Closing Recap

Monday, March 11, 2024

Index	Up/Down	%	Last
DJ Industrials	46.97	0.12%	38,767
S&P 500	-5.74	0.10%	5,118
Nasdaq	-65.84	0.40%	16,021
Russell 2000	-6.76	0.81%	2,065

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. stocks with more of a sideways day, finished in negative territory but off their worst levels heading into key inflation data on Tuesday. The near-term focus remains on macro/inflation/interest rates with earnings season behind us, heading into the February consumer price index (CPI) inflation report tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM. Estimates are for headline CPI M/M to rise +0.4% (vs. last month +0.3%) and on a Y/Y basis to rise +3.1% (in-line with January). The Core CPI reading (ex-food & energy) M/M est. to rise +0.3% (vs. +0.4% in Jan) and to rise +3.7% Y/Y (vs. last month +3.9%). No Fed speakers on the day (or week – in blackout period into Fed meeting next week) and no US economic data. Little bit of rotation within technology as old winners AAPL, TSLA, GOOGL rebounded after underperformance in 2024 while semis (SOX) took a small breather. Industrials (XLI) pulled back from all-time highs of 123.50 on Friday, while Materials (XLB) outperformed. Treasury yields and the dollar managed small gains after declines last week. Lone earnings report of note tonight is Oracle in software space after the bell, but attention on economic data this week. Reminder after the close on Friday 3/15, the S&P, FTSE Russell, and KBW Nasdaq indexes will be quarterly rebalanced. Also increased volatility Friday amid quadruple witching option expiration too. Bespoke invest tweeted: "If the S&P 500 closes red again today, it will be the 6th week in a row with a decline on the first trading day of the week. 3/11: -0.28%, 3/4: -0.12%, 2/26: -0.38%, 2/20: -0.60%, 2/12: -0.09%, 2/5: -0.32%" (it did). Heading into tomorrow, Bespoke also noted "we’ve now gone 86 trading days without even a 2% pullback for the S&P."

• The US Treasury sold $56B in 3-year notes at a yield of 4.256% vs. 4.269% when issued prior with the bid-to-cover at 2.60 (vs. prior 2.58%), as Primary dealers take 14.4% of U.S. 3-year notes sale, direct 15.56% and indirect 70.05%. Treasury yield and the dollar generally little changed into the CPI, though the yen advanced vs. the buck overnight after reports this weekend that a growing number of BOJ policymakers are warming to the idea of ending negative interest rates this month on expectations of hefty pay hikes in this year’s annual wage negotiations.

 

Macro	Up/Down	Last
WTI Crude	-0.08	77.93
Brent	0.13	82.21
Gold	3.10	2,188.60
EUR/USD	-0.0018	1.092
JPY/USD	-0.05	147.02
10-Year Note	0.02	4.108%

 

• In Lodging/Travel: CHH terminated its hostile bid for rival hotel chain WH after failing to gather enough support from the target’s shareholders. The company will also withdraw its nomination of independent director candidates for election at Wyndham’s 2024 annual meeting; CHH board authorized a 5Mm share repurchase plan. CHH was double upgraded to Buy from Underperform at Jefferies citing the ceased efforts to acquire Wyndham Hotels. Hyatt (H) was downgraded from Overweight to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley with the stock rallying 30% in the past 3 months as sees a more balanced risk-reward.
• In Casinos/Gaming: BALY shares jumped after Standard General delivered a non-binding letter to the board of directors of the company proposing a transaction under which it would acquire all the outstanding shares of common stock not currently owned by Standard General at a price of $15.00 per share.

• In Oil Pipelines/MLPs/Equipment: ETRN shares rose after EQT agreed to buy back its former unit ETRN to create an integrated natural gas provider valued at more than $35B; each outstanding ETRN share to be exchanged for 0.3504 shares of EQT stock; representing a value of $12.50 per ETRN share.
• In LTL Trucking: ODFL tgt to $415 from $385 and SAIA to $640 from $560 and XPO tgt to $145 from $125 in LTL Sector at Barclays saying multiples are elevated as stock performance far outpaces estimate revisions, but BARC’s upcycle analysis supports meaningful EPS expansion potential over the next few years, particularly at SAIA and XPO.
• In Shipping: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index was up 35 points or 1.4% to 2,377 points, its highest level in nearly three months. The panamax index rose for a tenth straight session, adding 32 points, or 1.7%, to 1,893 points and The Capesize index gained 69 points, or 1.6%, to 4,314, its highest since Dec. 12.
• In Aerospace & Defense: BA shares stumbled on two stories: the WSJ reported the Justice Department has opened a criminal investigation into the Boeing (BA) 737 MAX blowout on an Alaska Airlines (ALK) flight, citing documents and people familiar with the matter. 2) according to Bloomberg, DAL expects deliveries of its Boeing (BA) 737 Max 10 aircraft could be pushed out to as late as 2027 as the plane maker undergoes federal safety and criminal reviews.
• In Materials/Industrials: CR announced it has signed a definitive agreement with Investcorp Technology Partners Investcorp to acquire OpSec Security OpSec for $270M in cash. In Chemicals: LIN to replace SPLK in the Nasdaq-1oo Index starting March 18th. Gold miners rebound (GDX, NEM, AEM), continues with gold holding near all-time highs.
• In Utilities: UBS downgraded AEP from Neutral to Sell as it sees the timeline for successful regulatory outcomes as long dated and management change uncertainty presents an overhang. UBS believes the valuation discount to peers could widen as AEP works through this transition. They upgraded PNW to Neutral as sees the key catalysts for its Sell call having now played out and believe the stock appears reasonably valued at a 3% discount to peers. XEL was upgraded to Outperform at Wolfe Research as believes can achieve EPS growth near the top-end of its L-T 5-7% annual EPS growth target through 2027 with further upside potential from renewables/ gen investments and was upgraded to Overweight at Barclay’s following sharp underperformance related to the Texas Smokehouse fire.

• FTRE shares fell after forecasts 2024 revenue to be $3.14B-$3.21B as mid-point below consensus $3.2B and reported a Q4 EPS loss of (-$0.41) vs. est. loss (-$0.38); said will sell its enabling services segment and patient access businesses to private equity firm Arsenal Capital Partners for up to $345M.
• LXRX said to resubmit Sotagliflozin NDA by mid-year.
• MLTX held its R&D Day: Key updates according to Cantor included: 1) New P2 PsA (Psoriatic Arthritis) 24-week data for Sonelokimab (SLK, IL-17A/F nanobody), 2) Announcement of new indications for SLK.
• MRNA shares jumped, among leaders in the S&P after Oppenheimer cited the move to a notice on the U.S. clinical trials register that the company, along with MRK, will begin testing their vaccine combination for the treatment of a form of skin cancer called cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (CSCC).
• STAA was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel and raised tgt to $50 from $30 as believes conservative 2024 guidance, US EVO green-shoots, and trough valuation/investor sentiment can allow you to weather these storms.
• VTYX provided several updates, with the company noting its topline (1) Phase 2 data for VTX2735 in CAPS patients established clinical proof of concept with the company planning to evaluate VTX2735 in CV diseases and (2) The company plans to present data on the ongoing Phase 2 OLE portion of its VTX002 study, with at least half of the patients in the 60 mg treat-through group achieving clinical remission or endoscopic remission at week 52.

• In Semiconductors: the sector (SOX) outperformed last week at +2% vs. the S&P500 0% and Nasdaq -1% despite a pullback in NVDA shares on Friday. Markets await NVDA’s GTC conference next week. AMAT boosts its cash dividend by 25% to $0.40 per share. ARM IPO lock-up expiry this week.

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Market commentary provided by Hammerstone Markets, Inc, a firm separate from and not affiliated with Regal Securities. Regal Securities has not participated in the creation of the content, and does not explicitly or implicitly endorse the content.