Closing Recap

Wednesday, December 24, 2025

Watching paint dry or grass growing was the best way to sum the last two days stock market trading action as the S&P 500 (SPX) made it a 5^th straight day of gains, melting higher both days (on light volumes) and touching a fresh all-time high in the process as the “Santa Claus” rally got underway. Reminder the official “Santa Claus” rally, which is defined as the last 5 trading days of the year (so started today) plus the first two of next, per the Stock Almanac the S&P is up 76% of the time over that stretch with an average gain of 1.3%. RyanDetrick tweeted (on 12/22): “The official Santa Claus Rally period starts on Wednesday. Santa hasn’t come for two years in a row, but he’s never missed three years in a row. And there is no 7-day period that is more likely to be higher than these 7 days (77.3%).” Nearly all eleven S&P sectors closed higher on the day (energy finished lower) – and on track for similar on the year. With four trading days left (after today) most of the eleven S&P sectors are on track for yearly gains with XLK Technology +25.6% YTD, XLC Communications +21.5% XLI Industrials +19.5%, XLF Financials +15.3% and XLV Healthcare +13.2% as the best. Only XLP Consumer Staples -0.85% and XLRE REITs -0.6% are down slightly on the year to this point. Just no fear into end of year with the CBOE Volatility index (VIX) falling over -3% to lowest since December last year (below 14) as investor sentiment buoyed all year by AI investments and growth, Fed rate cut and easing stance and tariff revs helping the US. So, the S&P 500 is now up 5 days in a row to an all-time high and the VIX down 5 days in a row to 52-week lows! Reminder stock markets are closed tomorrow for holiday, have a Merry Christmas!

• Gold and silver were among this week’s (and year) big movers, on this shortened trading day ahead of the holidays, but saw some profit taking. Precious metals hit more record highs, buoyed by geopolitical concerns and expectations for more interest-rate cuts in 2026. Gold topped $4,500 an ounce for the first time yesterday, while silver and platinum also surged to all-time highs. The moves put gold (+72% YTD) and silver (+143% YTD) on track for their best yearly gains since 1979. Copper is also at a new record at around $12,200 a ton and is set for its biggest annual rise since 2009.
• Meanwhile Bitcoin prices remain weak over the last month, holding under $90,000 after hitting all-time highs around $126,200, reached on October 6, 2025. On the year, currently losses for crypto with Bitcoin down roughly -6.75% YTD and Ethereum down -12.35% year-to-date. Possibly the rotation into precious metals this year has weighed on crypto.

• UL shares mentioned positively in Barron’s noting the company recently spun off The Magnum Ice Cream Company earlier this month, with a debut valuation north of $9 billion. While the listing in Amsterdam fell short of expectations, and there could be concerns about the popularity of sugary treats as health consciousness grows, the team at Deutsche Bank think the stock may still be worth a taste.

• BP agreed to sell a 65% stake in its Castrol lubricants business to U.S. investment firm Stonepeak for about $6B, a significant step in the oil major’s $20B divestment plan aimed at cutting debt and boosting returns. The deal, announced on Wednesday, values Castrol at $10.1B.
• NI has received a federal order to keep open a coal plant in Indiana that had previously been scheduled to retire at the end of this year. The utility company’s Northern Indiana Public Service Co. subsidiary said Wednesday the order is in effect for 90 days. NIPSCO said it will comply with the order, and any subsequent orders.
• A Silicon Valley-focused banking startup backed by PLTR co-founder Peter Thiel is expected to raise $350 million in a funding round that would more than double its valuation. Erebor Bank, named for the treasure-filled mountain in J.R.R Tolkien’s The Hobbit, is raising money from funds led by Lux Capital in a round that values the firm at $4.35 billion, according to a person with knowledge of the matter – Bloomberg reported.

• DVAX agreed to be acquired by SNY in a $2.2 billion cash deal; the deal adds a marketed adult hepatitis B vaccine and phase 1/2 shingles candidate to the pipeline Under the terms of the merger agreement, Sanofi will pay $15.50 per share in cash for DVAX.
• OMER said the FDA approved its drug, branded as Yartemlea, used to treat a condition known as transplant-associated thrombotic microangiopathy (TA-TMA), a serious complication that can develop after stem cell transplants.
• RPTX shares rose after agreeing to sell its polymerase theta ATPase inhibitor RP-3467 to GILD for up to $30M which includes a $25M upfront payment, subject to customary holdbacks and adjustments, and an additional $5M payment upon completion of specified technology transfer activities.
• SNY said the FDA issued a complete response letter (CRL) for the new drug application of tolebrutinib to treat non-relapsing secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (nrSPMS) in adult patients.

• PATH will replace SNV in the S&P MidCap 400 effective prior to the opening of trading on Friday, January 2.
• SNOW shares dipped after a report in The Information that the software co is in talks to buy app monitoring startup Observe for $1 bln.