Closing Recap

Monday, November 03, 2025

U.S. stocks bounced overnight, gave up early gains on the open to turn negative by mid-morning, before another “buy the dip” moment took stocks back to their highs this afternoon as the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has made it a 9^th straight week of closing highs on Monday. NYSE breadth led by decliners over advancers by 1.6:1 margin as only two sectors finished higher (Consumer Discretionary, Technology and Energy) vs. eight sectors closing lower, but the Nasdaq and S&P finished higher as the oversized sector weightings of the Mag 7 mega caps (AMZN, NVDA, TSLA, GOOGL) and their outperformance was enough to keep major averages in the “green” to kick off the week and month. Day 34 of the Federal shutdown today, with no signs of an agreement between Republicans Democrats to reopen the government thus far and tracking for the longest shutdown in history. Today’s headlines were dominated by MA& in the consumer space (KMB/KVUE), gold miners (CDE/NGD) and energy (CIVI/SM), as well as notable AI/Data center power deals with AMZN, CIFR, IREN, ETN all moving on headlines (see below for more details). Tech continues to lead sentiment higher every day.

More than 100 S&P companies are expected to report this week after nearly 35% reported last week – and now well over 300 S&P companies results are out for Q3. Economic data remains light due to the federal shutdown as the Fed/stock markets fly blind with no updates on jobs or inflation data outside of a modestly better CPI report two weeks ago. Increased retail stock buying, the return of corporate buybacks, a continued pickup in M&A, lower interest rates, and depressed bond market volumes have all boosted stocks. Weekend headlines revolved around tech earnings strength, dovish Fed speak from Waller and Miran (following hawkish comments from several officials late last week), and OPEC+ December output increase. Bitcoin prices remain weaker, down about -20K off prior month record highs. Large caps still leading as smaller companies were left behind despite the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq rising last month: S&P 500 Equal Weight, S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600 all closed lower last month: S&P 500 EW 12M rolling return vs. S&P 500 (+2% in early July) dropped to -13% as of last Friday. Note according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, since 1928, the SPX has posted an average overall gain of 1.0% in November…gains were recorded 62% of the time – so stocks on win streaks heading into the best month of the year!

• ISM U.S. manufacturing activity index 48.7 in October below consensus 49.5 and vs 49.1 in September; the prices paid index 58.0 in October down from 61.9 in September; the new orders index 49.4 in October vs 48.9 in September and the employment index 46.0 in October vs 45.3 in September.

• U.S. crude oil futures settle at $61.05/bbl, rising $0.07 or 0.11% while Brent crude settle at $64.89/bbl, rising $0.12 or 0.19%. Front Month Nymex Natural Gas for Dec. delivery gained 14.20 cents per million British thermal units, or 3.44% to $4.2660 per million British thermal units today now up 4 straight days.
• Treasury yields inched lower after the ISM data before rebounding later. Benchmark 10-year yields were last at 4.107%, slightly higher than late last week. Two-year yields were last at 3.6%, about flat with Friday. Further out in the curve, 30-year yields rose instead and were last at 4.693%, nearly two basis points higher. This afternoon the U.S. Treasury cut its Q4 borrowing estimate to $569B, down $21B from July’s forecast, mainly due to a higher starting cash balance. It now expects to end December with $850B in cash. For Q1 2026, Treasury projects $578B in borrowing, also targeting an $850B cash balance.

• TSLA said new car sales in Spain fell (-30.6%) in October from the same month in 2024 to 393 vehicles, registration data released by industry group ANFAC showed on Monday. Between January and October, sales of Tesla cars in Spain increased 7.6% from the same period a year earlier.

• In Food Sector: FRPT reported Q3 sales $288.8M vs. est. $285.8M; Q3 adj EBITDA $54.6M vs. est. $54.3M; Q3 Net Income $101.7M; revises 2025 net sales growth to ~13% from 13%-16% previously; Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 expected between $190M-$195M; BYND delayed its Q3 results to November 11^th (vs.11/4) saying it requires more time to quantify impairment charge related to some of its asset; on Friday announced preliminary quarterly revenue above estimates.

• In Oil Majors: BP said it has agreed to sell interests in its U.S midstream assets to Sixth Street for $1.5 billion, as it continues to look for ways to pay down net debt. The deal includes approximately $1 billion paid upon signing, with the remainder expected by the end of the year, BP said.
• Oil & Gas Equipment: KNOP said it received a buyout offer from Knutsen NYK Offshore Tankers AS for $10 per unit; SM and CIVI entered into an all-stock merger agreement. Under the terms of the Transaction, each common share of Civitas will be exchanged for 1.45 shares of SM Energy common stock. The combined company’s enterprise value of approximately $12.8 billion is inclusive of each company’s net debt. PUMP was upgraded from Neutral to Overweight at Piper noting mgmt announced contracted capacity of >150MW, including 60MW for an AI data center, plus expansion targets of 750MW by YE 2028E and 1GW or greater by 2030E.

• In FinTech: TOST announced partnership with UBER to manage digital ordering operations in U.S. and Canada. As part of partnership, Toast will also make Uber the preferred food delivery marketplace for Toast restaurants globally.
• In Insurance: AON was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup to reflect improved risk/reward citing tailwinds from capital markets activity, the potential for data center projects to remain a positive growth driver, and integration and restructuring efforts mostly in the rear-view window. BRO downgraded from Buy to Neutral at Bank America and cut tgt to $97 from $135 noting shares have generally been declining (down 36% from April 3rd to October 31st) against a broadly appreciating S&P500. Bank America also downgraded MMC from Neutral to Underperform (tgt to $181 from $243 based on a lower outlook for organic growth going forward, with near-term headwinds from softening property rates. Additionally, revises down its EPS forecast due to lower growth.

• ALT announced the completion of patient enrollment in RECLAIM, a Phase 2 clinical trial evaluating pemvidutide in adults with alcohol use disorder (AUD). The trial is evaluating pemvidutide in approximately 100 patients across sites in the U.S. Altimmune expects to announce topline results from the trial in 2026.
• ALVO shares fell after saying the FDA rejected its biologics application for a biosimilar candidate to Johnson & Johnson’s Simponi and cut its 2025 outlook as a result.
• BCRX Q3 operating profit increased 285% y/y, reflecting strong leverage as ORLADEYO Q3 revenue up 37% y/y, driven by strong patient demand while raises FY 2025 ORLADEYO revenue guidance to $590-$600M while lowers FY 2025 non-GAAP operating expenses to $430-$440M.
• BNTX increased full-year revenue guidance to $2.6B-2.8B from prior $1.7B-2.2B euros after it got a boost from a collaboration deal with BMY in Q3; but the company slid to a net loss due to costs of a settlement while lowered its annual expectations for research-and-development expenses, capital expenditure and other costs.
• CRBU shares jumped; said that its off-the-shelf CAR-T therapy induced complete and durable remissions in patients with advanced B-cell lymphoma. The study results, while preliminary, are comparable to benchmarks set by currently approved, patient-specific CAR-T therapies for lymphoma.
• IOVA announced interim data from its registrational Phase 2 IOV-LUN-202 trial of lifileucel monotherapy in patients with previously treated advanced nonsquamous NSCLC without actionable genetic mutations.
• MDGL was upgraded from Underperform to Neutral at Bank America and raise tgt to $445 from $266 noting shares have outperformed of late (since Aug: +47% vs NBI +11%, bolstered by a solid launch and a shift in institutional ownership); yet BAML’s view remains nuanced.
• PHIO shares jumped after safety committee issues favorable review at maximum dose of Intasyl ph-762
• PFE sued MTSR and rival drugmaker NVO to block the Danish company’s rival bid for the obesity startup.
• REPL was upgraded to Market Perform, with $11 tgt at BMO Capital saying cautious they have optimism in the saga to see FDA approval for RP1 in advanced melanoma – believe current levels reflect appropriate risk.
• QURE shares tumble; after announcing the FDA no longer agrees that data from the Phase I/II studies of AMT-130 in comparison to an external control, as per the prespecified protocols and statistical analysis plans shared with the FDA in advance of the analyses, may be adequate to provide the primary evidence in support of a BLA submission (headlines weighed on BHVN shares as well).
• SER announced that the U.S. FDA has placed a clinical hold on the Company’s Investigational New Drug (IND) application for SER-252, Serina’s lead development program for advanced Parkinson’s disease.
• TGTX raises 2025 global revenue target to $600M; raises full year Briumvi U.S. net revenue target to about $585M and authorized an additional $100M share repurchase program.

• In Veterinary sector: IDXX posted Q3 EPS and revs topped consensus while raised its forecasts adjusted annual profit between $12.81-$13.01 above prior view of $12.40-$12.76.
• In Medical Equipment: OMI was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS and cut tgt to $4 from $7 saying though they expect the divestiture to result in a more focused, rightsized organization, there are still some uncertainties and they do not expect EBITDA to grow in 2026 given the Kaiser loss and higher stranded costs.

• In Chemicals: WLK was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Bank America after reported Q3 adj EBITDA of $333M, a miss vs the $375M consensus. Top line performance was similarly in line with BAML’s estimates in building products (HIP), though mix was worse, making it ultimately the primary driver of the earnings shortfall. LIN upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Seaport as believes chemical market demand could be bottoming, and remain encouraged on growth in resilient end markets, particularly electronics.
• In Metals & Mining: in precious metals, CDE announces acquisition of NGD to create a new, all north American senior precious metals producer. Under the deal, shareholders to receive 0.4959 shares of CDE in deal that implies total equity value for Co about $7B valued at $8.51 per share. Coeur stockholders to own 62%, and New Gold holders 38% of company. Reuters reported Activist fund Palliser is pressuring RIO to make a “now or never” counterbid for TECK (from NGLOY) and overhaul its structure as they want RIO to unify listings and spin off base metals arm saying a merger could unlock $800M in synergies.

• In Software: MDB shares jumped after announces CEO Dev Ittycheria to retire after 11 years and names Chirantan "CJ" Desai as CEO while saying they see Q3 above high-end of guidance ranges, driven by continued strength in its Atlas cloud business.
• In Quantum Compute: RGTI was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at B Riley while raising tgt to $42 from $35 saying they believe delayed U.S. government funding authorizations bring sales risk to Rigetti while after a 190% share rally YTD, the stock is pricing in a significant percentage of long-term commercial success.
• In Networking & Equipment: VOD was downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS noting shares are trading at a premium valuation on reported free cash flow yield despite risks from rising fiber competition in Germany. US also upgraded CSCO to Buy from Neutral (tgt to $88 from $74) saying sees a multi-year growth cycle for the company, driven by artificial intelligence infrastructure demand, a large-scale Campus refresh cycle, and momentum in security.

• AMZN said AWS and OpenAI announce multi-year strategic partnership representing $38B commitment, OpenAI will expand compute capacity while benefitting from the price, performance, scale, and security of AWS. OpenAI says accessing AWS compute comprising hundreds of thousands of state-of-the-art Nvidia GPUs.
• CIFR announced ~$5.5b, 15-year lease agreement with AWS to provide turnkey space and power for AI workloads; Cipher will deliver 300MW of capacity in 2026, including both air and liquid cooling to the rack.
• ETN signed an agreement to acquire the Boyd Thermal business of Boyd Corporation from Goldman Sachs Asset Management, paying $9.5 billion to capitalize on heavy demand related to AI data centers. Boyd specializes in liquid cooling tech for data centers which is a key piece of the AI buildout.
• IREN announced it has signed a multi-year GPU cloud services contract with MSFT. Under the agreement, IREN will provide Microsoft with access to NVDA GB300 GPUs over a five-year term, with a total contract value of approximately $9.7B, including a 20% prepayment.
• IREN has also entered into an agreement with DELL to purchase the GPUs and ancillary equipment for approximately $5.8B.
• VRT entered into a deal to acquire PurgeRite from Milton Street Capital for about $1B in cash while the deal has potential additional consideration of up to $250M in cash, based on achieving certain 2026 performance metrics. PurgeRite is a provider of mechanical flushing, purging and filtration services for data centers.

• NVDA will reportedly collaborate w/ South Korea to deploy over 250k Nivida GPUs in South Korea’s sovereign cloud and AI factories to expand the country’s AI infrastructure, the Economic Times reported.
• Separately, the WSJ reported this afternoon that President Donald Trump wanted to discuss a request by NVDA CEO Huang to allow sales of the company’s Blackwell artificial intelligence chips to China with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea, but top officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, told Trump the sales would threaten national security and would boost China’s AI data-center capabilities.
• ON reported quarterly results and guidance posting top and bottom-line beats for Q3, while guided Q4 revs and profit at the midpoint of consensus outlooks.
• Over the weekend, the SIA announced September monthly sales of $78.2B (up 14.0% MoM), well above seasonality of up 8.6% MoM due to strength across the board. Q325 semiconductor sales were up 15.8% QoQ, well above seasonality of up 5.5% QoQ.