Closing Recap

Wednesday, February 14, 2024

As remains the case for weeks/months, any sharp pullback in U.S. stocks (as we saw yesterday after CPI data) has resulted in a strong “buy the dip” moment (as we saw today) with major averages finishing broadly higher across the board. Fed official Goolsbee stressed caution in overreacting to one piece of data and markets appear to have taken this message to heart. NYSE breadth improved after yesterday’s weakness with solid gains in Industrials (XLI), Communications (XLC), and REITs (XLRE) among the biggest winners while Energy (XLE) slipped as oil declined for the first time in 8-days and Consumer Staples (XLP) dropped behind weakness in the food sector on softer sales forecast from Kraft (KHC). The Philadelphia semi-index (SOX) recovered a good portion of yesterday’s dip as strength in the sector continues to amaze. NVDA topped GOOGL market cap today becoming the 3^rd most valuable company (passed AMZN recently and only behind AAPL and MSFT), while any chip related name tied to “AI” growth prospects such as ARM, SMCI, MPWR, AMD, TSM, AVGO, others have seen prices surge. After hitting highs of 17.94 the day prior following the CPI spike, the CBOE Volatility index (VIX) tumbles -8% to 14.50 level this morning (fear has remained very short lived during this 15 week stretch of 20% SPX stock gains). Meanwhile the natural gas plunge extends to a 7^th day, down over 25% during this stretch. After falling nearly 4% on Tuesday on the CPI/rate fears, the Smallcap Russell 2000 index outperformed large caps, recouping over 2%. Earnings stay strong as FS Insights tweeted: “Of the 360 companies that have reported so far (72% of the S&P 500): Overall, 80% are beating estimates, and those that “beat” are beating by a median of 7%. Of the 20% missing, those are missing by a median of -5%. On the top line, overall results are beating estimates by a median of 4% and missing by a median of -3%, and 64% of those reporting are beating.”

• UK inflation unexpectedly held steady at 4.0% in January, defying forecasts of a rise to 4.2%. Consumer price inflation – which surged as high as 11.1% in October 2022 – is expected to fall further in the coming months.

• Gold prices fell -$2.90 to settle at $2,004.30 an ounce, extending the recent pullback amid a surge in the dollar and Treasury yields amid reduced Fed rate cut expectations given stronger economic data. The U.S. dollar index pulled back from more than 3-month highs yesterday after the CPI data lifted the greenback.
• Bitcoin climbed past $51,500 in a broad cryptocurrency rally that saw Ether also recover back to where it was before the Terra USD stablecoin collapsed almost two years ago. Bitcoin’s 21% year-to-date gain pushed its market capitalization above $1 trillion for the first time since December 2021.
• Treasury yields pulled back from overnight highs, as the 10-yr finished around 4.25% (down from 4.33%), but still up sharply this week following the “hotter” CPI report on Tuesday that lowered Street expectations of aggressive rate cuts in 2024 (reduced odds to 4 cuts from 6 initially and first cut expected in June now).

• In Retail: ULTA was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Loop Capital based on current valuation levels, as opposed to a more bearish view of the company’s fundamentals. In Discount stores, BMO Capital previewed quarter, raising price tgts for big box names as remains Outperform on WMT and COST (multi-year favorites) and DLTR (a 2024 top pick) and Market Perform on TGT and DG.

• MLM Q4 EPS $4.63 tops consensus $3.99 as revenue of $1.608B misses consensus $1.63B;
• ZG delivered Q4 top and bottom-line beat as outperformance spanned all segments while Q1 outlook was mixed, with revenue guidance in line with consensus and adjusted EBITDA guidance below the Street. ZG’s residential segment returned to positive y/y growth for the first time since 2Q22, growing 3% y/y.
• In Home Improvement Retail: TD Cowen raised price tgts on ARHS to $14 from $13, LOW to $230 from $225 and WSM to $260 from $240 saying they prefer the set up at Outperform rated HD, followed by Market Perform rated LOW. Meanwhile, following a strong run in the three Outperform rated furniture names, TDCowen is more cautious on set-ups, but slightly prefers RH.
• US weekly Mortgage Bankers Assoc data showed the applications index fell -2.3% in latest week, the mortgage purchase index fell -2.5%, the refinance index falls -2.1% as the average 30-year mortgage rate climbs 7 bps to 6.87%.

• In Cruise lines (CCL, NCLH, RCL): Bank America said based on cruise prices pulled in early February, industry pricing was broadly improved from January. Pricing for W. Caribbean saw the greatest sequential acceleration this month at +21%, ahead of E. Caribbean at +2%. On a trailing 3-month avg, RCL has seen the greatest strength for the second month in a row at +9%, followed by NCLH at +3%.
• In Casinos/Gaming: MGM reported EBITDA of $1.2B, below consensus expectations, with mixed results across its three segments. The 8% Macau EBITDA beat was clean in the quarter, and margins/exit rates suggest positive momentum will support market share gains during 2023.
• In EV Charging: BLNK shares rallied after provided an upbeat sales outlook and affirmed its target for reaching adjusted profitability; said sees Q4 revs to surpass $42M (vs. est. $34.1M) citing strong demand for equipment and services and affirmed its target of achieving a positive adj Ebitda by year-end.
• In Lodging/Travel: ABNB reported strong 4Q results, particularly on Adj. EBITDA that came in 15% ahead of expectations and overall demand accelerated throughout the quarter, but Deutsche Bank noted he 1Q outlook suggests that nights are likely to grow at a HSD rate at best, below Sell side expectations of ~12% Y/Y growth.
• In Leisure: MODG posted Q4 beat & sales better in all segments as Top Golf comp store sales -3% a bit better, Callaway still #1 in clubs, & apparel powered by Travis. Outlook was mixed as ’24 guide looks ok as it brackets Street on sales/EBITDA while Q1 forecast on rev/ EBITDA is materially below Street driven by unseasonably cold weather.

• API data had US crude stockpiles building over 8.5M barrels last week (more than expected) but gasoline and distillates both fell by a bullish combined 11.246M. Data came in at Crude +8.52M, gasoline (7.23M), distillate (4.016M), Cushing +512K.
• In E&P Sector: CRK posted mixed Q4 with an Ethe numbers, rev beat while said plans to suspend its quarterly dividend until natural gas prices improve; plans to reduce number of operating drilling rigs it is running from seven to five.
• In Refining: DINO upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS and raise tgt to $73 from $64 noting in the last 12 months, DINO has underperformed its two close diversified refining peers, PSX by 28.9% and MPC by 27% citing overhang of HEP transaction, Sinclair family continuing to sell and weaker Mid-Con cracks – but note these all have reversed.
• In Nat Gas E&P: EQT delivered stronger than expected 4Q23 results on higher volumes and lower capex. For FY24, capex was ~2% ahead of consensus expectations to deliver volumes that were ~1% lower.

• In Online Brokers: HOOD posted a surprise profit in Q4, driven by higher interest income from customers paying back loans and a rebound in trading – posted top-line and EPS; transaction revenues & volumes increased sharper than expected in Dec. ’23 across equities, options, and Crypto volumes came in the strongest since the Sep. ’22 quarter.
• In Private Equity: the WSJ reported KKR has agreed to acquire a stake in Cotiviti from private-equity manager Veritas Capital in a deal valuing the healthcare-technology business at around $11B. The transaction would give the two New York-based firms equal ownership stakes in Cotiviti.
• In Fintech: GPN forecast FY24 revs $91.7B-$9.3B below analysts’ mid-point of ests $9.29B saying they are preparing for a drop in consumer spending; UPST shares stumbled after guiding Q1 revs $125M missing the $152M estimate (after Q4 revs beat but fell -4% y/y to $140M), cautious in n-t given challenges stemming from high interest rates/elevated consumer risk due to multiple bank failures.
• In Insurance: AIG topped expectations for Q4 profit, driven by higher investment returns at its general insurance arm as adj tax income attributable to common shareholders climbed to $1.79 per share from $1.39 y/y (est. $1.64); PRU said a suspected cybercrime group gained access to certain systems and user data in an attack earlier this month. PGR hitting all-time highs today after January premium results earlier.

• INVH initial 2024 Core FFO guidance was slightly below consensus (-0.4%), which includes a benefit from the Company’s recent foray into third-party property and asset management services; excluding this amount, INVH missed by 1.5% at the midpoint.
• KRG reported a $0.01 quarterly beat and management issued initial FY24 FFO guidance that was in line with consensus at the midpoint. While FY24 consensus was revised lower by ~$0.03 since November, the bar was reset and management’s in-line guidance removes risk of further downside to consensus as per KeyBanc.

• LXRX shares continue recent advance as Piper said they remain bullish saying, "the stock has traded up ~120% in the past month as investors not only recognize the major opportunity for INPEFA (sotagliflozin)…but also appreciate the substantial upside in HCM indication expansion."
• SAGE quarterly revenue of $77.97M tops ests $61M on smaller-than-expected loss of (-$0.55) vs. est. (-$1.28) saying its postpartum depression pill Zurzuvae, launched in mid-December, brought in $0.8 mln in quarterly collaboration revenue (partner is BIIB).
• Secondary offerings: COGT sells 17M shares at $7.50 in private placement; LRMR 17.2M share Spot Secondary priced at $8.74; IMNM 10M share Spot Secondary priced at $20.00.

• CRL reported 4Q results, with revenue of $1.01B (vs. $991M cons), with each segment ahead on topline while 2024 guidance bracketing street on rev growth (+1% to 4% vs. 3% cons) and ahead on EPS ($10.90 to $11.40 vs. $10.83).
• DVA shares jump after Q4 rev and profit beat and sees FY24 adjusted EPS $8.70-$9.80, vs. consensus $8.68 and FCF $900M-$1.15B.
• IQV rallies after Q4 EPS largely in line with estimates, EBITDA slightly ahead (EPS $2.84 vs $2.82 est., Q4 rev $3.87B vs $3.8B est. Q4 adj EBITDA $966M vs $962.9M) and sees FY adjusted EPS $10.95-$11.25, vs. estimate $11.08.
• QDEL shares tumbled, downgraded by several analysts after reporting a significant 4Q miss (EBITDA $195M vs. $272M consensus) and guiding 2024 well below street, with EBITDA of $526M-$720M (vs. $801M consensus, -22% at mid-point) and EPS of $2.40 to $3.07 (vs. $5.07 consensus).

• In Gold Miners, GOLD announces new $1B share repurchase program; Q4 adj EPS $0.27 vs. est. $0.20 and revs rose 6.9% y/y to $3.06B vs. est. $3.08B; Sales for the fourth quarter hit 1.04 million ounces of gold against 1.03 million ounces in the same period the year before, and 117 million pounds of copper, up from 101 million pounds.
• In Chemicals: CC shares stumbled after delaying earnings by two weeks, while the sector generally underperformed with early weakness in LYB, EMN, CF, PPG, and others.
• In Aerospace & Defense: LMT shares rolled midday after Reuters reports U.S. President Joe Biden wants an 18% cut in the number of F-35 jets the Pentagon buys next year; Pentagon order for Lockheed Martin’s stealthy fighter will drop to below 70, down from an expected order of 83, for an estimated $1.6B drop in spending.

• In Media/Content Delivery: AKAM mixed results as shares slide, as reported in-line q4 revs helped by a surprise Compute beat, offset by Delivery and Security (deceleration on easier compare) misses, and another large-customer renewal cycle kicks-in with lower pricing/traffic reramp. IAC and ANGI delivered solid 4Q profitability. While 2024 IAC EBITDA guidance of $320M-$420M was below estimates of $418M. GDDY downgraded from Outperform to In Line w/ $110 PT (from $100) at Evercore on valuation noting the co reported a Mixed & Bracket Q4, with Revenue in-line with the Street, Bookings a tad below the Street, and uFCF & NEBITDA modestly ahead of the Street.

• In Cyber Security Software earnings preview, Keybanc said they are cautious on PANW (remain OW) into the print given weaker checks vs prior quarters, mixed results from peers FTNT & CHKP, and relatively high expectations with PANW 25% YTD vs IGV +5% (lowers ests – but remain positive on PANW LT); said checks were strong with CRWD and ZS, while checks were solid on S and OKTA. Lastly, the firm is positive on MDB on stable-to-accelerating growth with the public cloud vendors and solid CQ4 consumption trends and commentary from data peers CFLT & DDOG.
• SSNC Q4 results came in above expectations on the top and bottom line fueled by broad-based improvement in organic growth to 4.5% Y/Y. Needham noted while the Intralinks, Alternatives, and Retirement businesses continue to lead the way, SSNC also saw improvement in its Advent and Eze segments.
• SSTI announced yesterday Chicago will not renew its SSTI contract expiring February 16, and will “decommission” the service on September 22 (Chicago was one of SSTI’s largest customers at roughly $8M/year).

• GFS downgraded from Buy to Neutral at Citigroup as believes it will take a couple of years for GFS to get back to peak EPS given increased capacity from competitors should pressure pricing and revenue growth.
• SMCI adds to recent gains, new all-time highs topping $880 as extends winning streak to 8-days on AI growth hopes and rises 17 of last 19 days.