Closing Recap

Friday, December 12, 2025

U.S. stocks were mixed on the open of trading, adding to record highs for the Dow and Russell 2000 as the Fed rate cut and dovish outlook boosted sentiment in recent days, though tech has lagged following a good 3-week run, due in part to results/guidance comments from Oracle and Broadcom the last two days. The S&P 500 index, Dow Transports and Small caps all came into Friday at all-time highs, while the S&P tech sector (XLK) snapped its 13-day winning streak on Thursday and added to losses this morning behind weaker revs, guidance and capex from ORCL on Wednesday and rev guidance, backlog and margin concerns from AVGO overnight. Selling pressure intensified this morning after Bloomberg reported that Oracle data Centers for OpenAI are delayed to 2028 from 2027, which weighed heavily on data center names NBIS, CRWV, IREN, CIFR, VRT, ETN and many others as well as power and nuclear names like LEU, NNE, NRG, OKLO, SMR, TLN and others. Chip stocks another casualty of the headline with the SOX index falling as much as -5% as well. Early afternoon, Reuters reported that ORCL responded by saying there have been no delays to any sites required to meet our contractual commitments, and all milestones remain on track. Despite the denial of the Bloomberg story, AI/data center names still ended the day lower as tech fell hard. The CBOE Volatility index (VIX) was up 6.25% at 15.76, but well off earlier highs of 17.85 after closing below 15 for first time since mid-September on Thursday. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 0.63%, the Nasdaq declined 1.62%, and the Dow climbed 1.05%.

Story of the day: Oracle Corporation shares fell, extending its’ recent decline after Bloomberg reported that the company has delayed the completion of data centers for OpenAI to 2028 from the original 2027 target.

The postponement is primarily attributed to labor and material shortages, according to people familiar with the project who asked not to be identified. Oracle has been working to fulfill a $300 billion contract to provide computing power for training and running OpenAI’s models since the agreement was signed this summer.

Despite the delays, the timeline for these U.S. projects remains ambitious, as they are set to become some of the largest data centers in the world per Bloomberg. Oracle later refuted the story as per Reuters story saying there have been no delays to any sites required to meet our contractual commitments, and all milestones remain on track, but it didn’t matter today, as tech remained weak.

2026 outlook: Goldman Sachs expects continued market strength in 2026, setting a 7,600 target for the S&P 500. Chief U.S. equity strategist Ben Snider says AI-driven productivity will lift earnings, projecting S&P 500 EPS to rise 12% to $305, with six major tech firms providing nearly half the growth. While Big Tech remains the main driver, Snider also sees improving earnings for the rest of the index. He notes risks ahead, including slower Fed easing and pressure on profit margins, but maintains a broadly positive outlook.

• Oil prices slipped on the day and week as WTI crude fell -$0.16 or 0.28% to settle at $57.44 per barrel (down -4.39% on week), while Brent crude declined -$0.16 or 0.26% to settle at $61.12 per barrel. Natural gas priced collapsed this week after hitting 3-year highs last Friday of $5.2890 per million British thermal units, falling, to $4.113 per mln btus (down -22% on week) and snapped its 7-week winning streak.

• Fed began its bill purchases today, as indicated at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. As noted, the Fed’s Open Market Desk will be buying about $40B in Treasury bills through January 14 in Reserve Management Purchases (RMPs) and will conduct $14.4B in reinvestment purchases from its agency holdings. It is purchasing $8.2B in the 1-month to 4-month sector. Next week will buy $6.8B in 4-month to 12-month bills on Monday, $8.2B in 1-to 4-month bills Wednesday, and $8.2B in 1- to 4-month bills on Friday.
• The U.S. dollar index (DXY) was flat at 98.35 after falling to 2-month lows this week, posting a third straight weekly drop amid the prospect of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year. The index is also down more than 9% this year, on pace for its steepest annual drop since 2017. Sterling eased after data showed the UK economy unexpectedly shrank in the three months to October. The euro was flat at $1.174 after hitting a more than two-month high on Thursday. Against the yen, the dollar rose around 156 ahead of next week’s Bank of Japan meeting, where the broad expectation is for a rate hike.

• In Hardline/Broadline sector: COST reported Q1 total revenue that was in line with the consensus estimate, a little over a week after posting monthly sales for November that disappointed; Comp 6.4% worldwide (ex-gas price, FX) driven by both traffic ( 3.1%) and ticket ( 3.2%).
• In Luxury Retail: Jefferies raised the price tgt on several companies including TPR to $142 from $135, RL to $425 from $385, VFC to $18 from $14, M to $27 from $26, KSS to $24 from $20 and CPRI to $24 from $20 as well among its fashion brands coverage, saying they would prioritize momentum-led upside to estimates versus turnarounds at this point. The firm has a 2026 base case that assumes stable consumer spend, although still pressured at the low-end.
• In Beverages: Stifel estimates advantaged growth in 2026 from the Energy Drink category in the U.S., continued growth Internationally, and solid price realization benefiting from actions taking hold exiting 2025. Stifel notes Energy Drink stocks outperformed the market in 2025 benefiting from a strong category acceleration, market share improvement for Monster Energy, and transformative M&A for Celsius. The firm is raising its 2026 estimates for both CELH and MNST reflecting stronger consumption momentum.
• In Home Furnishing/Improvement: RH reported Q3 EPS that fell short of Street expectations, and guided Q4 sales and implied EPS below consensus, despite strong revenue growth and share gains. RH reduced FY25 revenue/EBITDA guidance for the second time this year. Lowered operating margin outlook reflects lower revenue, higher tariff impact, and shift in marketing expense from into 1Q26.

• In Oil & Gas Majors/E&P: For N.A. Oil & Gas, UBS said after three years of treading Water, they see a positive setup for Energy in 2026 with multiple support drivers including: 1) An improving oil outlook heading into 2027, 2) Natural gas price strength continues, 3) real value creation from M&A, 4) underlying FCF and margin improvements via cost and CAPEX reductions, 5) new (and old) opportunities emerging for OFS, and 6) attractive valuation, both absolute and relative to the S&P500. The firm upgraded DVN to Buy and raised tgt to $46 as sees an improving 2H26 oil back drop and $1B of debt reduction mid-year as the key catalysts for DVN; also confident in co executing the $1B cost reduction strategy by YE26.
• In Refiners: Mizuho downgraded VLO to Neutral from Outperform citing the stock’s above peer valuation and the potential for weaker refining cracks and upgraded PBF to Neutral from underperform as expects West Coast product balances to become tighter in 2026 and remain in deficit until 2029 (notes PBF is the most exposed now that the Martinez refinery restart is imminent). They also upgraded MGY to Outperform from Neutral saying the company offers an attractive combination of modest volume growth, a strong balance sheet and above-average cash returns.

• In Brokers & Exchanges: CBOE was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays and raise PT to $302 from $273 while downgraded TW to EW from Overweight and lower PT to $121 from $132 in sector outlook saying market conditions look constructive going into 2026, particularly for the alts and Wealth Brokers, where BARC is most positive. Barclays said TW shares as more fairly valued at current level while for CBOE, its index options franchise has seen healthy growth over the past several years. SCHW reports monthly activity highlights as Nov core net new assets increase 40% to $40.4B, Nov total client assets $11.83 trillion, up 15% from Nov 2024 and Nov new Brokerage accounts opened 365,000.

• BCRX said the FDA approved the drugmaker’s oral pellet formulation of Orladeyo in pediatric patients with hereditary angioedema of ages 2 to 12.
• BMY was upgraded to Buy at Guggenheim with a $62 tgt ahead of 2026, which they believe offers a much more compelling value-oriented and pipeline-driven risk/reward. Given already low expectations for earnings and clinical readouts, the firm views the stock’s 2026 floor to be closer to $50 per share.
• RCUS shares fell after saying it will stop a late-stage study testing its experimental cancer drug combination in patients with advanced stomach and esophageal cancers after it failed to improve the survival rate; note GILD last year invested $320M in Arcus at $21 per share

• In Healthcare Technology: VEEV was downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at Keybanc saying a recent round of channel checks has indicated large Pharma clients that are in the middle of software evaluations are leaning toward CRM’s offering, suggesting more losses than VEEV has outlined; and a healthy number of SMB customers have already migrated to CRM from VEEV.

• In Metals & Mining: A mixed day for gold and silver miners given a fresh record high for silver prices and gold surging on week to 7-week highs and nearing its previous all-time highs on lower rate cut outlook, weaker dollar and more upside momentum. Shares of AG, AEM, CDE, HL, NEM, PAAS, WPM all very active this week, with many making 52-week highs before sliding this afternoon. Copper eased after striking an all-time peak close to $12,000 a metric ton on Friday, as high prices risk hitting demand for the metal, which was nonetheless still on course for a third successive weekly gain.
• In Chemicals: APD was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS saying they think the reaction to APD’s Louisiana and NEOM project updates could be overdone (has fallen -9% since). However, now believes medium term adj EPS growth could be lower than its prior estimates, and improvement in FCF/project de-risking could take longer than it initially expected. In Fertilizers (MOS, NTR, CF) shares extending yesterday gains following recent reports that Ukraine hits Russian fertilizer plants; explosions near Veliky Novgorod chemical plant as Russia reports mass drone attack. Also notable, MOS saying at the conference that China announced it was limiting exports through August 2026. LIN shares rose following positive analyst commentary post its Investor Day event Thursday.
• In Industrials, Construction: NX shares surged more than 30% overnight following earnings results before paring gains; Operating income swelled to $42.9 million from $2.8 million a year earlier. However, sales dipped to $489.8 million from $492.2 million last year; shares of CAT, PH among industrial names pulling back after recent all time highs; ETN and other names involved in data center tumbling on media report of Oracle delaying the completion of data centers for OpenAI to 2028 from the original 2027 target

• In Internet & Video Games sector: JP Morgan downgraded RBLX to Neutral from Overweight, YOU upgrade to Overweight from Neutral and named ROKU top pick in Internet SMID and video Games. J.P. Morgan’s house view is positive on US equities in 2026 but split on market leadership. JPM said it combed through all 20 of its company models in detail to identify long/short opportunities for next year, with a focus on the likely direction of 2026 estimate revisions and where the Street looks offside.
• IT Services & Consulting: NTSK shares fell despite reporting a smaller-than-expected Q3 loss while ARR accelerated 1pt to 34% y/y (to $754M vs. est. $728M), NNARR again grew >45% y/y, and margins beat on higher revs, while 4Q revs were guided solidly above; also guided FY revs $701M-$703M vs. est. $689.8M
• In Security Software: SentinelOne (S) shares rose on a positive Citron Research comment noting the “Dept of Homeland Security just validated Sentinelone’s entire strategy. $S trades at 4x sales while Crowdstrike sits at 15x+ doing the same thing – that Gap closes from here! DHS dropped CPG 2.0 requiring critical infrastructure to PROVE measurable Security outcomes to leadership.”

• Reuters reported NVDA is evaluating increasing production of H200 Ai chips due to strong Chinese demand; Chinese demand for h200 chips ahead of Nvidia’s current production capacity
• Reuters also reported INTC tested chipmaking tools from ACMR, a toolmaker with ties to China and two overseas units that were targeted by U.S. sanctions, Reuters reports. ACM’s wet etch tools were tested for possible use in Intel’s 14A, its most advanced chipmaking process