Closing Recap

Friday, May 09, 2025

Today was one of the quietest/low volume days on Wall Street in weeks, as U.S. stock markets traded sideways most of the day between gains and losses, with investors awaiting the key trade agreement meeting this weekend between U.S. (Bessent and Greer) and Chinese officials in Switzerland. President Donald Trump this morning opened the door to lowering tariffs on China to 80% from 145% ahead of a weekend meeting between U.S. and Chinese officials, but that still seemed high to a few analysts who were looking for a lower rate for trading to likely resume. Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are going into the negotiations “with an open mind,” National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett told reporters later in the morning. The trade talks, after the US/UK agreed on terms with a trade deal yesterday, are all that broader markets appear to care about for the time being after minimal movement following the FOMC and BOE policy meetings this week and lackluster market action today. Earnings have moved the needle for many names, but the broader market remains at the mercy of trade/tariffs and the impact on global economies. Bitcoin topped $103,000, the dollar pared yesterday gains, while oil and gold advanced. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 0.5%, the Dow fell 0.2% and the Nasdaq fell 0.3%.

• Oil prices rose as U.S. crude oil futures settled at $61.02/bbl, rising $1.11, or 1.85%, posting its first weekly gains since mid-April as a U.S. trade deal with United Kingdom turned investors optimistic ahead of talks between top officials from Washington and Beijing. Brent crude rose $1.07 or 1.7% to settle $63.91 per barrel. Week-over-week, both benchmarks rose over 4%.

• Consumer Staples: MNST Q1 sales $1.85B fell short of consensus $1.98B (broad-based weakness across segments/regions), as the company indicated that the shortfall was largely the result of bottler/distributor ordering patterns in the US/EMEA and uncertain macroeconomic conditions; despite the weaker top line, gross margins in Q1 were notably ahead of expectations.
• In Restaurants & Bars: SG shares slipped early after guided FY25 revenue $740M-$760M, below consensus est. $763.7M and guided same-store sales about flat for FY25; DNUT was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Truist after results saying they are “shocked” by the speed at which the story fell apart; TXRH reported disappointing Q1 earnings but same-store sales were slightly better than expected as trends accelerated in April and May, leading to Q2 same-store sales growth tracking better than estimates.

• In Food Delivery: LYFT shares rose after swinging to a Q1 profit and posted higher, boosted by more people using the ride-sharing app; Q1 profit was $2.6M vs. loss of -$31.5M y/y as revs rose 14% y/y to $1.45B and total rides grew 16% y/y while the number of active riders climbed 11%.
• In Casino & Gaming: DKNG reported in-line Q1 EPS on slightly lower sales and cut its year rev outlook to $6.2B-$6.4B from $6.3B-$6.6B and lowered the midpoint of EBITDA guidance to $850M from $950M, but stock bounced as expectations were low following recent FLUT and other OSB results after bad NCAA tourney.
• In the Leisure Sector: TKO delivered another strong Q, outperforming expectations on top- and bottom-line, as diversified revenue streams are bolstered by strategic acquisitions and $40M in cost synergies. Catalysts like UFC media rights renewal, WWE’s Netflix expansion, new boxing promotion, and FIFA World Cup drive growth.
• In Autos: TSLA shares surged, topping $300 per share in a big squeeze higher this morning; NSANY pulls the plug on its +$1 billion EV battery plant.

• Solar stocks enjoying a strong week following improved results/guidance from likes of SEDG, ARRY, SHLS, RUN this week, boosting the rest of the sector (follows recent weaker results from FSLR, ENPH).
• In Transports: for railroads (CSX, NSC, UNP), Total Rail Traffic: U.S. Class I railroads hauled approximately 2,051,258 carloads and intermodal units, up 6.8% or 130,742 units from April 2024. Carloads: Totaled 884,884, a 6.2% increase (approximately 51,671 additional carloads) year-over-year. This marks a rebound from the 6.5% decline seen in April 2024, driven by gains in commodities like coal (up 14.7%), grain (up 13.5%), and chemicals (up 5.8%). Intermodal Units: Reached 1,166,374 containers and trailers, up 7.4% (approximately 80,471 units) from April 2024, marking the ninth consecutive year-over-year monthly gain.
• In Airlines: A technology outage took out radar and communications for Newark Liberty International Airport’s controllers briefly Friday morning, the second such breakdown in two weeks at a heavily trafficked U.S. transit hub. The outage at the Philadelphia air-traffic control facility occurred Friday at 3:55 A.M. Eastern, the Federal Aviation Administration said and lasted for around 90 seconds. Controllers also lost contact with planes and their radar screens went dark because of a technology outage in late April.
• In Metals & Mining: PHX announced it has entered into a definitive agreement with the WhiteHawk Income Corporation to be acquired in an all-cash offering for $4.35 per share in deal valued at $187M; MP reported a wider than expected Q1 EPS loss and flagged that supply shortages from China’s rare earth export controls will likely trigger new partnership agreements and policy support over the next few quarters.
• In Paper & Packaging: PKG was downgraded from Overweight to Equal Weight and IP cut to Underweight from EW at Wells Fargo (cut tgt to $180 from $205) and reduced estimates citing worsening fundamentals in domestic and global containerboard markets, a more balanced risk/reward profile, Greater conviction that IP will not be able to hit its 2025 guide, and valuation bot both.

• In Asset Managers: CNS preliminary assets under management of $87.5B as of April 30, 2025, a decrease of $70M from assets under management of $87.6B at March 31, 2025; VCTR total assets under management (AUM) of $279.3B, other assets of $3.6B, and total client assets of $282.8B, as of April 30, 2025.
• In Business Services: TASK agreed to be taken private by co-founders and Blackstone; as holders to receive $16.50 per share in cash. TOST shares rallied on results as posted a beat for quarter and raised across top and bottom-line financial metrics and the 2025 guidance raise was greater than the Q1 beat.
• In Crypto: Bitcoin prices climbed above $104,000 boosting the entire crypto sector this morning as Ethereum rises over 6% to $2,325; COIN reported Q1 EPS of $1.94, slightly beating Wall Street expectations, but revenue of $2B missed the $2.1B estimate noting Q1 transaction revenue of $1.3 billion fell 19% q/q; Bitcoin miners MARA, CLSK, WULF all active on move in Bitcoin but also after reporting quarterly results.

• APLS was downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James and lowered PT to $52 following Q125 earnings given its impression of added uncertainty associated with quarterly sales volatility. Apellis reported net Syfovre sales of $130.2M, well below consensus $157.5M, citing inventory drawdown.
• IOVA shares tumbled; downgraded to Market Perform at Citizen’s and removed its price target given revised guidance, current cash burn, and uncertainties surrounding the Amtagvi launch. Iovance reported Q1 EPS, missing Street’s est. ($81.6MM), and lowered FY2025 guidance to $250-$300MM (from $450-$475MM).

• In Medical Equipment: TMDX shares jumped after Q1 EPS $0.70 topped est. $0.24; Q1 revs $143.5M vs. est. $123.39M; raising its full year 2025 revenue guidance to be in the range of $565M-$585M, which represents 30% growth at the midpoint compared to the company’s prior year revenue. ILMN posted Q1 EPS beat but cuts FY25 adj EPS view to $4.20-$4.30 from $4.50 (vs. est. $4.46) and said expects FY25 Core Illumina revenue to decline between (1%) and (3%).
• In Healthcare Services: DCGO was downgraded to Neutral from buy at BTIG citing a disappointing Q1 result (Q1 EPS loss -$0.09 on revs $96M missing the $0.03 and $104M estimate) and lower guidance of $300M-$330M in yearly revs, down from prior view $410M-$450M. NTRA Q1 revenue rose 37% y/y to $502M, beating consensus of $446M on better EPS and raised 2025 revenue guidance to $1.940-$2.020M from $1.870-$1.950M prior with strong quarter with 16.5k incremental Signatera units.
• In Distributors: MCK announced (along with earnings results) that it would separate its Med-Surge business, which generated $11.4bn in FY25 sales (+1% yoy) and $773mm in operating profit (7% EBIT margin / 14% of total EBIT before corporate expenses).
• In the Insulin Sector: PODD Q1 results were ahead, with Revenue of $569M (vs. $543M, +4.7% vs. cons), with both US and International Omnipod revs ahead of street; raised its guidance, now expecting Omnipod growth of 20% to 23% (vs. 17% to 21% prior) and slightly raising Gross margins by 50 bps.

• In Telecom Services: GOGO shares rose as EPS $0.09, beat the consensus estimate of $0.05 as revs rose 121% y/y to $230.3M, exceeding the expected $214.93M as service revs rose 143% y/y and reiterated FY25 guidance, projecting revs $870M-$910M, and adjusted EBITDA of $200M-$220M.
• In Internet: PINS shares popped higher after Q1 total revenues above Street and guidance with Q2 outlook above prior expectations driven by continued strong user growth (total MAUs +17mm QoQ) & growing contribution from international monetization; Q1 Adj. EBITDA solidly above expectations & Q2 guidance above prior Street driven by solid topline growth & ongoing expense discipline
• In IT Services & Consulting: NET delivered a strong F1Q25 print, with revenue, operating income, and CFFO/FCF above guidance; posted the largest deal in company history (5-year $130M TCV) and the longest SASE deal in company history (7-year $12.7M TCV) and record number of $1M+ and $5M+ deals. CRWV shares fell after Bloomberg reported CoreWeave is in talks to raise $1.5B in debt by selling high-yield bonds.
• In Software: HUBS shares fell as reported strong Q1 results with revenue and billings exceeding investor expectations; 1Q Revs +18% y/y cc and 1Q Billings +18% y/y cc; announces $500mn buyback; guides 2Q Revs +16% y/y cc; sees FY revs guide reit on cc basis at +16% y/y cc and OMs reit at ~18%.

• NVDA intends to release a downgraded version of its H20 AI chip for China within the next two months, following U.S. export restrictions on its original models, Reuters reported.
• ONTO shares fell on results; Q1 results were largely in line, with advanced nodes revenue surprisingly strong, nearly doubling q/q, but guided for Q2 revenue/earnings to decline, which missed consensus estimate; reported a disappointing quarter with the official announcement of 2.5D share loss to KLAC
• TSM reported a 48.1% YoY and 22.2% MoM increase in April to NT$349.6 billion (~$11.6B), driven by rush orders and growing 3nm and 5nm demand from AI applications.
• WOLF shares fell on results; downgraded at both Citigroup and JP Morgan after the company forecast 2026 revs $850M, below consensus of $958.7M after reporting Q3 revs of $185.4M, in-line with consensus; reported a net loss per share of 72 cents for the third quarter, compared with estimates of a loss of 82 cents a share.
• China’s top chipmaker SMIC warned sales could fall 4-6% this quarter due to production disruptions, vs. prior projections of +8%; comes after Q1 revs +28% noting U.S. clients accounted for 12.6% of its Q1 revs vs. 8.9% in the previous quarter and 14.9% y/y; Q1 profit jumped 162% to $188M but was below the $222.4M estimate.