Closing Recap

Friday, January 02, 2026

U.S. stocks were higher overnight, slipping in the first hour of trading into negative territory and held lower most of the day before a late day snapped the 4-day losing streak for the S&P 500 index. There were a few positive global trade headlines overnight that boosted sentiment including the U.S. dropping plans to impose 92% antidumping tariffs on Italian pasta along with reports that President Donald Trump postponed higher tariffs on upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets, and vanities that were set to go into effect on Thursday. Tech stocks (semis/AI) saw a jump to kick off the year which helped early market action, though software was weak all day (MSFT, CRM, ADBE, etc.). However, the Energy sector rose 2%, while Tech, Utilities and Materials saw more than 1% gains in the S&P while Consumer Discretionary and Communications lagged. Overall volumes and stock market news flow were slow, and no major economic data as volume likely picks up next week with holiday behind us.

Reminder next week’s focus could be on tech as the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) 2026 runs from January 6 to January 9 in Las Vegas. CES Unveiled and press conferences featuring Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang and AMD (AMD) CEO Lisa Su which means you can expect artificial intelligence to be front and center at the trade show. he other big topic is expected to be robotics, with humanoid robots likely on display, as well as a number of robotic arms, AI-powered drones, and self-driving cars. AI-powered wearables and fitness trackers could also make their debut at CES 2026. Drone names to possibly watch could be AVAV, KTOS, AMBA, RCAT, DPRO; robotics and automation TER, ROK, YASKY, ABBNY, humanoids TSLA, XPEV, SFTBY, RR, SERV, SYM, HYMYYF etc. among many others.

Key macro-observations (per Canaccord) heading into 2026: 1) Inflation is under control, but consumers are still fearful: tariff pressures have eased while improving housing affordability could be a persistent 2026 benefit. 2) Constructive credit backdrop: see a healthy credit environment, with supportive financial conditions, strong corporate debt service, and ample liquidity. 3) Improving economic growth: this is especially true in services/see a solid case for upside to current 2026 consensus of 1.9% real GDP growth. 4) Consumer confidence is still struggling; this is grounded in inflation and unemployment fears. While inflation should fade as a concern, unemployment trepidation may persist with the highest unemployment rate in years. 5) US & Global rate cutting cycle should continue: Japan is an outlier, and several major central banks (ECB, BOE, BOC) have signaled an end to easing, but the US still has room to go as do several important countries, creating a growth tailwind. 6) Corporate earnings remain resilient: we see a strong case for a 4th consecutive positive year for stocks, despite stretched valuations.

In weekly sentiment data: 1) The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was +15% vs +2.6% last week. Bulls rise to 42.0% from 37.4%, Neutrals rise to 31.0% from 27.8%, Bears drop to 27.0% from 34.8. 2) Last week’s NAAIM Exposure Index fell slightly to 92.93 from the prior week’s 95.08 – 10/29 Reading of 100.83 was the highest since 7-3-24 – 2025 trough from 4-16 of 35.16 – Last Quarter Average (Q4) of 92.26.

Stats going into the new trading Year: 1) @charliebilello noted, “US Large Caps outperformed US Small Caps by 5% in 2025, their 5th straight year of outperformance. That ties 1994-1998 for the longest streak of Large Cap outperformance ever. That prior streak was followed by 6 straight years of Small Cap outperformance (1999-2004).”

• In Metals, after a 140% spike for silver in 2025, 62% for gold, 132% for platinum and 42% for copper, metal prices opened higher this morning before reversing in massive volatility for precious/industrial metals. Silver the last 4 days: +9.05%, -7.19%, +4.5%, -6.61% – with the Silver ETF now again +4.55% premarket before falling. Aluminum prices climbed above $3,000 a Ton for the first time in more than three years on a tightening supply outlook and long-term demand bets. February gold prices dipped $11.50 or 0.27% to settle at $4,329.60 an ounce – off earlier highs of $4,414.80 an ounce while silver prices. Bitcoin rallied1.5% to around $89,500 and Ethereum +4% above $3,100 as crypto extending morning gains and rebounding after Bitcoin prices fell -6% in 2025.

• RIVN said Q4 deliveries 9,745 units versus visible alpha estimate 10,050 units; Q4 production 10,974 units said FY deliveries 42,247 units versus visible alpha estimate 42,500 units and FY production 42,284 units.
• Monthly delivery and production numbers for China EVs:
• BYD Corp. (BYDDF) said sales growth slowed to 7.73% in 2025, its weakest pace in five years; BYD’s total sales were down 18.3% in December from a year earlier, extending declines for a fourth month and marking the largest monthly drop in nearly two years. For the full year, sales rose by 7.73% to 4.6M units, meeting its slashed target.
• Li Auto (LI) announced that it delivered 44,246 vehicles in December 2025. This brought the Company’s fourth-quarter deliveries to 109,194. As of December 31, 2025, Li Auto’s cumulative deliveries reached 1,540,215.
• Nio (NIO) said 48,135 vehicles were delivered in December 2025, increasing by 54.6% Y/y; said 124,807 vehicles were delivered in the three months ended December 2025, increasing by 71.7% Y/y; said 326,028 vehicles were delivered in 2025 in total, increasing by 46.9% Y/y.
• XPeng (XPEV) said it delivered 37,508 vehicles in December 2025, representing a Y/y increase of 2%. Total annual deliveries in 2025 reached 429,445 units, representing a 126% increase Y/y; for the full year 2025, Xpeng delivered 45,008 vehicles in overseas markets, up 96% Y/y, and expanded its global footprint to 60 countries and regions.

• In Casinos (WYNN, LVS, MLCO, MGM), Macau gaming revenue rose solidly in December, but less than expected. Gaming revenue rose 14.8% y/y to 20.9 billion patacas ($2.6 billion), which was down 0.9% vs. November and below an analyst forecast of 18% growth, according to Bloomberg. Gaming revenue for 2025 climbed 9.1% for the full year.

• OTLK shares fall after the FDA issued a complete response letter to the ONS-5010/LYTENAVA (bevacizumab-vikg) biologics license application resubmission, indicating that it cannot approve the application in its present form for the treatment of wet age-related macular degeneration.

• Data Center plays such as IREN, CLSK, CIFR, WULF, saw early gains after lagging last month; the Bitcoin miner names had turned attention to AI data center plays in 2025.
• US listed China stocks start the year off strong with gains in BABA, BIDU, JD, NTES, PDD.
• VRT was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Barclay’s and raised tgt to $200 from $181, saying its shares currently offer a good entry point following recent volatility