Closing Recap

Friday, December 26, 2025

US equity futures were feeling a bit grinchy overnight, but managed to be only slightly in the red early. The Christmas spirit also seemed to be missing in the AAII survey as it dipped from +10.9% to +2.6% this week. Bulls fell from 44.1% to 37.4%, while bears rose from 33.2% to 34.8%. Despite an early transition to gains, somebody hit the 10am sell button and stocks once again shifted back to losses. That said, markets were still on a path to finish the week with gains and today’s Fear & Greed Index remained in the Greed column at 56/100 versus last week’s 49 (Neutral) and last month’s 17 (Extreme Fear). By late morning, indices were hovering flattish but sector performance skewed negative. Materials (+0.44%), Technology (+0.35%) and Consumer Staples (+0.15%) were outperformers among S&P sector ETFs, while Industrials (-0.18%), Communications (-0.19%) and Consumer Discretionary (-0.52%) paced the underperformers with only four sectors gaining versus seven declining. Breadth similarly favored decliners by 6:5 as small caps underperformed with IWM (-0.62%) versus SPY (+0.03%) and QQQ (+0.06%).

In data of interest today, with a Santa rally in mind, @bespokeinvest noted the market has only declined six times when open on 12/26 in the past 39 years. Not bad. On money supply, @KobeissiLetter noted US M2 rose another 4.3% yr/yr in November to a record $22.3T, making it the 21^st consecutive monthly gain. Lastly, again on the Santa rally, since 1999, a negative return in the Santa rally period has resulted in January declines in most instances and about a 50/50 split on the full year following.

Heading into the final hour of trading for the holiday week, indices remained marginally lower, though clearly not enough to erase the weekly gain. Breadth remained slightly in favor of decliners and Materials, Technology and Consumer Staples were the only S&P sector ETF’s enjoying gains. Enjoy the snow if you are in the Northeast and think Santa rally for next week.

• WTI February crude futures slipped overnight and never managed to stage much of a rally, settling -$1.61/bbl, or -2.76%, at $56.74. Markets continue to look for a Ukraine peace deal and a 2026 supply glut, both of which have been offsetting any rising demand hopes as rates ease. Brent also slipped, settling -$1.61/bbl, or -2.57%, to $60.64.

• SSNLF Samsung launched self-developed GPU by 2027, breaking from AMD architecture.
• GOOGL Waymo halts rides in Bay Area due to a Christmas flash flood warning.
• APPL Apple’s foreign phone shipments in China surge 128% in November: report
• UXIN announces entry into share subscription agreements with NIO capital and Prestige shine group limited – to issue 5.25B Class A shares at US$0.00953 each.
• JNJ J&J Atopic Dermatitis Study Misses Efficacy Standard -Johnson & Johnson’s phase 2b study of a treatment of moderate to severe atopic dermatitis will end early after the results didn’t meet its efficacy standards.
• TGT Pressure grows on Target as activist investor builds stake – Move by hedge fund TCIM comes as US retailer Struggles with a sales slump per FT
• JPM Stablecoin Startups Spark Trouble for JPMorgan – JPM has frozen accounts for two startups doing business in Venezuela and other legally risky countries. The Information
• BA China imposed sanctions against 20 U.S. Defense-related companies, including Club name Boeing. Friday’s announcement comes one week after the Trump administration announced a large-scale arms sale to Taiwan valued at more than $10B. Beijing wants Taiwan to be part of China again.
• NVDA Nvidia news broke on Christmas day, they will buy Ai chip startup Groq’s assets for about $20B in its largest deal on record. Nvidia is making its largest purchase ever, acquiring assets from nine-year-old chip startup Groq for about $20B.
• SOC Shares of Sable Offshore fell after news that environmental groups file suit to halt the co’s pipeline – Y’day, the Environmental Defense Center, the Center for Biological Diversity, and their clients filed an emergency lawsuit to halt the Trump admin’s approval for restart of an oil pipeline system on the Central Coast.
• COIN Coinbase Global CEO Brian Armstrong said that a former customer service agent for the largest US crypto exchange was arrested in India, months after hackers bribed customer service representatives to gain access to customer information. BBG earlier.
• SIDU Sidus space announces pricing of offering; set at $1.50 per share, $16.2M gross proceeds expected.
• FCX Freeport-McMoRan’s stock has rallied 8.2% this week to lead the pack as tghe top gainer in the S&P 500. It was also headed for a ninth straight daily gain, the longest win streak since the nine-day stretch that ended Sept. 19, 2024, and was on track for the highest close since May 28. 2024.