Closing Recap

Monday, June 23, 2025

US equity futures dipped early in the overnight session following the surprise bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities but recovered by morning to trade around the unchanged line before notching a small rally into the open as the world awaited an Iranian military response against US assets. Views seemed to be converging on expectations of an Iranian retaliation as soon as the next day or two. Gold was slightly lower overnight, also reflecting a lack of panic in the markets, while oil gained about a percent early but faded to just a small gain into the open. On sentiment, today’s Fear & Greed Index was 55/100 (high end of Neutral) versus 61 (Greed) last week and 63 (Greed) last month. By mid-morning, breadth favored advancers by almost 2:1 in a broad rally as small caps underperformed (but gained) with IWM (+0.29%) versus SPY (+0.53%) and QQQ (+0.72%). On a sector basis, somewhat surprisingly, only Energy was in the red as Consumer Discretionary (+1.94%), Real Estate (+1.01%) and Utilities (+0.82%) were outperformers, while Financials (+0.18%), Health Care (+0.11%) and Energy (-0.40%) led the underperformers.

In noteworthy data today, @charlibilello noted the spread between the lowest and highest yields among five major asset classes is the lowest on record at less than 1% (BofA US Corporate Bond Index at 5.19% versus the three-month T-Bill at 4.32%, with the S&P 500 earnings yield in the middle at 4.72%). On today’s existing home sales release, @LizAnnSonders noted it was the weakest May sales pace since 2009 with inventory rising by 6.2% to 1.54 million houses. On Fed cutting odds, @CScottGarliss noted the bond market is now pricing in a second cut in October rather than December, but the odds of a third cut in December are rising. Lastly, on jobs, @GlobalMktObserv noted permanent job losers reached 1.92 million in May, the highest in four years, but also noted there is a youth unemployment crisis with US college graduates’ unemployment rate averaging 6.6% the past 12 months (highest in ten years ex. 2020-2021) and high-school grads (aged 18-19) jobless rate hitting an average 14.5%.

Following some see-saw action intra-day and the well-telegraphed Iranian military retaliation, US equities returned to gains and held on into the final hour of trading. Breadth continued to favor advancers by almost 2:1 as small caps were mixed with IWM (+0.82%) versus SPY (+0.79%) and QQQ (+0.93%). Health Care joined Energy in the decliners column on a sector basis with Consumer Discretionary (+2.05%), Real Estate (+1.25%) and Utilities (+1.00%) outperforming among S&P sector ETFs, while Materials (+0.82%), Health Care (-0.11%) and Energy (-2.54%) led the underperformers. Obviously, tariffs headlines now have a partner to drive markets with the US “entry” into the Israel/Iran conflict so there is plenty to watch as investors continue to search for confidence in the direction and timing of future Fed moves.

•     S&P Global Services PMI Flash 53.1 versus forecast 52.9 and prior 53.7.
•     S&P Global Composite PMI Flash 52.8 versus forecast 52.1 and prior 53.0.
•     Existing Home Sales M/M for May 4.03Mm vs forecast 3.95Mm and prior 4.00Mm.

• Aug WTI crude futures gained overnight but faded into the open and kept going to notch losses through much of the morning. Headlines indicating an Iranian retaliation could be coming as early as today then generated a rally pushing the active contract back to green before the retaliatory strike was very limited and announced in advance to minimize casualties. With the focus now turning back to potential diplomatic resolutions, oil was free to slide without significant supply fears as a support and settled down $5.33/bbl, or -7.22%, at $68.51.  Brent settled down $5.53, or -7.18%, to $71.48/bbl.

• Chinese EV maker LiAuto LI said it will introduce a new electric SUV in September.
• RIVN announced that they delivered 10,000 More Vans to Amazon in the First Half of 2025.
• New STLA CEO Antonio Filosa announced a new leadership team.
• TM to raise the prices of some vehicles it sells in the US by more than $200 starting next month.

• Investment firm Prosus (PROSY) said they were ‘very confident’ of early EU approval for $4.7B Just Eat deal (JTKWY).
• Private co. C&S Wholesale Grocers announced they will acquire SpartanNash SPTN for $26.90 per share in cash, deal valued at $1.77B including assumed net debt. SPTN shares were +50% on the news.
• GIS debuts ‘fresh’ Blue Buffalo, eyes $10B sales.
• EL was upgraded to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank, citing company’s moves to diversify beyond China for growth; PT increased to $95 from $71, shares were +4%.
• HRL announced the promotion of John Ghingo to President & Jeffrey M. Ettinger to serve as Interim CEO for 15 months; The co. also initiated as a Buy at Goldman Sachs with a $35 PT.
• SCHL moved higher on update after the co. announced strategic and operational initiatives; FY25 adj. EBITDA guidance.

• Real estate brokerage company COMP has filed a lawsuit against Z over its policy to ban private home listings

• Shares of VAC were +2% following a filing that Director Christian Asmar bought 750K shares on June 18.

• BKR has taken temporary precautionary measures to demobilize personnel from Iraq – spokesperson.
• Brazil’s PBR is not expected to hike fuel prices for now, any move would depend on sustained shift in global oil prices – sources (Reuters).
• SMR CEG New York state reportedly seeking to add 1GW of nuclear power per the WSJ.
• With a heat wave blanketing the Northeast, Con Ed (ED) asks some customers in Staten Island to conserve energy.
• OKLO shares fell following a downgrade from Craig-Hallum from Buy to Hold on an “uncharterd regulatory path.”
• CVX XOM COP Large cap energy names fade to negative in the afternoon session after crude oil prices collapse following Iran’s tempered response to the US attack so far as the Strait of Hormuz remains open

• NTRS shares remained in positive territory all day after news that BK had approached NTRS over a possible merger. Norther Trust put out a midday statement saying they were committed to staying independent.

• MSTR reported that during the period June 16 to June 22 they bought 245 BTC for $26.0M – SEC filing

• Standard Biotools (LAB) shares were +20% as they announced they had entered the next phase of transformation with strategic sale of Somalogic to ILMN, a deal valued at up to $425M with $350M upfront.
• RVMD announced FDA breakthrough therapy designation for daraxonrasib in previously treated metastatic pancreatic cancer with KRAS G12 mutations.
• EBS shares were higher after the US was awarded an additional $62.4M for botulism treatment stockpile contract.
• Results from AMGN’s phase 2 obesity study of monthly maritide presented at the American diabetes association 85th scientific sessions.
• LRMR shares fell after announcing FDA Recommendations on Safety Database, and Other Details of Nomlabofusp BLA Submission for Friedreich’s Ataxia Program.
• EXEL shares soared in the morning session & remained positive despite an afternoon fade following Sunday’s announcement: Zanzalintinib Combination With Atezolizumab Achieves Survival Benefit In Intent-To-Treat Population Of Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients.

• TDOC shares were higher following a bullish post on X by Citron Research.
• UHS HCA THC Stat News reports that Senate Republicans are discussing new ways to cut Medicaid in Trump’s tax bill.
• The FTC is intensifying scrutiny of private co. Aya Healthcare’s proposed acquisition of Cross Country Healthcare (CCRN).
• CI Lawmakers seek to close VA loophole that funnels billions to private Medicare insurers per the WSJ.
• Shares of CRMD were higher after an LDO update and increases Q2 net sales guidance to $35m-$40m.

• LMT Lockheed, Northrop, Other Defense Stocks Rise After Iran Strikes buy faded in afternoon trading after Iran’s afternoon strike against us Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar seemed underwhelming.
• LDOS was awarded $87M contract for NATO centralized it solution.

• SANW shares fell over 50% after announcing Mark Herrmann was terminated as President and CEO – SEC filing.
• CMC shares turned positive in afternoon trading following this morning’s EPS and revenue miss; the company expects sequential improvement in Q4 with higher steel margins.
• B Gold miners were higher on the Mideast crisis and new that China aims to increase its gold resources by 5-10% by 2027.

• BABA said they would merge food delivery and travel agency platforms into core E-commerce business.
• DJT announced Board of Directors approves up to $400M stock buyback.
• U.S. House’s Chief Administrative Officer informed congressional staffers Monday that WhatsApp (META) is banned on their government devices.
• The FTC took action to resolve antitrust concerns related to OMC’s $13.5B acquisition of IPG.
• A TMUS executive notes over 1.8M customers signed up for T-Satellite Network; to go live on July 23; to launch data on T-Satellite on October 1.

• CRM launched AgentForce 3 to solve the biggest blockers to scaling AI agents: visibility and control.

• Chipmaker AMD was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Melius Research with their PT raised to $175 from $110.
• WOLF to implement comprehensive debt restructuring per a SEC filing; looks to restructure & to reduce debt by about $4.6B & expects to emerge from chapter 11 by Q3.