Closing Recap

Friday, December 19, 2025

US equities enjoyed small overnight gains following an up-day yesterday on cooler CPI data and MU earnings. NKE was the big name out with earnings last night but, despite a positive initial reaction, the stock faded and was down about 10% pre-market. FDX also saw a modest early decline as investors were unimpressed with seemingly-conservative guidance. Equity futures held gains into the open with no economic news to sway markets and relatively benign comments from the Fed’s Williams.  Following 10am reports on existing home sales and consumer sentiment, stocks held gains with breadth favoring advancers by 9:5 on IWM (+0.70%) versus SPY (+0.69%) and QQQ (+1.04%). Early sector performance saw Technology (+1.61%), Health Care (+0.65%) and Energy (+0.58%) outperforming among S&P sector ETFs, while Consumer Discretionary (-0.20%), Consumer Staples (-0.28%) and Real Estate (-0.29%) lagged with seven sectors gaining versus three declining.  In sentiment today, the Fear and Greed Index registered a 46/100 (Neutral), up from 42 (Fear) last week and 7 (Extreme Fear) last month.

In data of note today, per @bespokeinvest, 2026 will be year two of the Presidential Election cycle. Years one, three, and four of the cycle have all seen median gains of 8%+, but year two is by far the weakest with a median gain of less than 1%. The last two “year 2s” for the S&P registered -19% and -6%, respectively. That said, Goldman was out today with a more constructive view of 2026, as it sees 13-15% price returns in a broader bull market with earnings growth as a driver. With more from yesterday’s AAII survey, @KobeissiLetter noted stock market investment is at a 20+ year highs with retail asset allocation in stocks at about 70%.

Heading into the final hour of trading, US equities looked to be making at effort at a Santa rally with gains across the major indices. Breadth held strong at 7:4 in favor of advancers, though small caps underperformed. Sectors winners and losers were similar to the morning reading with Technology (+2.08%), Health Care (+0.92%) and Industrials (+0.91%) the outperformers, while Consumer Discretionary (-0.05%), Consumer Staples (-0.34%) and Utilities (-0.73%) paced the underperformers.

• University of Michigan surveys of consumers sentiment final Dec 52.9 (consensus 53.4) vs preliminary Dec 53.3 and final Nov 51.0.

• WTI futures climbed overnight and extended gains early then generally held to settle +$0.52/bbl, or +0.93%, at $56.52. Expectations of future rate cuts and the US blockade of Venezuelan tankers supported gains. Brent similarly gained, settling +$0.65/bbl, or +1.09%, to $60.47.

• Winnebago (WGO) shares rose after releasing Q1 earnings and raised its guidance for FY26.

• Krispy Kreme (DNUT) announces strategic refranchising agreement for Japan.
• Lamb Weston Hldgs (LW) shares lost ¼ of their value by midday following an EPS & sales beat and maintained forward guidance buy warned of tariff & margin pressure.
• Nike (NKE) shares were dropping 11% after a rough quarter in China and disappointing guidance.
• 21 states join the FTC to sue Uber (UBER) over ‘free trial’ scam: ‘Free trials should actually be free.’

• Massachusetts orders Draftkings (DKNG) to pay $934K after it botched MLB parlay bets.

• Settlement reached in 4 PUCO FirstEnergy (FE) proceedings; provides $275M to FirstEnergy Ohio customers.
• Shares of energy and nuclear stocks are trading higher, possibly amid continued strength due to Trump Media & Technology Group’s (DJT) recent announcement that it will merge with TAE Technologies. The increasing adoption of AI technology has placed a higher priority on energy and data centers. BE, OKLO, CCJ, NNE, SMR

• SpaceX interviews banks for IPO with Morgan Stanley (MS), a top contender, sources note. Elon Musk’s close ties with Morgan Stanley give bank edge in SpaceX IPO.
• Bank Of America (BAC) bonuses will jump for investment bankers this year; bank of america to reward top dealmakers with bonus increases of about 20%, source say.

• Paychex (PAYX) shares were lower after reporting slight EPS & sales beats.
• Klarna (KLAR) partners with Coinbase (COIN) to add stablecoin to funding mix

• Trump announce deals with 9 pharmaceutical companies to reduce drug prices -senior administration official. Deals are with Amgen, Bristol Myers Squibb, Roche’s Genentech, Gilead, GSK, Merck, Novartis, Sanofi and Boehringer Ingelheim -U.S. official. Each manufacturer agrees to reduce prices on majority of medications sold through Medicaid -U.S. official.
• b announced additional weight loss from 24 to 48 weeks with 1.8 mg dose, without plateauing.
• Biomarin (BMRN) to acquire Amicus Therapeutics (FOLD) for $4.8B ($14.50 per share), expanding position as a leader in rare diseases, accelerating revenue growth and strengthening financial. Biomarin to finance deal with cash and $3.7B debt. Amicus shares rose by 30% on the deal.
• Shares of Cytokinetics (CYTK) were halted with their Myqorzo FDA approval decision coming up on 12/26.
• Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc (MIRM) moved higher after announcing a $68.5M private placement agreement with investment firm TCGX. Also, Citizens JMP raised its price target on the stock from $95 to $140.
• Moderna (MRNA) shares were higher following news that CEPI would invest up to $54.3M to help advance Moderna’s H5 pandemic influenza vaccine candidate to licensure.

• Alcon (ALC) exercised right to require Staar Surgical (STAA) to adjourn its special meeting of stockholders, will now be held January 6.

• Union Pacific Corp (UNP) and Norfolk Southern (NSC) file for merger approval with STB; deal expected to complete by early 2027.
• Despite posting stronger-than-projected quarterly results, shares of FedEx (FDX) were just slightly higher in late afternoon trading.
• Intuitive Machines Inc (LUNR) gained ~+30% after Keybank initiated coverage on the stock with an Overweight rating and a $20 price target.

• Vuzix (VUZI) and Collins Aerospace (RTX) announce strategic collaboration to scale augmented reality Defense solutions.
• U.S. lawmakers say Deepseek should be listed as a Chinese military firm.
• Space Development Agency awarded L3Harris (LHX) $843M contract for tracking layer satellites.
• Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT) was awarded $1B contract for 18 space vehicles.
• Redwire (RDW) shares rose after traders said their solar array products would be in high demand as the space race picks up.
• Northrop Grumman (NOC) was selected for space development agency’s TRKT3 mission.
• Boeing (BA) has asked the FAA to grant an exemption to the 2017 ICAO fuel efficiency rules that mean an end to production of the 777-200LRF freighter on Dec. 31, 2027.

• Google Cloud (GOOGL) lands deal with Palo Alto Networks (PANW) ‘approaching $10B,’ per source per Reuters. Landmark agreement to help customers securely accelerate Cloud and Ai initiatives.
• Nebius Group (NBIS) shares lifted after Wedbush’s Dan Ives said the company may be a M&A target in 2026.
• TikTok Owner ByteDance on Track for $50B Profit in 2025.

• Coreweave (CRWV) shares rose sharply after the company announced it had joined the DOE’s Genesis Mission.
• Salesforce (CRM) executives now advocate less reliance on LLMs for Agentforce as trust in generative Ai has declined due to LLMs’ inherent randomness. Salesforce uses deterministic automation to improve Agentforce reliability and cut costs, per The Information.
• Infosys (INFY) rose +30% and fell back to flat on heavy volume and “no one knows what prompted the move,” per Barron’s.
• Late Thursday, the WSJ reported that a new fundraising round could value OpenAI at as much as $830B.
• OpenAI and the U.S. Department of Energy have signed a MOU to deepen our collaboration on AI and advanced computing in support of DOE initiatives, including the Genesis Mission.

• Nvidia’s (NVDA) transaction with Intel (INTC) cleared by US antitrust agencies – FTC.
• AI chip firm Cerebras set to file for US IPO after delay, sources note per Reuters.