Closing Recap

Thursday, November 20, 2025

The market received an early holiday gift and US equity futures enjoyed solid overnight gains. Thank you NVDA earnings/commentary. Better earnings and solid guidance from WMT this morning also helped reinforce early strength. Markets held strong gains on a mixed bag of economic data as unemployment ticked higher but nonfarm payrolls for September came in better. Though expectations for another Fed cut in December remain muted, traders overall added to odds of future cuts. In sentiment this morning, the AAII bull-bear spread saw bulls rise from 31.6% to 32.6%, while bears fell from 49.1% to 43.6%. The overall spread moved from -17.5% to -11%. The Fear & Greed Index also improved, climbing to 18/100 (still Extreme Fear) from 14 yesterday but still down versus last week’s 34 (Fear) and last month’s 28 (Fear). Early breadth favored advancers by almost 5:1 in a broad advance as small caps outperform with IWM (+1.86%) versus SPY (+1.58%) and QQQ (+1.85%). Technology (+1.93%), Consumer Discretionary (+1.64%) and Energy (+1.20%) were early outperformers among S&P sector ETFs, while Materials (+0.83%), Real Estate (+0.81%) and Health Care (+0.16%) led the underperformers (no decliners) with all 11 sectors gaining. Then around 10:45, selling began…and never ended

In data of note today, for jobs watchers, @charliebilello noted jobs growth was +0.8% yr/yr, the slowest since 2021 and over the past 50 years, growth of +0.8% or less has preceded recession and a jump in the unemployment rate 100% of the time. The last five times were: March 2020 (recession began in Mar 2020), December 2007 (recession began in Jan 2008), March 2001 (recession began in Apr 2001), October 1990 (recession began in Aug 1990) and November 1981 (recession began in Aug 1981). For VIX watchers, @DataTrekMB noted buying the S&P 500 when the VIX closes between 27.3 & 50.8 (the range from +1 to 4 standard deviations above the mean) has a good track record of delivering solid gains over the following month, 3 months, 6 months, and year. Win rates for these periods are all over 70%.

By midday, US equities had rolled and were solidly in the red by early afternoon. But, in one last interesting data item for the day, @RyanDetrick reminded that the S&P 500 has only peaked in October six times in the past 75 years, so all is not lost. Well, not for the remainder of the year anyway. Heading into the final hour of trading today, though, stocks were off the lows but remained strongly negative. By days end, it was a more than 1,000 move off the highs for the Nasdaq closing at the lows and more than 235 point move off the highs for the S&P 500 as both the SPY and QQQ, approached their 100dma supports after breaching their 50dma this morning. The CBOE Volatility index (VIX) also posted its highest close since April.

• Philadelphia Fed business conditions November fell -1.7 vs. consensus +2.0 and improved from October -12.8; the prices paid index November 56.1 vs October 49.2; new orders index November -8.6 vs October 18.2; the employment index November 6.0 vs October 4.6; six-month capital expenditures outlook November 26.7 vs October 25.2 and six-month business conditions November 49.6 vs October 36.2.
• Weekly Jobless Claims were 220,000 in latest week vs. est. 230,000 and continued claims were 1.974M Nov 8 week vs. consensus 1.951M.
• Oct Existing Home Sales rose 1.2% m/m to 4.10M unit rate vs. consensus 4.08M and vs Sept 4.05M (prev 4.06M); Oct inventory of homes for sale 1.52M units, 4.4 months’ worth and Oct National median home price for existing homes $415,200, +2.1% from Oct 2024.

• January WTI crude futures enjoyed overnight gains but faded as the morning progressed, before taking a quick dip into negative territory following headlines indicating Zelensky agreed to work on the US draft plan to end the war. No doubt investors anticipating the Fed to be on hold in December and concerns over jobs and consumers’ economic health also played roles in the softness. Futures settled -$0.25/bbl, or -0.42%, at $59.00.

• Apparel/Specialty Retail: BBWI reported a drop in sales and earnings and slashed its forecast for the year as CEO cited a strategy pursued by former mgmt that neglected its most-popular categories in pursuit of new avenues of growth. BBWI Q3 adj EPS $0.35/$1.59B missed the $0.39/$1.63B consensus and revised FY25 net sales guidance from 1.5%-2.7% growth to a decline of low single digits; Swiss watch exports fell by -4.4% in Oct’25 vs. a -3.1% decline in Sep’25; CATO and SCVL shares also active post earnings results.
• In Restaurants: JACK reported Q4 system comps down -7.4%, below the -6.0% Street mean and adjusted EBITDA of $45.6M was only modestly below its $46.5M estimate – while trends have likely improved slightly from FQ4 lows, management indicated FQ1 comps will "remain challenged."
• In Consumer Products: ODD shares jumped after reported a top- and bottom-line beat with revs topping consensus by ~1.5% and adj. EBITDA beating by ~6% while Q4 revenue guide was slightly above consensus and its 4Q adj. EBITDA guide was in line; also modestly raised its FY25 guide. BRBR announces new share repurchase authorization of $600M.
• In Consumer Services: BV shares declined after Q4 missed expectations on revenue and EPS and landscape maintenance and development revenues declined due to weaker contract activity and project delays.

• In Insurance: insurance brokers MMC was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays, while AJG was downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight and AON downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight as the firm reduced organic growth estimates across the board for the insurance brokers. Lower organic growth projections and pricing assumptions are driven by weaker-than-expected market data/increased competition.
• In Private Equity: APO upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley on scope for growth reacceleration in 2026/2027, supportive of multiple uplift after recent years’ deceleration; see APO as an attractive way to play private credit given healthy macro backdrop, benign credit conditions, and increased demand for new issuances.
• Brokers & Exchanges: NDAQ was upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley on cyclical and secular tailwinds driving execution momentum that should catalyze a Re-rating towards info services comps; said case for premium valuation underpinned by management execution, secular tailwinds, synergies from acquired high quality businesses in fast-growing end markets. MKTX was downgraded to EW at Morgan Stanley on a potentially benign credit outlook that could weigh on secondary trading volumes into ’26 and sees a slower revenue and earnings growth profile of 8% and 9% CAGR over the next 2 years
• In FinTech: JKHY was upgraded from Market Perform to Strong Buy at Raymond James with a $198 target price saying they see the combination of potential upside to near-term estimates and a meaningful share gain opportunity driven by a major competitor’s Core consolidation over the mid-term as two compelling catalysts.

• MRNA announces $1,5B private credit loan from Ares. Mgmt expects up to 10% rev growth in 2026 and is still targeting to achieve cash breakeven in 2028. 2026 cash costs $4.2B. 2027 cash costs $3.5B – $3.9B; reiterates 2025 financial guidance provided on 3Q25 earnings call.
• MRK said a late-stage study of its proposed oral doravirine/islatravir regimen met its key goals in adults with HIV-1 infection who haven’t previously taken antiretroviral treatments; also met its primary safety objective as they plan to submit applications including the new data to health authorities.
• NUVL announces FDA Acceptance of new drug application for zidesamtinib for the treatment of TKI pre-treated patients with advanced ros1-positive NSCLC; FDA assigns PDUFA target action date of September 18, 2026.
• REGN announced that the FDA has approved Eylea HD Injection 8 mg for the treatment of patients with macular edema following retinal vein occlusion with up to every 8-week dosing after an initial monthly dosing period.
• Vaccine names active (MRNA, PFE, BNRX, NVAX, SNY, GSK) after the WSJ reported a CDC webpage now states that studies have not ruled out the possibility that infant vaccines cause autism, revising its previous stance. The revised webpage suggests aluminum adjuvants could contribute to autism and argues previous CDC assurances violated the Data Quality Act.

• In Transports: ZIM narrowed its adjusted Ebitda forecast for the full year. ZTO Q3 adjusted EPS RMB3.06 vs. consensus RMB2.51 and Q3 revenue RMB11.86B, vs. consensus RMB11.91B; for Q3, grew volume by 9.8% to reach 9.6 billion parcels and we delivered 2.51 billion adjusted net income which increased 5%; sees 2025 parcel volume to grow 12.3%-13.8%. In airlines, Barclay’s projects 4% net seat growth for US narrowbody airlines in 2026, led by UAL, DAL, AAL and LUV Aircraft deliveries are expected to drive mid-single digit domestic seat growth in 2026 and 2027, despite recent constraints like Boeing delays and engine groundings.
• In Aerospace & Defense: WWD announces $1.8B share repurchase authorization; RKLB announced the launch of its next Electron mission is scheduled to take place from Rocket Lab Launch Complex 1 in New Zealand – less than 48 hours after the successful launch of an earlier mission from Rocket Lab Launch Complex 2 in Virginia. Saudia Group, one of the largest aviation conglomerates in the MENA region, has announced a strategic agreement with GE to equip Saudia, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s national flag carrier, with GEnx-1B engines for its 2023 order of 39 Boeing 787-9 and 787-10 aircraft. CNBC reported that JOBY accuses air taxi rival ACHR of using stolen information to ‘one-up’ deal.

• Derivative call moves: Stifel said believe overall networking complexity and demand will continue to intensify for related networking companies, thereby driving revenues. We believe NVDA’s results could have a positive NT impact on networking-oriented companies (ALAB, CRDO, MRVL, and to a lesser extent, MXL), and the LT outlook remains positive. More broadly, we view today’s results as potentially positive for other AI data center-exposed businesses, including MTSI, SMTC and SITM as well.
• Data Center/Infrastructure stocks such as APLD, CRWV, CIFR, NBIS, IREN, SMCI, VRT, ETN, saw strength overnight and this morning after NVDA data center segment revs at $51.2B, above estimates of $48.62B before sliding with the broad based tech sell off late morning. In news, CIFR announces a 10-year high-performance Computing (HPC) colocation agreement with Fluidstack, a Premier Ai Cloud platform that builds and operates HPC clusters for some of the world’s largest companies as transaction secures $830m in contracted revenue over initial 10-year term. Google expands backstop of Fluidstack’s obligations by additional $333m, increasing total backstop to $1.73B.
• In Media: NFLX has informed WBD mgmt that it would continue releasing the studio’s films in theaters if its acquisition of the company succeeds, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday. Warner Bros.’ existing theatrical release contracts would be honored, the report said, citing sources familiar with the matter. In earnings, WMG Q4 revenue reaches all-time high, beating analyst expectations while adjusted OIBDA for Q4 increased 15% y/y and net income for Q4 rises to $109M from $48M y/y.

• In Quantum: IBM and CSCO announce plans to build a Network of large-scale, fault-tolerant Quantum computers targeted by late 2030s. The companies plan to deliver an initial demonstration of multiple networked Quantum computers within five years. Additionally, will work to solve fundamental challenges towards a Quantum Computing Internet.
• IT Services & Consulting: GLOB was downgraded to Hold from Buy saying Organic growth has lagged peers due to the company’s greater exposure to underperforming regions and Verticals.
• In Software: CRNC shares surge on results as Q4 EPS loss (-$0.31) vs. est. loss (-$0.22); Q4 revs $60.64M vs. est. $55.3M; sees FY26 revenue $300M-$320M, vs. consensus $258.38M and FY26 adjusted EBITDA $50M-$70M.
• In Other semis: group got a big bounce thanks in part to NVDA beat and raise quarter, lifting chip makers across the board; in other earnings, KLIC Q4 EPS $0.28 vs. est. $0.22; Q4 revs $177.6M vs. est. $169.84M; sees Q1 EPS $0.33 plus/minus -20% vs. est. $0.23 and revs $180M-$200M vs. est. $166.76M; said global operations and supply chain teams are preparing for increased customer demand over coming quarters.