Closing Recap

Monday, June 30, 2025

U.S. stocks closed just off the highs on this final day of the month/quarter, also marking the halfway point of the year as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hit fresh record closing levels. For the month the S&P 500 gained 4.96%, the Nasdaq rose 6.57%, and the Dow climbed 4.31%. For the quarter the S&P 500 gained 10.57%, the Nasdaq climbed 17.75%, and the Dow climbed 4.98%, the best quarter for markets since December 2023. Markets remained strong throughout the day after the U.S. and agreed to resume trade talks with Canada after they withdrew a digital-services tax (more trade news below). While stock news was quiet ahead of the holiday shortened trading week (markets closed Friday for the 4^th of July), which is packed with lots of jobs data (JOLTs, ADP and Nonfarm payrolls), major averages held in a fairly tight range led higher by technology, financials, and industrials while energy and consumer discretionary lagged. Oil prices dipped, gold and bitcoin prices rose, the dollar hit 4-year lows vs. the euro and Treasury yields slipped. Big moves today for ORCL, AAPL late day as well as some of the big momentum favorites the last few weeks like HOOD, PLTR, among a handful of others lifting the Nasdaq which rose for a 6^th straight day. While ending the month/quarter strong, is more in store this week as @AlmanacTrader posts, “Most Bullish Day of Year! 1st Day July S&P 500 Up 14 Straight, up 90.5% of the time since 2004, avg gain +0.44%. DJIA & NASDAQ are nearly as strong, up 81.0% and 85.7% respectively. Most consistently bullish day of the year!” Some trade news from President Trump this afternoon caused a little market disturbance briefly as he noted on Truth Social: “To show people how spoiled Countries have become with respect to the United States of America, and I have great respect for Japan, they won’t take our RICE, and yet they have a massive rice shortage. In other words, we’ll just be sending them a letter, and we love having them as a Trading Partner for many years to come.” Meanwhile the EU is said to accept Trump’s universal tariff but seeks key exemptions, according to reports. The EU wants the U.S. to commit to lower rates on key sectors – such as pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors and commercial aircraft – and is pushing for quotas and exemptions to effectively lower a 25% tariff on automobiles and car parts as well as a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum according to a Bloomberg report.

• Oil prices slid with WTI crude down -$0.41 or 0.63% to settle at $65.11 per barrel and Brent down -$0.16 to settle at $67.61 per barrel as investors weighed easing Middle East risks and a possible OPEC+ output increase in August. The dip comes after both Brent and WTI posted their biggest weekly declines since March 2023 last week but are set for a second consecutive monthly gain of 5.9% and 6.9% respectively.
• The Euro hit 4-year highs of 1.775 against the U.S. dollar (and now Euro +13.6% YTD and off January lows around 1.0243); the Aussie dollar hit 7-month highs vs. the greenback. Next up for the dollar, busy round of economic data with May JOLTS, June ISM manufacturing tomorrow before ADP and Nonfarm payroll data the following days.
• In Energy, U.S. shipments of crude oil via rail in April fell by 11,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the previous month to 303,000 bpd, according to data released Monday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Shipments within the United States in April fell by 8,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the previous month to 206,000 bpd, while shipments from Canada to the United states fell by 2,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the previous month to 97,000 bpd.

• In Retailers: BGFV entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by a partnership comprising of Worldwide Golf and Capitol Hill Group in deal valued at $112.7M including $71.4M in borrowings as Big 5 Sporting Goods Corp stockholders to receive $1.45 per share in cash.  WHR shares rose as the appliance retailer was upgraded to Buy at Longbow, with shares moving above its 200dma resistance today.

• In Research, Holcim (HCMLY) was upgraded to Buy with PT CHF65 at Jefferies saying with a meaningful exposure to both a cyclical recovery in European construction and structural growth from decarbonization, JEFF sees Holcim as well-placed to capture upside from these big-picture themes

• In Casinos (MGM, WYNN, LVS, MLCO), note June Macau GGR monthly numbers expected tonight.

• 1) RBC Capital said they continue to view utility-scale solar names (ARRY, FLNC, FSLR, NXT, SHLS) as relatively less impacted from Senate bill given strong energy demand and solar’s relative cost competitiveness; believe this is incrementally more favorable for FSLR due to the change in the integrated component provision. RBC believes the passage of the updated One Big Beautiful Bill in the Senate has mixed implications for solar linked clean energy stocks, while BE should outperform with reintroduction of tax credits for fuel cells. Says language restricting credits for residential solar lease arrangements were removed and has positive implications for ENPH, RUN, and SEDG.
• 2) Citigroup noted the latest version of OBBA released Friday night is somewhat contrary to the ‘worst is behind US’ expectation. The vote is expected to happen today, which means room for potential changes. But, major changes appear unlikely. The bill provides a lifeline to residential solar by allowing leasing. However, the timeline for ITC, PTC, and FEOC was accelerated while a new tax was introduced on violation of material assistance. The bill clarifies that safe harboring is allowed before enactment, which is another positive for solar. While detrimental for the industry, a more restrictive FEOC and escalating 50B penalties are positive for Citi’s top pick FSLR Citi remains negative on residential solar after downgrade to sell in Q1 preview and believe there is room for downside in RUN, ENPH and SEDG
• 3) Jefferies said: The Senate voted 51-49 to advance the OBBB; still aiming to meet the July 4th deadline. Senate’s version of the OBBB has reintroduced the ‘placed in service’ language for projects starting construction after enactment of the bill. 45X stacking eased and excise tax on FEOC introduced beyond IRA phase out. Storage intact. Resi lease and hydrogen make a comeback too. Positive FSLR, RUN, BE, PLUG, FLNC, ORA, & IPPs. Neutral NEE but bad for smaller developers
• 4) Oppenheimer said: Views the updated Senate budget bill released over the weekend as a net negative for utility-scale solar, wind, and US manufacturing, with slight improvement for residential solar via leasing provisions, and in line with expectations for fuel cells, energy storage and geothermal given retained support for these sources. While the White House remains confident in maintaining House support through the reconciliation process, numerous polls including Pew Charitable Trust and The Tarrance Group suggest the legislation could prove highly unpopular with voters and may lead to eroding support in the House. Should the Senate bill pass as written, OPCO sees it as an incremental positive for RUN, in line for BE, ORA, and PLUG and an incremental negative for FSLR, ARRY, SHLS, CSIQ, HASI & CWEN with mixed potential for ENPH and SEDG
• In Energy stocks: YPF shares fell after a U.S. judge ordered Argentina to give up its 51% stake in oil and gas company YPF, to partially satisfy a $16.1B court judgment against the cash-strapped country; NFE shares jumped following a 5-Year LNG contract in Puerto Rico.

• DAVE shares rose after Benchmark earlier raised its PT to a Wall Street high of $320 from $229 and raised ests citing increased conviction regarding the sustainability and resilience of demand for DAVE’s offerings.
• HOOD shares traded up more than 12%, hitting an all-time high at $93.63 in continued upward momentum as the crypto space saw renewed strength led by miners like IREN, CORZ, and RIOT.

• ARGX shares fell following earlier report of Vyvgart Hytrulo inclusion on FDA FAERS update.
• AUPH said its autoimmune drug, aritinercept, significantly reduced antibody levels in the blood of healthy participants, in an early-stage trial; Aritinercept cut antibody levels by up to 55% for IgM, 48% for IgA, and 20% for IgG after 28 days, with effects lasting long enough to support once-monthly dosing.
• BBIO announced it has sold a portion of royalties due to the Company from sales of BEYONTTRA in Europe to HealthCare Royalty and funds managed by Blue Owl Capital for $300M. This royalty financing agreement monetizes select anticipated royalties and provides immediate less-dilutive capital to the Company.
• INMB shares tumbled after reporting key findings from phase 2 mindful trial of XPRO in early Alzheimer’s disease saying the trial did not meet primary cognitive endpoint in mitt population while treatment was well-tolerated and safe in high-risk patients: to schedule end-of-of-phase 2 meeting with FDA in Q4 2025.
• MRNA said its experimental influenza vaccine showed superior efficacy, compared with a licensed standard-dose seasonal flu shots in adults aged 50 years and older in a late-stage study; mRNA-1010, was 27.4% more effective in preventing influenza illness in participants aged 65 ages and older vs. standard dose
• RCKT announced that it has received clearance from the FDA for the company’s investigational new drug application (NDA) for RP-A701, an AAVrh.74-based gene therapy candidate for the treatment of BAG3-associated Dilated Cardiomyopathy.
• REGN was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus saying the company continues to rely heavily on sales of Eylea, which is used for the treatment of wet age-related macular degeneration, diabetic macular edema, and diabetic retinopathy, although sales of this product have been shrinking due to competition.
• UNCY announces receipt of complete response letter for oxylanthanum carbonate for the treatment of hyperphosphatemia in patients with chronic kidney disease on dialysis; the CRL cites deficiencies at third-party manufacturing vendor unrelated to OLC.

• In MedTech: MDT was upgraded to Peer Perform from Underperform at Wolfe Research as sees up/down for the multiple as ~balanced here and one of the reasons for this rating upgrade. If MDT reasonable bull case were to play out, and Wolfe sees 6% not 5% for organic growth, 17x-18x P/E is not offensive.

• JOBY delivers first aircraft to Dubai as air taxi service nears launch; the company delivered its first production air taxis to Dubai, where it hopes to launch the world’s first service in 2026.
• OSIS receives $10M order for cargo and vehicle inspection systems.
• PLTR rebounded after a late day decline Friday on rebalance; in news today, Accenture becomes a preferred partner to deploy Palantir’s AI systems across U.S. federal agencies — starting with supply chain, financial ops & edge-to-enterprise data fusion.
• TDG to buy Simmonds Precision Products from RTX for about $765M.

• In Media: DIS was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies and raise tgt to $144 from $100 as now sees limited risk of a second half of 2025 Parks slowdown from Epic Universe and macro factors and is more positive on FY26 Cruise upside, while also positive on FY26 Cruise upside. FWONA mentioned positively in Barron’s saying it is poised to benefit as racing action heats up at the track and on movie screens.
• In AI: BIDU has said it will make its Ernie generative AI large language model open source on June 30, a threat to OpenAI, Anthropic and its own Chinese rival DeepSeek – CNBC. GOOGL said it has struck a deal to buy power from a project in Virginia fueled by fusion. Google signed what it called the technology’s first direct corporate power purchase agreement with Commonwealth Fusion Systems, a company that spun off from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 2018. AAPL shares jumped late day in reports it is said to weigh powering Siri with Anthropic or OpenAI tech, Apple hasn’t made a final decision, and is still considering its own models, Bloomberg reported. META hit a record after CEO Mark Zuckerberg informed employees on Monday of a major overhaul of the company’s artificial intelligence group.

• ORCL shares outperformed, upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel and raised its price tgt to $250 from $180 saying the recent dramatic step-up in capex and remaining performance obligation (RPO) gains support mgmt Cloud growth expectations and these Cloud gains should generate accelerating revenue increases in coming years. Also, ORCL said it has signed cloud services agreement that is expected to contribute more than $30 billion to annual revenue starting in fiscal year 2028.
• ANSS and SNPS announced statement related to the status of the regulatory approvals for Synopsys’ proposed acquisition of Ansys: “We have already received merger clearance in every jurisdiction other than China based on the merits of our transaction and the significant benefits it is expected to bring to all our stakeholders and the future of technology innovation. We continue to work collaboratively with the State Administration for Market Regulation of China, and we are at an advanced stage in obtaining this final regulatory approval.”
• ZS files to sell $1.5B of convertible senior notes due 2028