Closing Recap

Wednesday, June 25, 2025

US equity futures were flattish overnight with no major developments between Israel and Iran and a will-they-or-won’t-they ceasefire seemingly in place. There were no significant economic releases and only a few earnings reports so perhaps it could be a more relaxed summer trading session. Mid-morning brought little change with equities still hovering near unchanged but with small gains in the S&P while the Nasdaq outperformed. Breadth favored decliners by 2:1 as small caps eased with IWM (-0.91%) versus SPY (+0.19%) and QQQ (+0.45%).  Technology (+0.94%), Communications (+0.38%) and Energy (-0.07%) were outperformers among S&P sector ETFs, while Utilities (-0.98%), Consumer Discretionary (-1.04%) and Real Estate (-1.09%) paced the underperformers with only Technology and Communications moving higher. Today’s Fear & Greed Index held in the Greed range at 62/100 compared to 54 (Neutral) last week and 63 (Greed) last month, while the sell-side upgrade/downgrade ratio continued to run sub-50% at 42.9% month-to-date versus 38.7% in May, 47.7% in April and 56.3% in March.

In noteworthy data today, @PeterMallouk noted while the average return of the S&P 500 is 10%/yr, the market only performed within 2% of average in four of the past 97 years. An argument for long-term diversified holdings. Also on S&P performance, @ Isabelnet_SA noted since 1998 when the S&P 500 gained in both May and June, the remainder of the year gained 15 of 16 times with an average +8.8%. Separately, @KobeissiLetter noted US technology stocks posted the largest net inflows last week since June 2024, at $4.4B, more than four times all other sectors combined. Per BofA, institutional net buying of technology shares hit roughly $3B last week, marking the highest since their records started in 2008. On a less positive note, also from @KobeissiLetter, the jobs plentiful vs hard-to-get gap declined to 11.1%, the lowest since 2017 excluding the pandemic. This has been a leading indicator for unemployment in prior cycles and now suggests unemployment may rise to about 6% in coming months.

Heading into the final hour of trading, stocks had faded a bit to a more mixed position with breadth still favoring decliners by about 2:1 as small caps underperformed with IWM (-0.88%) versus SPY also in the red (-0.01%) and QQQ notching a small gain (+0.12%). Sector performance remained uninspiring with Technology (+0.71%) and Health Care (+0.08%) now the only gainers versus Consumer Staples (-1.27%), Utilities (-1.30%) and Consumer Discretionary (-1.33%) leading the rest lower. Absent any major trade or Israel/Iran headlines, most investors likely will be focused on jobless claims and core PCE data to dictate market movements through the remainder of the week.

• New Home Sales M/M for May -13.7% versus forecast -6.7% and prior +10.9%; units 0.623M vs forecast 0.693M and prior 0.743M.

• August WTI crude futures gained overnight following two big selling days as traders moved back to more “normal” supply/demand expectations. Futures then extended gains on inventory data showing a draw of 5.836M versus the forecast draw of 1.1M before settling up $0.55/bbl, or +0.85%, at $64.92.

• BYDDY is slowing EV production and expansion in China, sources say.
• Shares of EV battery co. MVST were unchanged following a mid-morning short report published by Grizzly Reports.
• OSK announced an agreement with The Netherlands for 150 Dutch Expeditionary Patrol Vehicles.

• BIGC and Feedonomics Team Up with Perplexity to Help Brands Excel at AI Product Search.
• Shares of ULTA were lower after announcing a CFO change and lowering FY25 guidance.
• Ring (AMZN) unveiled an AI-powered video descriptions for enhanced home security monitoring.
•  PYPL announced it has teamed up with Taco Bell to deliver a fast, secure, and deliciously rewarding way to pay in the Taco Bell app and website.
• CAG stated they would remove FD&C colors from U.S. frozen products by end of 2025.
•  EU antitrust regulators to investigate Mars’ $36B Kellanova (K) deal.
• YUM shares were higher after being upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan, citing sustained 4% unit growth, FCF strength, and more attractive valuation; PT decreased however to $162 from $170.

• OKLO announced strategic collaborations with Hexium and Terrapower; collaboration to build scalable U.S. nuclear fuel supply. OKLO shares fell as did the entire nuclear group SMR (downgraded at BTIG) NNE in a risk-off day for the high-flying sector.
• Mirion Technologies (MIR) shares moved higher after the company announced a partnership with Westinghouse to provide digital Ex-core Nuclear Instrumentation Systems.
• CEG’s efforts to restart the Three Mile Island plant are moving faster than expected, with the company now saying the Pennsylvania nuclear site will begin producing power earlier than forecast. per Bloomberg.
• Shares of BP spiked +7% after the WSJ reported that SHEL was in early stage talks to buy the company. Shares faded after a SHEL spokesperson refuted the story.

• Shares of FLG lost ground after a Morgan Stanley note said that rent freezes in NYC would hurt the bank.

• The Trump family announced they are partnering with HUT, which will build and run their bitcoin-mining operations – The Information.
• PAYX reported earnings: Q4 Adj. EPS $1.19, Inline, Sales $1.427B Miss $1.436B Est.; FY26 Outlook: Adj EPS $5.40-$5.50 vs $5.31 Est.; Sales $6.49B-$6.60B vs $6.36B Est.; Shares were lower by over 8% in mid-afternoon trading.
• FMCC are now indicated to be preparing to count crypto as assets for mortgages.

• Shares of CTO fell following a short report by Wolfpack Research.

• VKTX announced initiation of phase 3 obesity clinical program with GLP-1/GIP agonist VK2735.
• GILD and KYMR announced they entered into an exclusive option and license agreement to develop novel oral molecular glue CDK2 degraders; Kymera is eligible to receive up to $750M in payments.
• KYMR announces SNY report IRAT4 collaboration update: Sanofi to advance Kymera’s KT-485 into clinical testing.
• FOLD announces approval of pombiliti® (cipaglucosidase alfa) + opfolda® (miglustat) in Japan.
• BIIB to advance investigational spinal muscular atrophy asset to registrational studies based on positive interim phase 1 results.
• ROIV authorizes $500M share repurchase program – SEC filing.
• CRBP announced first patient dosed with its nectin-4 targeting adc crb-701 in combination with pembrolizumab.
• ACAD announced that they were on track to deliver over $1B in net sales this year.
•  CNTM shares fell after Providing Update on Phase 1B Positron Emission Tomography (PET) Trial of PIPE-791.

• SYK receives FDA clearance for Incompass Total Ankle System.
• Methodist Hospitals Selected PHG to Advance Neurovascular, Cardiology and Complex Interventional Radiology Services in Northwest Indiana.

• RKLB announced that it has been selected by the European Space Agency (ESA) to launch two LEO-PNT Pathfinder A satellites for Europe’s next-generation navigation system.
• UAVS Announces 100th Drone Sale to South Korea as International Footprint Continues to Expand.

• TMC shares rose 15% following an upgrade at Wedbush to Outperform based on Trump’s executive order in April on domestic critical mineral mining.
• FCX TECK SCCO Goldman Sachs notes it upgraded 2h 2025 LME copper price forecast to average of $9,890, up from $9,140 earlier.

• AAPL Poised To Offer App Store Changes To Dodge More EU Fines per Bloomberg.
• Mediator proposes $20M settlement in trump’s CBS (PARA) suit.

•  RBRK agreed to buy AI startup Predibase for over $100M.

• SITM shares fell after announcing a $350M common stock offering through UBS, Stifel, and Needham.