Closing Recap

Tuesday, December 09, 2025

Someone please hit the skip button then press play at Wednesday 2pm! U.S. stock markets have been stagnant the last few days, trading sideways on light volumes as major averages remain not far from record highs after its latest bounce, heading into tomorrow’s FOMC central banks meeting where the market is widely expecting a 25bps rate cut. Precious metal prices (gold/silver) have risen in anticipation of the easing and Bitcoin prices today rebounded ahead of the meeting. Outside of a handful of market moving earnings, some S&P index announcements the last few days and company updates at various Wall Street and Industry conferences (like ASH), markets have been in a “holding pattern”. The Technology sector (XLK) made it a 12^th straight day of consecutive gains, extending its year-to-date advance above 27% (next best sector XLC Communications +19.5%) ahead of some big earnings this week with ORCL in software/Ai space and AVGO in semis/Ai space as well.

FOMC preview: Current market expectations (what’s baked in”) is that the Fed cuts 25 bps, leaves forward guidance unchanged, and the 2026 median dot still shows one cut. The key is that the Fed doesn’t hint at a pause in the rate-cut cycle to keep stock markets rising through the end of the year. Dovish Scenario is that the Fed cuts 25 bps, keeps guidance unchanged, and the dot plot shows more than one cut in 2026 signaling a stronger commitment to easing and extends the rate-cut cycle into next year. A hawkish scenario is where there is either no cut (low probability at this point), or forward guidance shifts toward a pause, or the dots show zero cuts in 2026.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the cash rate steady at 3.60% in its last policy meeting of the year while ruling out further policy easing after keeping interest rates steady as expected. The RBA reiterated its concerns around inflation, saying persistent price pressures would warrant a discussion at its February meeting. The Swiss National Bank and Bank of Canada are all expected to hold rates steady this week, while the FOMC is widely expected to lower borrowing costs on Wednesday. While a Fed rate cut is broadly expected, some strategists think the Fed’s policy committee could be sharply divided. Traders are pricing in 77 basis points of easing by the end of next year, according to LSEG data.

Lots of recent headlines on trade news between US and counterparts: President Trump said China will buy more US soybeans than pledged after a recent call with Chinese President Xi and confirmed approval for Nvidia’s H200 AI chip exports to China in return for a 25% government surcharge, allowing sales to “approved customers” while keeping advanced Blackwell and Rubin models off-limits. Amid protracted trade talks, Trump signals new tariffs on agricultural products including Canadian fertilizer, Indian rice, threatens 5% tariff on Mexico unless it releases water supplies under terms of treaty. Also yesterday, American farmers say $12B aid package a band-aid, real issue remains weak export markets.

• Nymex Natural Gas declined -33.80 cents per million British thermal units, or 6.88% to $4.5740 per million British thermal units today, falling -71.50 cents or 13.52% over the last two sessions after hitting 3-year highs on Friday of $5.289 (Year-to-date it is up 94.10 cents or 25.90%).
• Silver prices hit fresh all-time highs above $61 an ounce while February gold prices also advanced ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting where a 25-bps cut is widely anticipated. February gold prices rose $18.50 or 0.43% to settle at $4,236.20 an ounce. Meanwhile, layoffs ticked higher in October, but the job market remained fundamentally steady since the summer, the Labor Department reported Tuesday in its monthly survey of job openings and labor turnover.
• Copper prices fell after hitting a fresh record this week on fears of global supply shortages and prospects of stronger demand from China. Futures on the London Metal Exchange were down -1% to $11,523.50 a metric ton, having reached a record peak of $11,771 on Monday. Prices were boosted by concerns over tighter supply due to major mine disruptions and large shipments of the metal to the U.S.
• Crypto was a standout today, with a surge ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting where a 25bps rate cut is expected, pushing over 3% and topping $94,000 while Ethereum also jumped, rising over 6% above $3,300. The U.S. dollar index edged higher rising 0.1% to 99.20 ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement and Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks. A 25-basis-point rate cut is priced with an almost 90% probability, while expectations point to two additional reductions next year. In recent days, speculation has built that the Fed could be cautious about prospects for further rate cuts and any deviation from this expectation would dent the currency and Treasury yields.

• In Consumer Products: CL was upgrade to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital noting shares have come under pressure as slowing global category growth has weighed on Cl’s prospects ending their run of 24 consecutive quarters of organic sales at or above their LT algo (+3-5%). RBC views the risk reward as favorable at current levels maintain its PT of $88 and are upgrading Cl to Outperform.
• In Apparel & Accessories: GIII shares rallied after the Donna Karan parent posted Q3 EPS beat (on sales miss) and guided 2026 adj EPS $2.80-$2.90 above the prior range of $2.55-$2.75 while now expects a $65M unmitigated impact from tariffs in fiscal 2026, lower from the $75M estimated earlier.
• In Food & Beverages Sector: CPB reported Q1 EPS beat and sales of $2.68B just above the $2.66B estimate on steady demand as consumers increasingly opt to eat at home while maintains its annual sales and profit forecasts as sees year EPS to decline up to 18% to between $2.40-$2.55 and sales in the range of flat to decline of 2%. PEP announced certain commercial and financial priorities to enhance shareholder value, saying they would aggressively reduce costs to drive growth after weeks of discussions with activist investor Elliott Investment Management. VITL will replace HSII in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the opening of trading on Thursday, December 11.

• In Home Furnishing/Improvement Retail: HD shares slipped after backs FY25 adjusted EPS view, down -15% from $15.24 and backs FY25 revenue view up 3% and FY25 comparable sales view up slightly; guides FY26 adjusted EPS flat to up 4%, FY26 revenue up 2.5%-4.5% and FY26 comparable sales flat to up 2%. For Wayfair (W), Jefferies noted after 17 months of traffic from paid search falling as a % of total site visits, October is +200 bps y/y and November is +250 bps y/y. The firm said the data leads them to reaffirm ad spend as a % of sales slightly above the midpoint of 4Q guidance vs. investors positioned at a level toward 11%.
• In Construction & Fixtures: FERG posted higher Q1 profit and sales, boosted by growth in non-residential end markets as the plumbing and heating products supplier said adj EPS $2.84 topped ests $2.72 and revs rose 5.1% y/y to $8.17B, topping the $8.11B estimate; now expects FY sales to grow 5% vs. prior guidance for mid-single digit growth.

• In Cruise lines: NCLH was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman Sachs with a price target of $21, down from $23; VIK was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman (tgt to $78 from $66) in cruise lines. The firm said they expect cruise stocks to face short-term yield pressure in 1H26 due to Caribbean oversupply, with recovery expected in 2H. Long-term fundamentals remain strong, but competition is a key risk.
• In Autos: auto retailer AZO reported Q1 sales $4.63B just below consensus of 44.64B on adj EPS $31.04, also missing consensus of $32.51 reflecting increased operating expenses

• In Refiners: DINO forecast capital expenditure for 2026 falling -11% at $775M as it expects reduced maintenance costs. Lower turnarounds and catalysts costs, pegged at $325M, are below the $410M they forecast for 2025, would lead the company’s spending trim. DINO said it expects spending at its refining segment for 2026 to be at $225M, compared to $240M estimated for this year. The company has seven refineries in the United States with a total oil processing capacity of 678,000 barrels per day.
• In Renewables: European renewable names bounced overseas after a federal judge rejected U.S. President Donald Trump’s ban on new wind energy projects. The president’s order had effectively halted federal approvals of wind farms on land and sea, freezing dozens of clean energy projects in the region. Shares of Siemen’s Energy (SMNEY), SMA Solar (SMTGY), RWE AG (RWEOY) and Nordex (NRXXY) moved higher on the news.
• Industrials: In Electrical Equipment/Data Center, Wolfe Research upgraded ETN to Outperform from Peer Perform with a $413 price target as expects 2026 to bring benefits from the company’s electrical backlog conversion and easing cyclical tailwinds. The firm downgraded VRT to Peer Perform from Outperform without a price target saying they still believe the company is well positioned to benefit from growth in the data center infrastructure market…but cites valuation for the downgrade with the shares up 14-times since its December 2022 upgrade.
• In Airlines (AAL, DAL, UAL, LUV): Earlier the IATA predicted the airline sector would post record profits next year despite ongoing supply-chain issues leading to slower Aircraft deliveries and a delay in rolling out more fuel-efficient jets; projects 2026 net profit margin to remain at 3.9% and sector revenue expected to grow 4.5% to $1.053 trillion in 2026; says costs from supply chain, geopolitical issues to rise
• In Aerospace & Defense: SPCE shares declined after saying to repurchase $355M of convertible notes adding that final maturity of new notes extended to December 31, 2028; says capital realignment reduces debt to $273M from $425M; SpaceX sees valuation of about $1.5 trillion in public offering and noted to pursue 2026 IPO raising far above $30B as per Bloomberg.

• In Lending: SLM was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley after the company presented an updated medium-term outlook that Morgan Stanley said they were surprised by the magnitude of potential expense increase in Year 1 as SLM prepares for the forthcoming government pullback and PLUS opportunity and the potential magnitude of transitory impacts carrying beyond 2026 to 2027 (NAVI, SOFI shares also weak on news).
• In Asset managers: CNS reported preliminary assets under management of $91.9B as of November 30, 2025, an increase of $1.3B from assets under management of $90.6B at October 31, 2025. The increase was due to market appreciation of $2B, partially offset by net outflows of $502M and distributions of $151M. IVZ preliminary month-end assets under management (AUM) of $2,154.3 billion, a decrease of 0.6% versus previous month-end. The firm delivered net long-term inflows of $3.4 billion in the month.
• In REITs: ALEX will be taken private in a $1.54 billion cash deal. The company will be purchased for $21.20 a share by a joint venture formed by MW Group and funds affiliated with Blackstone Real Estate and DivcoWest.
• In FinTech: SEZL will replace VTLE in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the opening of trading on Monday, December 15 as S&P SmallCap 600 constituent CRGY is acquiring Vital Energy in a deal expected to close soon.
• In Alt Managers/Brokers: ARES will replace Kellanova (K) in the S&P 500 effective prior to the open of trading on Thursday, December 11 as Mars Inc. is acquiring Kellanova in a deal expected to close soon.

• BMY announced the first interim data from a global randomized Phase 2 trial (NCT06449222) evaluating pumitamig (BNT327/BMS986545), an investigational bispecific antibody targeting PD-L1 and VEGF-A, plus chemotherapy in patients with locally advanced/metastatic triple-negative breast cancer irrespective of PD-L1 expression levels.
• VOR was initiated Overweight and $43 price target at JP Morgan saying its autoimmune disease drug, Telitacicept, licensed from China’s RemeGen is considered "highly de-risked across a range of indications" due to strong late-stage data from China.
• XCUR shares jumped after saying 90% of patients with multiple myeloma who were undergoing stem cell treatment and received doses of burixafor, in combination with certain other treatments, achieved the primary endpoint of the study. The treatment was effective even for participants who had previously received daratumumab.
• SMID biotech remain alive with big moves on Monday following updates from ASH and other standalone readouts driving outsized moves (WVE +147%, KYMR +42%, FULC +46%, TERN +37%) though counterbalanced by a particular heaviness across larger caps, (LLY -1-2% on obesity updates, INCY -5.6% with expects elevated into mCLAR, LEGN -7.2% on ACLX r/t, ALNY -6.1% on SMid rotation + index focus, etc.)
• Several companies announced stock offerings last night, raising cash after the above mentioned positive drug data points the day prior lifted their respective stock prices: DYN offers to sell $300M in common stock; FULC announces $150M offering of common stock; KYMR announces $500 mln public offering; GPCR announces proposed offering of $500M in ADS and WVE announces proposed $250M offering of stock and warrant

• Healthcare technology: PHR reported a healthy bottom-line beat marked by solid growth across its multipronged platform. On the profitability side, PHR posted ~24% adj. EBITDA margins (well above consensus) and took up its guidance. For next year, PHR laid out preliminary guidance, which included ~15% revenue growth (above consensus even excluding contribution from OneAccess) and adj. EBITDA of $130 million (vs. consensus of $116 million).
• In Optical Sector: ALC announces amended merger agreement with STAA as new terms include an increase in acquisition price and reductions in payments to executives as Alcon to purchase Staar shares for $30.75 per share in cash (new terms include increased acquisition price and reduced executive payments) – purchase price increase represents an additional approximately $150 million in equity value for stockholders.
• In Life Sciences: Goldman Sachs initiated shares of TMO, A, and DHR at Buy and BRKR at Sell; RVTY at Neutral with the expectation that they will eventually return to their historic market growth rate of ~5%, but Goldman stresses the importance of selectivity in the recovery, given some end markets will recover faster than others. Once considered high-quality, consistent compounders, known for their resilient business models, the last several years have revealed vulnerability in LST growth profiles.

• In Steel sector: Thyssenkrupp (TKAMY) said it expects to swing to a net loss of up to 800M euros ($931M) in 2026, blaming restructuring provisions at its Steel unit, which the German conglomerate is trying to sell to India’s Jindal Steel International. Noting a challenging market environment, Thyssenkrupp said that free cash flow (FCF) would be at a negative 300M to 600M euros in 2026 (vs. 363M euros in 2025).
• In Paper & Packaging: GPK shares fell as announced that Robbert Rietbroek has been appointed President and CEO and as a director of the company, effective January 1, 2026; cuts FY25 adjusted EPS view to $1.75-$1.95 from $1.80-$2.00 and FY25 adjusted EBITDA view to $1.38B-$1.43B from $1.4B-$1.45B while implements cost and production optimization initiatives (weighed on shares of SW early).
• In Rare Earth/Lithium sector: CRML executes term-sheet to form a 50-50 joint venture with Romania’s state-owned Fabrica de Prelucrare a Concentratelor de Uraniu S.R.L. as the company will supply 50% of the Greenland-based Tanbreez Project’s premium rare earth concentrates to the Romanian JV for the full life of mine; CMP shares were active following earnings last night

• In IT Services & Consulting: the WSJ reported Anthropic and ACN struck a three-year partnership to sell artificial-intelligence services to businesses. The partnership also makes Accenture one of Anthropic’s three largest enterprise customers, Anthropic said. Accenture said it would train about 30,000 of its employees on Claude, Anthropic’s flagship Ai model. EPAM announced the availability of several new, high-impact AI agents on Google Cloud Marketplace.
• In EDA Sector: SNPS was upgraded to Buy from Neutral with $560 tgt at Rosenblatt ahead of earnings on Dec. 10^th as the company expects an in-line quarter following the Q3 miss and guidance cut, which was largely driven by IP segment issues and the China market, both of which it expects to see improvements in over the next couple of quarters.
• In Semiconductors: President Trump said yesterday he had informed President Xi, of China, that the U.S. will allow Nvidia (NVDA) to ship its h200 products to approved customers in China; and that 25% will be paid to the U.S. and says the same approach will apply to AMD, INTC and other great American companies. Beijing is considering allowing only tightly controlled access to Nvidia’s (NVDA) H200 chips, requiring buyers to apply and justify why local alternatives are not sufficient, Financial Times reported.