Closing Recap

Monday, November 17, 2025

U.S. stocks were weaker, with ten of the eleven S&P sectors in the “red” led by declines in Technology, Energy and Financials while defensive Utilities rose. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 dropped below their 50-day moving averages twice today, recovering both times before testing it a 3^rd time and failing, leading to the afternoon decline. Coming into today, @charliebilello noted, “The S&P 500 has closed above its 50-day moving average for 198 consecutive days, the 5th longest streak since 1950. Extremely rare to see such a smooth ride higher.” Recall both last Friday (11/14) and the Friday prior (11/7), the SPY and QQQ dropped below that key technical average and both times led to a recovery and subsequent solid rally the remainder of the day. Today was not the case and was most likely the cause of today’s pullback! In addition to the pullback in tech the last few weeks on valuation concerns in AI space, Kalshi markets now show a 56% chance the Fed holds rates in December, with 44% expecting a 25-bps cut. Uncertainty over the Fed’s next move is also weighing on equities. With today’s losses, the QQQ snapped its streak of 10 consecutive positive Monday’s. Bitcoin also falls below $92,000, its lowest in over six months, as riskier assets face broad selloffs and rate cut expectations diminish.

Key events this week include: 1) large cap retail earnings (WMT, TGT, HD, LOW), 2) semiconductor giant NVDA earnings midweek (11/19) which could move the AI/semi sector, 3) the return of some government economic data (including September payrolls data on 11/20) after being delayed for weeks due to the 43 days government shutdown that concluded last Monday, 4) the release of FOMC minutes of the Oct. 28-29 meeting, when Fed Chair Powell was unusually hawkish, 5) several Wall Street conferences on deck that could move specific stocks. Today saw better NY Empire manufacturing data for November and better August Construction Spending data.

In other news, Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson became one of the most bullish voices on US stocks as he predicted a 16% rally for the S&P 500 Index over the next year underpinned by strong corporate earnings. Wilson said he expects the Benchmark to trade around 7,800 points by end-2026. That’s among the highest targets from strategists tracked by Bloomberg and would mean a fourth straight year of double-digit gains for the index. In a sign of continued strength. @bespokeinvest noted, “As of this afternoon, there were 263 stocks in the S&P 500 up year-to-date and 234 down year-to-date.”

Tech concerns remain ahead of NVDA earnings midweek: Note the AI investment market is seeing increased volatility amid concerns of an investment bubble, as shareholders react to minor events. Michael Burry, known for shorting during the financial crisis, sparked worries with his commentary on Big Tech’s accounting practices. Burry’s claims suggest that companies like Nvidia and Palantir are manipulating depreciation expenses, which he estimates could amount to $176B from 2026 to 2028 – Barron’s.

• August Construction spending +0.2% (vs. consensus -0.1%) to $2.169 trln, vs July +0.2% (prev -0.1%); Aug private Construction spending +0.3%, public spending unchanged.
• The BLS continues to warn that more time will be needed to compile it’s reports, and that some data such as GDP and PCE won’t be released until November 26.

• WTI oil futures slipped back below $60/barrel on signs that activity had resumed at a key Russian port and as oil traders surveyed by Bloomberg doubt OPEC+ will cut supply in 2026 despite forecasts of a surplus. U.S. WTI crude oil futures settle at $59.91/bbl, down 18 cents, or 0.30%. Nymex natural gas for December delivery settles down 4.5% at $4.361/mmBtu.
• Japanese yen weakness continues as the euro trades near all-time high vs. the Japanese currency. The dollar index (DXY) rose +0.25% to 99.55, rallying vs. the yen as well while the euro fell back below 1.16 vs. the greenback. Expectations for a December Fed rate cutting are dwindling in recent weeks, leading to a bounce in the US dollar and Treasury yields.

• In Restaurants: YUM was upgraded to Buy from Hold at TD Cowen and raised tgt to $173 from $162 saying they like the likely sale of Pizza Hut amplifying Yum’s growth profile and say the sale should drive best in-class development growth profile within the quick service sector and a clearer focus on Taco Bell comps.
• In Food & Beverages: COCO shares edged higher after saying they expect tariff rates on its products to fall to about 6% from 23% earlier based on current sourcing & product mix. Bank America upgraded COCO noting the White House confirmed Friday an exemption on certain ag products and the firm said this to provide a boost to earnings/sentiment for names within BAML’s coverage including: KDP, SJM, and KHC for Coffee, MKC for spices, HSY for cocoa, DOLE for fruits (bananas/coconut Water).

• Online travel stocks slumped (EXPE, BKNG, ABNB, TRIP) after GOOGL said it is developing an agentic tool for booking flights and hotels. Alphabet’s Google said it is expanding availability for its AI-powered "Flight Deals" tool and is adding new features designed to plan travel with AI, with users now able to organize travel plans with its "Canvas" tool in AI Mode. "Canvas is a tool in AI Mode that gives you a space to organize plans and projects over time. And now, you can use Canvas to build travel plans customized for your specific needs.

• In Utilities: FE said it plans $28B investment through Energize365 between 2025 and 2029; said JCP&L investing $108M to bolster Electric Grid in NJ through 2028; AEP was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies saying data center growth enables earned ROE improvement and argues that the company’s new 7%-9% EPS compound annual growth rate guidance "looks achievable."

• In FinTech: XYZ was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Truist ahead of the Investor Day this Wednesday saying they believe the risk/reward has improved following the recent pullback in the shares (which are down -21% over the past 3 months). The firm continues to worry about credit risk and the outsized growth of their Cash App Borrow offering but believe the underlying momentum of the Square segment is improving.
• In Insurance: CRBG was downgraded to Equal Weight from OW at Morgan Stanley saying while Corbridge’s Q325 results extended a string of outperformance vs consensus on an underlying basis, the firm is incrementally less positive on the go-forward set-up for the company. Jefferies also comments on life insurance space saying they continue to favor the annuity writers, top picks EQH, CRBG and LNC, on their annuity growth thesis and remain constructive on attractive supply / demand dynamics.
• In Consumer Finance: BAC said credit Card charge-off rate was 2.10% in October, a step jump from 1.38% in October end; Citigroup credit card charge-offs 1.95% in October and delinquency rate 1.42% at October end.
• In Crypto: Bitcoin prices were up overnight but sunk throughout the day dropping below $93,000 and pressured shares of HOOD, COIN, MSTR and other crypto-related names. FIGR added to Friday gains post earnings and Mizuho raised its tgt to $56 from $47 saying the company is showing rapid growth, strong margins and operating efficiency – key indicators of scalable and profitable business. FIGR’s total consumer loan volume reached $2.5 billion in Q3, up 70% year-over-year, driven by strong partner channel growth to 246 partners from 168 in S-1 filing. BMNR fell as much as -10% at $31 as Ethereum -1.38% at $3,030.

• JNJ is buying Halda Therapeutics for $3.05B in cash, adding its RIPTAC targeted oncology platform and lead prostate cancer drug HLD-0915, now in Phase 1/2. Deal is expected to close in the coming months and JNJ sees about $0.15 EPS dilution in 2026.
• NUVL said that its next-generation ALK inhibitor, neladalkib, shrank tumors in about a third of patients with ALK-positive lung cancer who had exhausted other targeted treatments — and most of those responses were still holding a year later.
• NVO said it has started selling Wegovy for $349 per month to cash-paying patients, implementing the price cut earlier than scheduled under its agreement with the Trump administration. Most Ozempic doses now carry the same $349 cash price, except the 2 mg dose, which stays at $499.
• SRDX announced the Federal Trade Commission will not appeal a court ruling that denied an injunction preventing the company’s acquisition by GTCR LLC.
• TNXP said its new drug Tonmya, the first treatment for fibromyalgia approved in more than 15 years, is now available by prescription at pharmacies across the U.S.

• HIMS announces $250M share repurchase program authorization.
• LFMD said it will offer a new, lower cash-pay price for GLP-1 medications Wegovy and Ozempic from NVO at $199 per month – the lowest cash pay pricing available nationwide for two fills for new patients.
• MASI: A federal jury in California said on Friday that AAPL owes Medical-monitoring technology company Masimo $634M for infringing a patent covering blood-oxygen Reading technology.
• In Managed care (UNH, HUM, ELV, CNC, CI): The standard Medicare Part B premium will increase to $202.90 per month in 2026, up 9.7% from $185 per month in 2025, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services has announced. Because those monthly premiums are typically deducted directly from Social Security benefit payments, those rates affect just how much of a cost-of-living increase beneficiaries will see in 2026. The Social Security Administration has announced a 2.8% cost-of-living adjustment for 2026 – CNBC.

• In Transports: EXPD was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at UBS because it expects growth in customs / other to offset pressure from lower ocean rates in 2026. UBS also believes the stock does not reflect the potential productivity EXPD could realize from use of technology and process improvement on a multi-year basis.

• On Friday, Army Secretary Dan Driscoll said the Army was reversing past practice and seeking to acquire most of its weapons from startups, not the major Defense contractors that until now have dominated the manufacture of all the country’s armaments.
• In Aerospace: Dubai-based airline Emirates said it was ordering another 65 BA 777-9 jets; Emirates valued the deal for Boeing’s largest in-production jet at $38B; announcement comes at the opening of the Dubai Airshow.

• In Materials/Lithium: ALB, SGML, LAC, SQM shares were higher early as Reuters noted lithium companies climb on 2026 demand growth forecast. Ganfeng Lithium Group Chairman forecast demand growth of 30% or even 40% for the Battery metal in 2026 per Reuters.
• In Chemicals: fertilizer stocks CF, MOS were weaker after the White House drops reciprocal tariffs on fertilizer, other ag products not produced in the U.S. Ag products not grown or produced enough in the U.S.—including coffee, fruit and some fertilizers—are being removed from Trump’s reciprocal tariff list.

• In Semiconductors: all await earnings from NVDA this week (reports Wednesday 11/19 after the close), while memory and flash stocks continue to see strength, with MU, WDC, STX, SNDK extending their year rallies. Piper reiterated their Overweight on MU after management meetings, saying HBM demand remains “robust” with supply expected to stay tight through the rest of 2025 and into 2026, and most HBM3e capacity for 2026 already sold out. Also Rosenblatt raised its MU tgt to $300 on faster memory price inflation.

• In Software: CWAN shares rose after Bloomberg reported Warburg, Permira are in talks to buy Clearwater Analytics https://tinyurl.com/bdhxbchb ; SNOW tgt raised to $310 from $280 at Bank America on healthy demand trends that suggest potential for 3.7% product revenue upside/Q3 Similarweb page views of 25mn grew 8.7%, up +160bps above normal seasonal trends despite a seasonally weaker August. CRM tgt lowered to $305 from $325 ahead of earnings at Bank America saying checks suggest 3Q/4Q demand in holding pattern/better growth coming into view. RBRK was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Mizuho
• In AI/Power/Data Center: GOOGL said it intends to invest $40B in three new data centers in Texas, Bloomberg reported late Friday saying the investment will be made through 2027, with one data center in Armstrong County and two in Haskell County.
• In Quantum Compute: QUBT shares rose following earnings late Friday as reported Q3 net income $2.4M, Q3 operating expenses $10.5M vs. $5.4M Y/y, and Q3 Revs $384K vs. $101K Y/y.
• In Advertising: WPP shares jumped after The Times reported, citing sources, that the British advertising firm has drawn takeover interest from French rival Havas and private equity firms APO and KKR. WPP’s shares have fallen more than 60% year-to-date, giving it a market valuation of about $3.95B. https://tinyurl.com/2knry7v7