Closing Recap

Monday, June 16, 2025

U.S. stocks were broadly higher overnight which carried into Monday’s trading amid hopes of easing tensions between Israel and Iran in the Middle East and positioning ahead of this Wednesday’s FOMC policy meeting, where no changes to interest rate policy are widely expected. Stocks got a bump this morning after the Wall Street Journal reported Iran has been urgently signaling that it seeks an end to hostilities and resumption of talks over its nuclear programs, sending messages to Israel and the U.S. via Arab intermediaries, Middle Eastern and European officials said. Tehran has told Arab officials they would be open to return to the negotiating table as long as the U.S. doesn’t join the attack, the officials said. The commentary boosted stock prices to highs while sinking commodity prices (gold and oil). The stock market momentum remained higher pretty much all-day following Friday’s brief one day pullback as NYSE breadth was higher (led by technology, communications, financials and consumer discretionary while decliners included energy, healthcare, and utilities). Treasury yields edged higher along with Bitcoin prices, while the dollar, gold, and oil prices are finished lower.

Friday, 6/20 will be a busy trading day, given it is a quadruple witching Friday (simultaneous expiration of index futures, index options, stock futures, and stock options) and 2Q25 rebalance Friday for several major market indexes. Still, we have an abbreviated trading week with U.S. markets closed on Thursday June 19^th. Central banks this week include: 1) The FOMC rate decision is Wednesday and looks unlikely to bring any significant change in stance from the Fed, with officials having recently stressed that there is scope for patience as they await more clarity on trade policy. Rates are widely expected to remain unchanged rates at 4.25% with similar language; 2) The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is broadly seen holding its policy rate at 0.50% this week, as it navigates a strengthening inflation outlook alongside ongoing tariff uncertainty; 3) 4he Riksbank meets on Wednesday and Street is mixed on rates staying put or maybe a cut; 4) the SNB policy meeting is Thursday with wide expectations for a rate cut of -25bp back to 0%.

• August gold prices fell -$35.50 or about 1% to settle at $3,417.30 an ounce (off overnight highs $3,476.30) falling from eight-week highs, as the market remains focused on Israel-Iran tensions and the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting this week. The U.S. dollar weakened (DXY) after the WSJ Iran story as well as the news revived risk-taking in financial markets. The dollar index posts its lowest close since February 2023.
• U.S. Treasury yields were little changed with focus turning to the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and projections on Wednesday. Money markets price in the Fed leaving the rate target range at 4.25%-4.50% but investors will watch for any comments about inflation which is cooled in recent months as per data.

• In Retailers: saw early strength in retailers that have notable presences in China (EL, NKE, SBUX) after China’s retail sales grew 6.4% last month, the fastest pace since December 2023 and exceeding all estimates. VSCO shares rallied after activist investor Barington Capital Group, which owns more than 1% of co, in a letter says disappointed with the co’s recently adopted poison pill plan. Barington plans to change VSCO’s board to end the plan, a person familiar with the situation told Reuters on Sunday. COTY shares saw a midday spike after Women’s Wead Daily (WWD) reported Coty is seeking buyers for its businesses https://tinyurl.com/5xdp2mc7
• In Casinos & Gaming: Entain said BetMGM, its U.S. sports-betting joint venture with MGM raised its annual revenue and core earnings forecast, driven by strong growth in its iGaming and online sports divisions; raises FY25 revenue view to at least $2.6B from $2.4B-$2.5B and said sees FY25 EBITDA at least $100M. GAMB positive mention by Benchmark saying they believe Gambling.com is poised to benefit materially from the rollout of federally regulated prediction markets, which may also act as a powerful catalyst for legislative momentum in U.S. gaming policy.

• In Industrials: ETN signed an agreement to buy Ultra PCS from Cobham Ultra in a $1.55 billion deal aimed at expanding the power-management company’s position in fast-growing aerospace markets. ETN said Ultra PCS’s solutions for safety and mission-critical aerospace systems will bolster its portfolio.
• In Aerospace & Defense: Shares of defense stocks such as LMT, NOC, GD, RTX, LHX, which saw outsized gains on Friday following the military attacks back and forth between Israel and Iran, saw pullbacks today following reports Iran has been urgently signaling that it seeks an end to hostilities and resumption of talks over its nuclear programs, sending messages to Israel and the U.S. via Arab intermediaries.

• In Mortgage Industry: The typical U.S. homebuyer’s down payment is $62,468, down by roughly 1% y/y, RDFN says, the first annual decline in nearly two years. In percentage terms, the typical U.S. homebuyer puts down 15% of the purchase price, essentially unchanged from 15.1% a year earlier. The median U.S. down payment has been around 15% for the last four years. Before the pandemic, the typical down payment was around 10%
• In Payments & FinTech: TOST was maintained Buy and $50 PT at Jefferies saying they remain confident in the company’s ability to deliver 25%+ recurring GPS growth through 2027; CTLP shares rose after entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by 365 Retail Markets, LLC, a leading innovator in unattended retail technologies, in an all-cash transaction with an equity value of approximately $848 million with holders to receive $11.20 per share in cash (34% premium); PYPL shares rose after Trump Mobile names the company among its payment processing partners.

• CAI: Cancer diagnostic firm Caris Life Sciences (CAI) said it was targeting a valuation of $5.67B in its U.S. initial public offering (IPO), after raising its proposed price range. The company is marketing the IPO at a price range between $19 and $20 apiece, according to a regulatory filing – Reuters.
• INCY released data from two studies of its monoclonal antibody treatment INCA033989 that showed "rapid and durable normalization of platelet counts across all dose levels" in patients with mutant calreticulin-expressing myeloproliferative neoplasms, a group of rare blood cancers (upgraded to Buy at Stifel).
• KALV shares slip after the FDA extended its review of the company’s experimental drug, sebetralstat, citing heavy workload and limited resources.
• LLY announced that the highest approved doses of Zepbound (tirzepatide)–12.5 mg and 15 mg–will soon be available in single-dose vials for $499 per month through LillyDirect’s Self Pay Pharmacy Solutions and the Zepbound Self Pay Journey Program.
• SAGE agreed to be acquired by SUPN in a deal worth up to $795 million as Supernus has offered $8.50 in cash for each of Sage’s shares and up to $3.50 per share in cash if certain milestones are achieved.
• SONM confirms receipt of unsolicited acquisition interest from Doogee to acquire co for $3.60 per share.
• SRPT shares tumble after announces another death due to acute liver failure in a 2nd non-ambulatory Duchenne muscular dystrophy patient treated with Elevidys and is suspending shipments to non-ambulatory DMD patients until an immunosuppressive regimen can be agreed upon with regulators and implemented.
• URGN was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at HCW with $50 tgt after recently announced that the FDA had approved ZUSDURI, the first and only FDA-approved medication for adults with recurrent low-grade, intermediate-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (LG-IR-NMIBC).
• In Managed Care and Hospitals, shares fell (UHS, CYH, THC, HCA, UNH, ELV, etc.) on reports that all the changes that slashed coverage in the House bill are still in the Senate version, plus tighter clamps on the provider tax & SPDs means fewer resources for states & probably more coverage losses. The catastrophe for Medicaid in the House is worse in the Senate.

• Metals & Mining: Precious metals give back some gains (NEM, AU, KGC) from last week after gold and silver prices jumped behind increased tensions in the Middle East between Iran/Israel; in Steel stocks, U.S. Steel (X) shares rise after Nippon Steel’s purchase of U.S. Steel was approved after the companies signed an agreement with the Trump administration that resolves national-security concerns.
• In Chemicals: Keybanc said over the weekend, Chemical Market Analytics published its revised forecast for U.S. contract polyethylene (PE) prices. Prices are now expected to rise $0.05/lb. m/m in July, compared to a rollover previously. The revision is largely predicated on three factors: 1) stronger domestic demand (+6% m/m in May); 2) lower inventory levels (-11% m/m in May); and 3) stronger crude oil prices due to the Middle East conflict. Overall, KEYB sees the recent development in the PE market as an incremental positive for producers (DOW, LYB, WLK) in the short term, and, to a lesser degree, for OLN (via EDC exposure). However, KEYB’s sense is the revised forecast is based on higher crude oil prices more so than other factors.

• In Telecom: shares of Telco firms TMUS, VZ, AT shares slipped early after the Trump Organization launched a self-branded mobile network on Monday, dubbed Trump Mobile, signaling a new effort to court conservative consumers with a wireless service positioned as an alternative to major telecom providers. Says ‘Mobile’ to have numerous features, such as roadside assistance and telemedicine and the new mobile venture to have phones made and call centers based in the U.S. Separately, Bloomberg reported late Friday that President Trump has told SATS and the FCC to come to a deal on the SATS spectrum that is being disputed. Bloomberg notes the President said he didn’t want a major American company to go bankrupt.
• In Internet: the DOJ’s antitrust division is reviewing GOOGL’s $32B acquisition of Wiz to assess potential competition impacts, Bloomberg reports. The review is in the early stages and could last months. WIX was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo and raised its tgt to $216 from $173
• In Networking & Equipment: CSCO was upgraded to Buy from Hold with $73 PT at Deutsche Bank saying improved visibility towards durable mid-single-digit growth in upcoming years, with tailwinds from AI (across webscale, enterprise and sovereign), a Campus portfolio refresh, more favorable near-term competitive dynamics in Networking and improved scale in Security.
• In Data Center and AI: CRWV was downgraded from Buy to Neutral at Bank America though boosted price tgt to $185 from $76 as the stock has run up 145%. The firm said believes much of the near-term upside has been priced in and downgrade its rating to Neutral from Buy despite noting positive developments including: (1) a new hyperscaler customer; (2) expansion on OpenAI agreement; and (3) debt raise at lower cost of capital
• In Semiconductors: among the leaders again in tech as the SOX rises over 3%, led by hefty gains in AMD up as much as 10% as the AI related theme continues to push tech higher. Piper Sandler said Advanced Micro Devices caught up with the investment community last week after showcasing upcoming artificial-intelligence hardware that aims to position the company’s chips as a realistic alternative to Nvidia’s