Closing Recap

Tuesday, November 04, 2025

Tuesday was a “risk off” day, largely chalked up to valuation concerns following comments out of big bank CEOs in a summit in Hong Kong and market reaction to a beat and raise quarter for Palantir (PLTR) as shares fell following a more than 150% jump this year. Just about every asset class was trading lower today (stocks, crypto, gold, oil) and all intra-day rally attempts were sold in widespread profit-taking. Overnight, Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon said the equity market is likely to see a 10-20% drawdown in next 12 to 24 months. However, added these drawdowns happen often in bull markets and should not be something that changes investors’ fundamental views on capital allocation. Morgan Stanley CEO Pick said markets seem expensive but also pointed out that systematic risk has likely been narrowed and 10-15% drawdowns not driven by some sort of macro event should be welcomed. Treasury prices edged higher on Tuesday as worries over equity valuations fueled weakness in stocks and sent investors into government bonds. The biggest sector laggards today were Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials and Energy as breadth was weak again. The names that have rallied the most during this last few month AI surge saw the biggest declines today. Regarding the government shutdown, now on day 35, President Trump said in a Truth Social post that food assistance benefits for the poor will be given out only when the federal government shutdown ends, again blaming opposition Democrats for the stalemate in Congress. SNAP benefits “will be given only when the Radical Left Democrats open up government, which they can easily do, and not before!” Note over 40 million people rely on SNAP with $8.2B per month in benefits now frozen. Reminder today is election day, do your part! Next up, another barrage of earnings tonight.

• The U.S. dollar extended gains as the euro fell to three-month lows and was down a 5^th straight day as divisions in the Federal Reserve raised doubt about the prospect of another rate cut this year, while a risk-off move sent investors seeking the U.S. currency for safety. The euro fell for the fifth straight session, down 0.3% to $1.148, its weakest since August 1. Against the yen, the dollar was 0.5% lower, though the Japanese currency remained near a recent 8-1/2-month low. Cryptocurrency bitcoin was down over -6% hitting lows just below $100K for the first time since June is a day of “risk-off” trading for investors (after ATH’s were above $126K last month) and Ethereum declined over -11% to $3,155 in a rough day for crypto currencies.

• In Consumer Products: in tobacco, PM said to introduce new U.S., International Business units to enable continued smoke-free progress; in products, CLX maintained its full-year revenue and earnings outlook, saying the disruptions from changes in its operational software were mostly behind it and it is aiming to accelerate profit growth in the second half of the year.
• In Retailers: CPRI posted a Q2 rev beat and announced a $1B share buyback plan but shares slipped after saying expects Q3 gross margin rate to decline about 200 to 250 basis points vs last year due to tariff impact; SHOP Q3 sales rose 32% y/y to $2.84B, ahead of their earlier guidance and topping the $2.76B expected by analysts, while Gross merchandise volume (GMV) also rose 32% to $92.01B though profit came in at $264M, down from $828M y/y; VSCO shares active after BBRC International asks for a board seat for its founder Brett Blundy.
• In Food & Beverages: HRL announces corporate restructuring to support strategic priorities and long-term growth; will reduce 250 corporate and sales positions; TAP shares opened lower initially after Q3 results and guidance but later rebounded.

• In Cruise lines: NCLH shares fell after missing Q3 revenue expectations ($2.94B vs. est. $3.02B) on subdued consumer appetite as consumers curb spending; also guided current quarter adjusted profit per share of $0.27 below consensus of $0.30.
• In Auto sector: rental car company HTZ rises after posting its first profit in two years, with a Q3 adjusted EPS of 12 cents/share, topping consensus of $0.02 and revs of $2.48B beats estimates of $2.4B, thanks to fleet refresh and better utilization; UBER slips after the company posted a miss on Q3 operating income and issued an adjusted earnings forecast for the current period that also fell short of analysts’ estimates.

• Employment Services: UPWK shares jumped after delivered strong 3Q results, with GSV returning to growth and coming in 2% ahead of consensus, while EBITDA exceeded expectations by ~$10M and management expects GSV momentum to persist, with further acceleration anticipated in 2026.
• In REITs: WSR shares rose as MCB Real Estate issued an open letter to all Whitestone REIT shareholders regarding MCB’s proposal to acquire all of the outstanding shares of Whitestone REIT for $15.20 per share in cash.

• EVOK shares jumped as QOL Medical LLC agreed to acquire Evoke Pharma Inc. for $11.00 per share in cash through a tender offer, the companies announced.
• HALO reported Q3 results above consensus estimates and raised 2025 guidance on the top and bottom lines as the beat was driven by stronger-than-anticipated royalty growth, and the midpoint of the new guidance range now reflects y/y royalty growth >50%.
• MTSR receives amended proposal from NVO which values Metsera at $86.20 per share, $10B total, while the MTSR agreement remains In effect.
• PFE reported Q3 revenue of $16.7B, matching analysts’ expectations, and adjusted EPS of $0.87, beating consensus; narrowed its 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $3.00-$3.15 from $2.90-$3.10.
• SRPT shares tumbled after saying two of its approved drugs for a muscle wasting disorder failed in a key study. SRPT was testing its therapies, Amondys 45 and Vyondys 53, in a trial aimed at seeking confirmation of their effectiveness in treating Duchenne muscular dystrophy.
• TERN price tgt raised by several Wall Street firms as early-stage trial of experimental chronic myeloid leukemia drug, TERN-701, showed promising results; TERN says 64% of chronic myeloid leukemia patients achieved major molecular response (MMR) by 24 weeks.
• VRTX Q3 total revenue in line with estimates ($3.1B vs $3.1B est), CF revenue marginally below consensus ($3.04B vs $3.07B est). Mgmt tweaks the bottom end of FY25 total revenue guidance slightly higher.

• HIMS reported strong Q3 results, with both revenue and adj. EBITDA exceeding guidance as subscribers grew 40% y/y, and Hims is also seeing sustained success cross-selling treatments, with multi-condition subscribers up 80% y/y and now representing 20% of total subscribers; guidance was weaker.
• NSP shares fell; Q3 adj EPS ($0.20) vs est $0.22, adj EBITDA $10Mm vs est $29.8Mm on revs $1.623B vs est $1.632B; guides Q4 adj EPS ($0.79) vs est $0.08 and FY adj EPS ($0.16) vs est $2.11.
• WAT among the top gainers in the S&P following earnings and guidance as raised its FY25 revenue view to up 6.5%-7.1% from up 4.5%-6.5% on a better profit outlook.
• ZTS shares fall after Q3 EPS beat and revs just missed; lowers FY25 revenue View to $9.4B-$9.48B from $9.45B-$9.6B and below consensus $9.51B while backs year EPS view.

• In Aerospace & Defense: much talk about PLTR today as shares fell despite a quarterly beat and boosted guidance as attention turned to its valuation after rallying more than 170% this year. News that investor Michale Burry of Scion Asset Management added large “put” contracts on both NVDA and PLTR in 13F filing weighed on shares. BETA opened flat at $34 per share in their NYSE debut, valuing the electric aircraft maker at $7.44 billion. LDOS shares advanced after earnings; KTOS reports tonight.
• In Transports: airlines AAL, DAL, LUV, ALK, UAL tumbled as the Federal Aviation Administration halted traffic at Reagan Washington National Airport after a reported threat against a United Airlines plane. The FAA said operations were halted after a reported security issue and passengers have been taken off the plane, and the aircraft is away from the terminal while authorities investigate.
• In Chemicals: EMN Q3 EPS of $1.14 was just shy of consensus of $1.16 and our $1.15. Overall, we see the print as a positive: strong FCF, 3Q not as bad as feared, 4Q guidance modestly worse than expected, positive initial 2026 bridge, and new recycling contracts. Initial 2026 bridge points to ~$6.75 as buy-side was bracing for ~$6.00. ADM cut its 2025 profit forecast (to $3.25-$3.50 from prior view $4.00) for a third straight quarter on Tuesday as U.S. biofuel policy uncertainty and global trade disruptions pressured oilseed crush margins.

• In Optical & Networking: FN shares rose after Q1 results handily beat consensus Revenue/EPS by +5%/+$0.10, and F2Q guidance was well above consensus +9%/+$0.47 as strength again stemmed from accelerating Telecom (+59% y/y) inclusive of DCI (+92% y/y) likely due to Ciena and Cisco.
• In EMS Sector: SANM the latest name in the sector to outperform post earnings, which beat handily and guided Q1 revs $2.9-3.2B well above the estimate $2.124B and adj EPS $1.95-2.25 vs est $1.65.
• In Communications & Networking: HLIT beat consensus revenue/EPS estimates by 12%/$.07 with both its segments delivering a 2nd consecutive Q of growth; Q3 Comcast and RoW spending was robust, but HLIT guided 4Q down about the size of the 3Q beat due to the expected transition to D4U hardware nodes at Comcast.
• In Semis: AMD, SMCI, SWKS report tonight; ICHR reported 3Q earnings that fell shy of consensus estimates on a reduction in non-semicap revenue, the 4Q outlook was also below expectations, impacted by 3Q semicap pull-in strength, China export restriction, softness outside of etch/deposition and announced CEO departure. NVDA and Deutsche Telekom DTEGY are teaming up to build a $1.2B AI data center near Munich, boosting Germany’s AI capacity by 50%. The facility, set to open in 2026, will use 10,000 Nvidia GPUs, marking a strategic expansion for both companies.