Closing Recap

Thursday, June 26, 2025

US equity futures posted modest gains overnight as investors waited for a large batch of pre-market economic data. Q1 GDP came in a little light but so did Initial Jobless Claims, so there was little reaction in the market and equity gains held as investors continued to price in no change from the Fed at the July meeting but held a 91% probability of a cut in September. This week’s AAII bull-bear spread came in at  -5.2 versus last week’s -8.2 with bulls gaining from 33.2% to 35.1% while bears dipped from 41.4% to 40.3%. Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed Index remained in the Greed column at 61/100 compared to 55 (Neutral) last week and 63 (Greed) last month but 40 (Fear) last year. Equities added to gains mid-morning with breadth favoring advancers in a broad rally by almost 3:1 with small caps outperforming in a reversal from yesterday on IWM (+0.93%) versus SPY (+0.52%) and QQQ (+0.50%). Sector performance also was broadly positive with Materials (+1.22%), Industrials (+1.06%) and Energy (+0.90%) outperforming while Utilities (+0.29%), Consumer Staples (-0.17%) and Real Estate (-0.63%) led the underperformers.

In noteworthy data today, @MikeZaccardi noted per Vanguard the average 401(k) contribution rate hit an all-time high of 7.7% while the employee plus employer rate (total contribution rate) also hit a record at 12.0%. Meanwhile, @DataTrekMB noted the VIX closed well below its long-term average yesterday and the modal observation for the year, suggesting stocks will grind higher as correlations decline in the near term. On semiconductor stocks, @KobeissiLetter highlighted the sector hit a record 12.1% of the S&P 500 total market value, with share of the index having doubled during the past three years. Lastly, @GlobalMktObserv noted the Conference Board Leading Economic Index has fallen about 5% annualized over six months, a recession signal, and is down about 16% from its peak while hitting a nine-year low. Similar declines have preceded every US recession since 1960.

Heading into the final hour of trading, equities held solid gains across the cap spectrum. Breadth continued to favor advancers by just over 3:1 as small caps outperformed with IWM (+1.36%) versus SPY (+0.72%) and QQQ (+0.89%). Only Health Care, Consumer Staples and Real Estate were in the red among S&P sector ETFs as Energy (+1.15%), Industrials (+1.10%) and Materials (+1.01%) outperformed versus Health Care (-0.02%), Consumer Staples (-0.17%) and Real Estate (-1.01%) pacing the underperformers. Both value and growth enjoyed an up day with growth the outperformer as the Russell 1000 Growth gained 0.96% versus its Value counterpart +0.62% with less than an hour to go in the session.

• US GDP Q1 Final -0.5% versus forecast -0.2% and prior -0.2%.
• US GDP Deflator SA Final 3.8% versus previous 3.4%.
• US Core PCE Prices Final 3.5% versus forecast 3.4% and previous 3.4%.
• US Advance Good Trade Balance for May -96.6B versus forecast -86.1B and prior -86.97B.
• US Durable Goods Orders for May 16.4% versus forecast 8.5% and prior -6.3%.
• US Durable Goods Orders Ex Transports for May 0.5% versus forecast unchanged.
• Pending Home Sales M/M for May 1.8% versus forecast 0.13% and prior -6.3%; +1.1% yr/yr.
• Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Composite for June -2 versus forecast -5 and prior -3.

• August WTI crude continued to rebound overnight as traders took advantage of the recent sell-off and lower Dollar. Though equities strengthened during the day, oil never found much of a rally and finished fairly flat to its pre-market level to settle at $65.24/bbl, up $0.32, or +0.49%.

• In another headline, XIACY announced they received over 200,000 pre-orders of YU7 SUV in 3 minutes.
• TSLA‘s Robotaxi service has its first reported ‘safety concern’ per Business Insider; Austin reported a "safety concern" with a Tesla Robotaxi.
• Charlotte drops TSLA from an approved city vehicle list, alleging safety issues per the NY Post. TSLA shares battled back from morning session lows and went green in the afternoon.
• TSLA executive and Elon Musk confidant Omead Afshar departs (“fired” by Musk per Forbes) company after 7+ years. Additionally, Tesla HR exec Jenna Ferrum is noted to depart.
• RIVN cuts dozens on manufacturing team ahead of R2 launch per a 10am TechCrunch article.
• UBER looks to fund the purchase of US arm of Pony.ai (PONY). Uber is in talks with Travis Kalanick, to help fund his acquisition of the U.S. arm of a Chinese autonomous vehicles company, two people with knowledge of the matter said. The company, Pony.ai, was founded in Silicon Valley in 2016 but has its main presence in China and has permits to operate robot taxis and trucks in the United States and China.
• WMT notes it will close Sam’s Club e-commerce fulfillment center in Fort Worth, Texas, and that it could affect hundreds of employees.

Homebuilders, Building Products, Home Furnishing:

• AYI shares moved higher after the company reported better-than-expected Q3 financial results.
• TREX shares fell following last night’s news that CFO Brenda Lovcik resigned.
• IP to exit molded fiber business; to close packaging facility in Marion, Ohio; to sell Mexican operations to APSA.
• PENN shares were higher after an upgrade to market outperform from Citizens JMP, believing the co. is at an inflection point driven by several catalysts including casino openings/growth and moderating capex.

Energy

• EQNR announced buying 14M barrels of oil from Brazil’s Mero Field, winning lot 3 in auction held by state-run PPSA.
• CNBC’s Brian Sullivan:  "As I reported yesterday, a full SHEL deal for BP is not going to happen. More likely a big overseas buyer (like ADNOC of Abu Dhabi) buys some, Shell buys other pieces.”
• Solar names were higher after a pre-market PR: Invenergy, America’s largest privately held developer, owner and operator of clean energy solutions, and META today announced they have signed 4 additional clean energy agreements that represent an additional 791 megawatts (MW) of procured solar and wind energy. ENPH
• BULL re-enters crypto market with launch in Brazil.

Bitcoin, FinTech, Payments:

• GLXY announced final close of oversubscribed galaxy ventures fund I at over $175M.
• PYPL announced a partnership w/ Big 10 and Big 12 for student athletes.
• BTBT shares declined after completing a $150M Public Offering at $2 to Purchase Ethereum.
• Kraken Launches ‘Krak’ App for Borderless Payments in 110 Countries

REITs:

• UMH Properties (UMH) shakes up management of Optum Health Division per Bloomberg.

Healthcare

Biotech & Pharma:

• PFE announces positive topline phase 3 results for chimpanzee™ in hemophilia A or B with inhibitors; demonstrates superiority in reducing bleeding outcomes.
• CRSP reported positive additional phase 1 data for ctx310™ targeting angptl3 and provides update on in vivo cardiovascular pipeline.
• KALV enters into licensing agreement with Pendopharm to commercialize Sebetralstat for HAE in Canada.
• ALT saw its shares fall over 50% after topline results fell short of expectations; they had announced positive topline results from the impact phase 2B trial of pemvidutide in the treatment of mash; trial achieves 59.1% mash resolution without worsening fibrosis.
• Microcap VOR saw its shares double after announcing, “Vor Bio And RemeGen Sign Global License Agreement for Autoimmune Asset Telitacicept, Securing $125M Payment And $175M Private Placement.
•  INCY appointed Bill Meury CEO; Hervé Hoppenot to retire; elected Julian Baker of Baker Bros. as Chairman of the Board; shares rose on Meury’s past M&A track record.
• LLY to launch full-dose pen device in India as obesity drug race heats up with NVO’s Wegovy already in the market, Eli Lilly is stepping up its game with a patient-friendly pen device.
• NVO announces a new $299 savings offer for wegovy starting July 1; collaborates with Weight Watchers for wegovy access. NVO also announced that they have been very encouraged with our existing Ro and LFMD collaborations. 
• ACIP recommended use of MRK’s enflonsia™ (clesrovimab-cfor) for prevention of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) lower respiratory tract disease in infants younger than 8 months of age born during or entering their first RSV season.

Industrials & Materials

Transports

• Nano-cap CYN saw its shares gain over 500% after they announced its “collaboration” with NVDA as part of the Automatica 2025 robotics and automation showcase. Despite the massive gain, CYN shares are -99.97% since their 2021 IPO.
• Maersk (AMKBY) announced that as of 25 June 2025, cargo acceptance to Haifa port for imports has been reopened.
• DSX announces a time charter contract for M/V DSI Polaris with Cargill Ocean Transportation.

Aerospace & Defense

• Shares of KTOS fell after the company completed a 13M share spot secondary offering.
• Blue Origin and Jeff Bezos reportedly appealed to the White House for more government contracts following Elon Musk’s departure per the WSJ.
• Ascent Solar Technologies (ASTI) Entered into Collaborative Agreement Notice with NASA to Advance Development of Thin-Film PV Power Beaming Capabilities. Shares of the microcap jump over 300% at one point in pre-market trading.
• SPR and BA merger update: UK’s CMA’s invitation to comment closes 15 July 2025; considering whether merger may result in substantial lessening of competition within any market per Reuters.
• GD’s GDIT awarded $580M task order to enhance security and readiness of U.S. Army bases.
• eVOTL names moved higher after FAA Chair Chris Rocheleau posted , “It has been thrilling to see advanced air mobility technologies in action. The FAA is working to safely integrate these new aircraft into our nation’s airspace while supporting innovation and shaping the future of global aviation.” JOBY
• RKLB successfully launched 67th electron mission, scheduled for the next launch in less than 48 hours.

Materials, Metals & Mining

• MP The Wall Street Journal reported that China is still choking exports of Rare Earths despite pact with U.S. Western companies are struggling to secure approvals for rare-earth imports from Chinese authorities, despite U.S.-China deal.
• CF China to relax urea export ban, easing global price pressure per Bloomberg.
• FCX SCCO TECK Copper names were higher, as an analyst at SP Angel explained: "The physical market for copper is tightening as the metal continues to flow to the U.S.

Technology

Internet, Media & Telecom

• FCC Chair notes agency continues normal course review of PARA request for approval of $8.4B merger with Skydance Media.
• DigitalBridge Group (DBRG) said to weigh up to €1B Sale of Finland’s Digital per Bloomberg.
• META is in talks to buy AI voice startup PlayA.
• AAPL changes app store rules in European union to comply with antitrust order.
• TikTok, Instagram (META) Plot TV Apps Following YouTube’s (GOOGL) Success per The Information.

Hardware & Software movers:

• Serve Robotics (SERV) announced the launch of its service in the Atlanta metro area as part of its ongoing collaboration with UberEATS (UBER).
• Shares of Unity (U) moved lower after BofA re-initialed coverage with an Underperform rating and $15.00 PT.
• AMZN loses AWS generative AI boss as tech talent shuffle heats up per Reuters.
• The WSJ reported that CRWV is in talks to acquire CORZ, according to people familiar with the matter, after the AI company’s unsuccessful attempt to buy the digital-infrastructure firm about a year ago. CORZ shares jumped by over 25% on the news. CORZ peers such as RIOT and APLD moved higher in sympathy.

Semiconductors:

• ASML shares were lower following a downgrade to Hold from Buy at Jefferies; the PT was increased however to €690 from €660.
• Shares of MU surrendered all of last night’s and this morning’s earnings-related gains turning red midday despite a slew of PT raises across the street. MU had risen 100% from their April 4^th intraday lows.