Closing Recap

Friday, November 25, 2022

Equity Market Recap

·     As expected, markets were very quiet after the Thanksgiving Day holiday on light volume and narrow trading ranges. Today may have been quiet, with little to no major news, economic data or Fed speakers on the holiday shortened trading session…but there is plenty for investors to chew on for next week including a healthy dose of economic data with inflation data points including PCE, ISM Manufacturing and jobs reports from the BLS and ADP. The Dollar Index rises after settling at its lowest value since Aug. 17 a day earlier, oil prices fell and yields steady.

·     The Nasdaq slipped on Friday but is up over 9% from the October low (and 2.2% for Nov), while strength in industrials and materials are best sectors in November. Bespoke Investment noted the Dow is now 9% above its 50-DMA — the most extended it has been since June 2020 in the early days of the post-COVID bull. Has only been above 9% during seven other periods since 1990. Big news today came out of China after reporting record high Covid cases as Zhengzhou, the home to Apple supplier Foxconn’s iPhone manufacturing site, announced a five-day lockdown starting from today – shares of Apple (AAPL) declined on the headlines/

Commodities, Currencies & Treasuries

·     Oil slipped, with WTI crude around $76.75 per barrel, down over 2% for a 3^rd straight week of declines heading into December 4^th OPEC meeting. Note markets remain focused on the price cap that the U.S., the European Union, and their allies plan to impose on Russian crude on Dec. 5. The dollar index (DXY) +0.15% at 106, snapping 3-day losing streak where the British Pound moved back above $1.20 on Wednesday (well off Sept record low $1.0327), while the Euro moves around $1.04 (off its 52-week lows 0.9537). Gold prices slipped as the U.S. dollar regained ground ahead of Fed Beige Book next week, nonfarm payrolls and several inflation data points. Treasury yields bounced off earlier lows (10-yr 3.65%) to 3.71%.

Sector, Stock News Breakdown

·     Retailers: Adobe says consumers spent a record $5.29 bln on Thanksgiving Day (Nov. 24) per Adobe analytics data, up 2.9% YoY; says on Thanksgiving Day, buy now pay later (BNPL) revenue online was up 1.3%, and orders were up 0.7%; expects Cyber week to generate $34.8 bln in online spend, up 2.8% YoY, and represent 16.3% share of the full Nov-Dec holiday season; says mobile shopping drove 55% of online sales (up 8.3% YoY) on Thanksgiving day

·     Auto sector: Ford (F) is recalling 634,000 sport utility vehicles, SUVs, worldwide over fire risks related to a possibly cracked fuel injector and intends to urge owners to have their cars inspected; TSLA to recall 67,698 units of imported Model S, Model X in China, Chinese Regulator said, Dow Jones reported; to Recall 2,736 units of imported Model 3 in China, and recall 10,127 units of domestically made Model 3 in China

·     FinTech & Payments: Mizuho raised ADP tgt to $276 from $257, cut FIS from $105 to $90 following recent earnings saying they remain very upbeat about ADP following strong results, and are slightly raising our medium-term EPS while reducing FIS ests; Visa (V) disclosed November U.S. payments volume on a year-over-year basis was up 9%. Credit grew 10% and Debit grew 8%. Compared to 2019, November U.S. payments volume was 147%, Credit at 138%, Debit at 157%; LU was downgraded at both JPMorgan and Credit Suisse after earnings

·     Pharma & Biotech movers: SPPI said the FDA rejected its new drug application for its experimental treatment for metastatic non-small cell lung cancer; said that it will de-prioritize program activities for the drug, called poziotinib, and accelerate cost cutting, including reducing its research-and-development workforce by about 75%

·     Transports: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index was up this week, hitting a seven-week peak. The overall index, which factors in rates for Capesize, Panamax and Supramax shipping vessels carrying dry bulk commodities, jumped 82 points, or about 6.6%, to 1,324 on Friday and gained 11.4% this week, its highest since early October

·     Metals, Industrials & Machinery: GNRC was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus saying from a technical standpoint, the shares have been in a bearish pattern of lower lows and lower highs since October 2021; industrials (XLI) overall continue their strong November return, but ongoing weakness in transports as well helping; in housing, Bank America said it expects 2023 to be the most challenging year for UK house builders since the 2008 global financial crisis; firm downgraded Taylor Wimpey (TWDOF) to underperform from buy, and downgrades Redrow (RDWWF) and Persimmon (PSMMY) to neutral from buy earlier; lithium names LAC, ALB, SQM, LTHM underperformed in materials

·     Software, Hardware, Components & Services: AAPL shares active after Reuters reported production of Apple Inc’s iPhones could slump by at least 30% at Foxconn’s factory in China’s city of Zhengzhou after worker unrest disrupted operations; COUP shares rose after Bloomberg News reported Vista Equity Partners is exploring an acquisition; ATVI shares slip after a report that the US FTC is likely to file an antitrust lawsuit to block MSFT’s $69 bln takeover bid, Politico reported; in China tech space, shares of US listed stocks BABA, BIDU fall on rising Covid cases in country