Closing Recap

Wednesday, November 19, 2025

U.S. stocks opened firmly higher after yesterday’s losses, then faded all morning (actually turning negative by early afternoon) before a midday bounce/rally snapped the markets 4-day losing streak as investors on Wall Street await earnings from semiconductor giant/face of AI in chips Nvidia (NVDA) after the close. The report could be seen as a near-term “make-or-break” report  for the AI trade that has seen tech stocks slide on high valuation concerns. In less than 24 hours, financial markets will also finally receive the highly anticipated Sept NFP report, originally scheduled for October 3rd. The data is widely expected to show a significant slowdown in job creation, solidifying evidence of a continued cooling trend in the US labor market. The Bloomberg survey consensus forecasts a modest increase of +54,000 jobs added. Stocks slipped to lows/negative territory this afternoon amid more economic data uncertainty after the Bureau of Labor Statistics said it will not publish an October employment report and noted it will incorporate those payrolls figures into the November report which won’t land until Dec. 16 (after the FOMC meeting). Note tomorrow the BLS will release the September jobs data. Sept JOLTS is also cancelled while Oct JOLTS will be published Dec. 9. The fact that the Oct/Nov jobs data will be released AFTER the December Fed rate meeting, kind of puts the rate cut expected at risk. Bitcoin falls below $89,000 for the first time since April 2025, down more than -30% from its record high seen in October.

The FOMC Minutes from the Oct 28-29 meeting showed a divided Federal Reserve cut interest rates last month even as policymakers cautioned that lower borrowing costs could risk undermining the fight to quell inflation that has been above the U.S. central bank’s 2% target for four and a half years. “Many participants were in favor of lowering the target range for the federal funds rate,” the minutes stated, while noting that some members of that group also would have been satisfied with leaving rates steady. Several others opposed the rate cut outright, and “expressed concern that progress toward the Committee’s 2% inflation objective had stalled … while also noting that longer-term inflation expectations could rise should inflation not return to 2% in a timely manner.” The Fed’s rate-setting committee voted 10-2 at the meeting to cut the benchmark interest rate by a q25bps to the 3.75%-4.00% range, with the two dissents unusually split in favor of both tighter and looser monetary policy.

All on NVDA now as, @MoneyRadar_FR noted on “X”, Nvidia now weighs more heavily than the entire country of Japan in the MSCI WORLD ACWI ETF. Nvidia = 4.96%, Japan = 4.63%, Germany + France: 4.76%. Pause. Breathe. Realize the absurdity: A single American chip manufacturer weighs more heavily than: 2225 Japanese companies, the entire German automotive industry, All of French luxury.

• The U.S. trade deficit shrank in August, the Commerce Department said Wednesday, giving a delayed look after the 43 day government shutdown impacted data releases. U.S. imports in August declined to $340.4 billion, a 5.1% drop compared with July, while exports rose by 0.1% to $280.8 billion. That yielded a monthly trade deficit of $59.6 billion, 24% smaller than the $78.2 billion deficit recorded in July.
• US mortgage market index -5.2% to 316.9 in week ended Nov 14 according to the Mortgage bankers Assoc (MBA) as the purchase index falls 2.3%, refinance index falls -7.3% as the average 30-year mortgage rate climbs 3 bps to 6.37% in Nov 14 week.

• December gold prices rose $16.30 or 0.39% to settle at $4,082.80 an ounce (off earlier highs $4,134.30), paring gains as investors digest news the October BLS report will not be released and will instead incorporate those payrolls figures into the November report which won’t Land until Dec. 16 (after the FOMC meeting 12/9-12/10).
• Bitcoin prices slumped all day, hitting yesterday 7 month lows of $89,189 as cryptos are staring down a crucial two-day stretch. Bitcoin was down 3% to $90,202 over the past 24 hours, according to data from CoinDesk. It is now trading about 30% off the record high it hit in early October. Other tokens traded down too. Ethereum, Solana, and XRP were all down over the past 24 hours. Cryptos have slumped in recent weeks, amid a broader selloff in risk assets as investors fret about lofty AI valuations and looming economic data that could lower the chances of the Federal Reserve slashing interest rates in December.

• In Other retail: online retail giant AMZN looked to snap its 5-day losing streak, retracing its gains after its earnings report. TJX reported Q2 EPS/sales above consensus and raised FY26 earnings per share in the range of $4.63 to $4.66 compared to previous forecast of $4.52 to $4.57 and said expects annual comparable sales forecast to be up 4% compared to previous forecast of 3% rise. COST hits 52-week lows, down -18% from 2025 highs and falling for the 9th time in last 11 trading days.
• In Consumer Staples: TAP was downgraded to EW from Overweight at Wells Fargo as believes AB InBev (BUD) offers superior prospects for growth relative to Molson into 2026. IPAR announced initial guidance for fiscal year 2026, expecting earnings per diluted share to be 5% lower than the current 2025 forecast.

• In Furnishing: LZB reported better Q2 results (EPS $0.71/$522.4M vs. est. $0.54/$517.6M, guides Q3 revs in range $525M-$545M vs. est. $534M; sees Q3 adj operating margin to be in 5%-6.5% range; raises quarterly dividend to $0.24.2 from $0.22. WSM reported Q3 EPS beat, a $1B stock buyback on better Q3 comps of +4% and backed its FY25 revenue outlook.

• In Autos, Ride Hailing: DASH was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies saying that the food delivery company’s annual forecast helped lower expectations, providing flexibility for both long-term investments and upside to estimates. ORLY increases share repurchase program by $2.0B; CVNA shares outperformed this morning after reports of third party data tracking to ~40% vs Street at 35%.

• In Solar/Alternative energy: CSIQ shares fell after Mizuho double downgraded to Underperform from Outperform, though raised tgt to $21 from $15, saying the stock’s recent rally reflects a higher growth multiple for its battery storage business and solar multiple expansion, and is overdone. PLUG shares declined after announces private offering of $375 mln convertible bonds (CBs) due 2033 saying they plan to use $243M of net proceeds to fully repay outstanding principal amount of its 15% secured debentures.

• In Investments: BAM is launching a strategy aimed at investing in infrastructure for AI, with NVDA and Kuwait Investment planning to invest in the inaugural fund as founding partners. Brookfield is targeting $10B in equity for its new fund and has already raised $5B of that from investors – WSJ. OWL shares rose after CNBC reported Blue Owl calls off merger of its two private-credit funds after announcement rattles stock, sources say. The firm had planned to merge its smaller, non-traded Blue Owl Capital Corporation II (OBDC II), into the larger, publicly traded fund Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC).
• In Crypto: After a bounce off 7 month lows Tuesday, Bitcoin prices were troubled again today, falling back below the $90K level. Reuters reported that investors pulled roughly $523M from Blackrock’s flagship iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) on Tuesday, according to data from Farside Investors, marking the fund’s largest single-day withdrawal since its launch after Bitcoin fell below $90,000 this week, its lowest level in seven months. BLSH shares slide following earnings results.

• AVDL announces increased offer to acquire AVDL in deal valued up to $22.50 per share and valued at up to $2.37B. Avadel board rejects Lundbeck proposal as Superior. ALKS proposed deal consideration consists of $21.00 in cash and one non-transferable CVR for potential additional cash payment of $1.50/share.
• MDGL tgt raised to $640 (from $580) at Truist due to increased conviction in Rezdiffra’s potential specifically in MASH F4 subtype following data at AASLD. The firm said these data showed substantial efficacy benefit in patients with baseline platelet <100k.
• MRK announces positive topline results from the pivotal phase 3 trial evaluating investigational, once-daily, oral, two-drug, single-tablet regimen of doravirine/islatravir (DOR/ISL) in treatment-naïve adults with hiv-1 infection.
• MRNA said it would now operate full end-to-end manufacturing for its mRNA medicines in the U.S., as they plan to invest more than $140M to add the final manufacturing step to its existing facility in Massachusetts.
• OLMA prices public offering of 10M shares at $19.00 each
• RLMD was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Mizuho noting shares are up >660% YTD due to excitement about NDV-01 — which Relmada in-licensed from Trigone (private) in March 2025, but Mizuho sees significantly more upside.
• TARA reports positive interim Phase 2 data from its STARBORN-1 trial as pediatric patients enrolled; 8 evaluable at 8-week assessment; 7 of 8 achieved clinical success with only one or two injections; one severe case required all four doses and hit a complete response.

• In Medical Research: EXAS shares spiked mid-afternoon after Bloomberg reported ABT was near a deal to acquire the cancer test maker. https://tinyurl.com/5drmf4s3
• In Medtech: MDT was upgraded from Sell to Neutral at Goldman Sachs post 2Q results, as the company’s new product momentum picks up and overall P&L metrics take another step in the right direction. Across all metrics, the most notable to US is the accelerated growth in R&D and SG&A.
• In Animal Health: ELAN was upgraded to Buy from Hold with PT of $25 at Argus after Elanco recently reported third-quarter results that beat the consensus estimates for both revenue and earnings, as both figures rose by a double-digit rate year over year. Meanwhile, Elanco has announced that Credelio Quattro, which only launched in January 2025, has become Elanco’s fastest pet health blockbuster in history.

• In Industrials: WCC was upgraded from Sector Perform to Outperform at RBC Capital following its Q325 beat-and-raise, marking what should be a more predictable earnings Cadence. Outgrowth in datacenter and the inflection in power utility should ease concerns about WESCO’s inherent short-cycle earnings volatility.

• In Lithium sector: SQM reported Q3 adj Ebitda $404.1M vs. est. $402.3M and revs rose 8.9% to $1.17B, from $1.08B y/y; Q3 net income was $178.4M, helped by an improved pricing environment that lifted average lithium prices for the first time in two years vs. $131.4M y/y. LAC was upgraded to Hold from Sell at Canaccord saying they believe the improving outlook for the lithium sector will continue to support equities and suggest investors continue to reassess sector exposure; SGML shares jumped as well.
• Rare Earth sector: MP shares rallied after saying it will form a rare earth refining joint venture in Saudi Arabia with the U.S. Department of War and the state-owned Saudi Arabian Mining Company; facility will be designed to process rare earth feedstock sourced from Saudi Arabia and other regions. Goldman Sachs initiates coverage on MP with a Buy rating and a $77 tgt, the largest rare earth producer in the Western Hemisphere, with a primary focus on neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide, which is a key component for making permanent (NdFeB) magnets used in electronics, EVs, defense systems and more, which are critical to key components of US manufacturing. Also initiated METC at Sell and $16 tgt (20% downside) as believes needs to derisk from Brook Mine to warrant its current valuation.

• In Software: ADBE agreed to acquire SEMR, a software platform that helps businesses run better search-engine optimization as reliance on artificial intelligence increases in $1.9B deal were Semrush holders will receive $12 per share, a 77% premium to prior day (news confirmed earlier WSJ report). Unity (U) shares rallied after announcing it is working with Epic Games to bring Unity games into Fortnite, creating more opportunity and value for players and developers. Developers will have the ability to publish Unity games into Fortnite, which has more than 500 million registered accounts (RBLX shares fell in reaction).
• Data Centers/Infrastructure Technology: NBIS was initiated at Outperform PT $175 at Citizens saying with the recently announced ~$17.4B+ contract to provide MSFT with GPUaaS, along with the ~$3.0B META contract, believe it is clear that prior affiliations are just that, and that the company is well positioned to become a significant provider of AI-based services to enterprises beyond just large-scale customers. CIFR was initiated Outperform and $30 tgt, a former bitcoin mining company that had refocused its attention on attempting to maximize the potential for a 3.8 GW power capacity pipeline. Citizens also initiated RIOT at Outperform and $25 PT, IREN Outperform and $80 tgt and WYFI OP and $37 tgt – five companies previously in Bitcoin mining, which have determined that providing space and a critically scarce power supply for HPC/AI, and the deployment of GPU clusters represents an oppty to unlock significant value.
• In Semiconductors: Elon Musk and Jensen Huang announce that xAI and Saudi Arabia are working on a 500 megawatt project with NVDA Jensen Huang says Nvidia is working with Saudi Arabia to build "supercomputers." The comments come ahead of NVDA earnings tonight. AVGO introduces the world’s first quantum-safe Gen 8 128G San switch portfolio. ON announced a $6B share repurchase authorization over the next three years; doubles the prior $3B auth. AMD, CSCO, and Saudi Arabian artificial Intelligence startup Humain are forming a Joint venture to build data Centers in the Middle East and have landed their first customer, CEOs at the three companies told Reuters in an interview on Tuesday. Reuters reported U.S. officials are privately signaling that the long-promised semiconductor tariffs may be delayed. According to multiple people familiar with the discussions, the administration is moving cautiously to avoid triggering a trade fight with China and risking access to critical rare earth minerals.
• In Media: the WSJ reported late day that Major League Baseball has completed new three-year (’26-’28) media rights agreements with DIS ESPN, CMCSA’s NBCUniversal and NFLX, the league is set to announce Wednesday. Disney’s ESPN will pay around $550M a year for a broad deal including the rights to sell and distribute the league’s out-of-market streaming service MLB.TV. NBCUniversal, owned by Comcast, will pay around $200M a year for Sunday Night Baseball on NBC and all four Wild Card series of the postseason. Netflix will pay around $50M a year for rights to air a single game on the season’s opening night, as well as the Home Run Derby and the annual "MLB at Field of Dreams" game. – WSJ
• In Infrastructure Software: GTLB was downgraded to Hold from Buy and tgt cut to $44 from $55 at Truist and lowered price tgts for DT, ESTC and PD saying Ai and machine labor are forcing software vendors to shift towards a consumption mindset across Data Management, DevOps, and Observability. Truist sees NOW, FROG, and SNOW as companies at various points of consumption adoption poised to succeed.
• Tech Equipment: NOK shares fell after now targets to grow their annual comparable operating profit to a range of 2.7 billion euros and 3.2 billion euros ($3.1 billion and $3.7 billion) by 2028, up as much as 60% from 2 billion euros in the last year; announces new strategy will focus on five strategic priorities.