Air Traffic Control System contract to rival Peraton, under a project that received a $12.5B down payment under the One Big Beautiful Bill, the agencies reported.

• In Materials/Rare Earth/Lithium: MP was upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley with $71 tgt noting the company is developing a fully domestic rare earth mine-to-magnet supply chain in the US with plans to begin commercial production of permanent magnets used in the majority of Electric vehicles Motors, a growing number of offshore wind turbines and the long-term attractive humanoids market, by the end of 2025. The firm also initiated METC with an Equal Weight and $17.50 target noting the company is developing Brook Mine, a thermal coal deposit that holds rare earth elements and critical minerals. UBS upgraded shares of ALB to Buy (raise tgt to $185 from $107) as sees higher energy storage demand and years of slower western capacity additions pushing the lithium markets into deficit in 2026.

• In Internet: The European Union fined Elon Musk’s “X platform about $140M for what it sees as breaches of the bloc’s landmark digital content law, the first ever penalty it has handed out under the legislation. The European Commission said that X broke the Digital Services Act after a broad, yearslong probe into how the social network operates.
• In Ai/Data Center: CRWV was initiated with a Buy rating and $110 price target at Roth as believes Coreweave is positioned to be a top four market share winner in an Ai Cloud market that will likely exceed the size of the traditional Internet Cloud. Its proven scale, speed to market, and Superior product-price performance versus Ai Cloud peers and hyperscalers give it a clear competitive edge.

• In Computer Hardware/Robotics: HPE shares fell after posted softer revenue driven by weaker Server and Hybrid Cloud revenue, offset partially by stronger Networking and better margins driven by mix and while they maintained their FY26 revenue guide, it’s at a slightly lower starting point given the FQ4 miss. SYM 10M share Secondary, priced at $55.00.
• In Internet Security: Sentinel (S) shares declined after posted solid quarter with ARR and revenue growth of 22.8% and 22.9% YoY, 40bps and 120bps above Street expectations as emerging products continue to support growth, but Q4 guidance was weak, with revenue growth and gross margin 110-120bps below Street; raised the midpoint of its FY26 revenue guidance but lowered the midpoint of its gross margin outlook.
• In Networking & Comm Equipment: NET said it was investigating issues with its dashboard and related APIs that impacted some websites earlier this morning.
• Internet of Things sector: IOT reported better 3Q results with all important metrics exceeding expectations handily and raised guidance while delivered its second consecutive Q of accelerating Y/Y NNARR growth, as well as its strongest Q/Q NNARR growth in 3 years.