Closing Recap

Friday, September 12, 2025

U.S. stocks did a lot of nothing on Friday, as the S&P 500 index was flat most of the day (hit 6,600 for the first time, before a late day roll and then bounce), though the Nasdaq Comp edged higher all afternoon behind strength in TSLA for a second day, MSFT, AAPL and semi stocks, as Wall Street posted another week of gains. After outperformance on Thursday, Smallcap stocks slipped with the Russell 2000 index underperforming. We are heading into the September 16-17 FOMC policy meeting where there is a 95% chance of a 25-bps cut on the table, with a 5% chance of a larger 50-bps rate cut in the fed funds target that has been at 4.25%-4.5% since December. While major averages are at highs, also noteworthy is the general weak seasonality for the back-end half of September (normally one of the weaker time periods of the year). We are in strange times with a 35% rally for the S&P 500 off the April lows, where stocks are now at all-time highs, Bitcoin not far from record highs, gold at all-time highs, money supply at all-time highs, national debt at all time highs, CPI inflation at 4% (double the 2% Fed mandate) and housing prices still near highs…all while the Fed is expected to cut rates and begin a new easing cycle next week. Recent data showing a jump in jobless claims, alongside soft non-farm payrolls and revisions that cut -911,000 jobs from the past year, point to cooling momentum in the economy – hence the growing prospects of rate cuts coming. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.59%, the Nasdaq +2.03%, and the Dow climbed +0.95%.

One of the main stories today in an otherwise boring trading day was the IPO market with several deal pricings today after a busy week overall. Today alone, Gemini (GEMI), a crypto exchange controlled by the Winklevoss twins, opened up 32% at $37.01 after its 15.2M share IPO priced at $28, giving the company a market value of more than $4 billion. It follows crypto exchange/stablecoin IPOs in recent weeks Bullish (BLSH), Circle (CRCL) and Figma (FIG) which have all retreated from their early highs after their IPOs. Also, this week was Klarna (KLAR), a buy-now-pay-later company, which sold more than 10% of its offering to retail investors with 34.1M shares opening at $52 after pricing at $40. Other IPOs today were Black Rock Coffee Bar (BRCB) 14.7M share IPO opening at $26 after pricing at $20, Via Transportation (VIA) opened at $44 after 10.71M shares priced at $46 and Legence (LGN) opened at $28 after IPO price $27.

• University of Michigan surveys of consumers 1-year inflation outlook prelim Sept 4.8% vs final Aug 4.8% and University of Michigan surveys of consumers 5-year inflation outlook prelim Sept 3.9% vs final Aug 3.5%.

• U.S. WTI crude oil futures settle at $62.69/bbl, up $0.32, or 0.51% while Brent crude rose $0.62 or 0.93% to settle at $66.99 per barrel. Oil prices rose after a Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian port suspended loadings, outweighing pressure from oversupply concerns and weaker U.S. demand risks.
• The U.S. Treasury yield curve steepened a bit on Friday as the 10-year yield rose after the previous session’s level fell below 4% for the first time since April, as investors digested weak data that opens the door next week to the first easing in nine months. The 10-yr yield was up 5bps to 4.058%, 30-yr +2.7bps to 4.67%.

• In Food Sector: Ocado (OCDGF) shares fall overseas after US partner KR Chairman and interim CEO Ron Sargent said the company was conducting a “site-by-site” review of its automated fulfilment network, built in partnership with Ocado. SJM was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus noting Smucker recently reported fiscal Q126 results that missed consensus expectations and Argus believes valuations are reasonable given the inflationary environment, consumer caution, and green coffee pressures.
• In Retailers: consumer retail names were weak, LULU, KSS, AEO, ANF, GAP falling all 3% or worse as Jefferies noted this morning an update on inventory dynamics across their consumer discretionary coverage saying inventories remained elevated in Q2 (+2.9% on avg), marking the 4th consecutive Q of growth and raising markdown concerns should demand soften. That said, the inventory growth to sales spread came down to -17bps from Q1’s +256bps, led by Discount Retail (-131bps) though widening spreads persisted in Athletic Apparel (+191bps), Specialty Apparel (+495bps) and Footwear (+1,252bps).

• In Home Improvement Retail: Jefferies noted yesterday, the Fed reported a +9.2% rise in HELOCs to $420B, the highest Y/Y gain since Q208. Jefferies continue to stress that 40% of all drawn HELOCs are allocated to home improvement spend (HD, LOW). Jefferies believe lower HELOC rates, in combination with record levels of home equity, are contributing to increased home equity extractions.

• In Theme Parks: FUN shares jumped after reporting strong attendance growth and season pass unit sales through labor day weekend; reaffirms 2025 guidance; said revenues for nine-week period ended Aug. 31, 2025, totaled approximately $1.1B; said demand is accelerating, with strong momentum heading into popular Halloween and holiday seasons.
• In Gaming/Prediction markets: The Information reported that Prediction startup Polymarket fields offer for $9 billion valuation; Kalshi nears $5 billion financing https://tinyurl.com/yahpf2wn

• In Energy: NEXT was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley and cut tgt to $10 from $15 after reaching a final investment decision on Train 4 of its Rio Grande project and reiterated expectations for a decision on Train 5 in Q4. U.S. energy firms this week added oil and natural gas rigs for a second week in a row for the first time since April, energy services firm Baker Hughes (BKR) said. The oil and gas rig count rose by two to 539 in the week to September 12. Baker Hughes said oil rigs rose by two to 416 this week, their highest since July, while gas rigs held steady at 118.
• In Transports: in airlines, ALK was upgraded to Buy at UBS and is 11/16% above cons. on 26/’27 EPS as it doesn’t think cons. estimates fully reflect the potential contribution from ALK’s initiatives going forward. A deeper analysis into ALK’s key drivers of premium seat expansion to 29% from 27%, loyalty growth, and global expansion, among others, gives US more confidence in its long-term earnings power.
• In Chemicals: Mizuho downgraded three specialty chemical names, cutting TROX to Underperform from Neutral as believes the recent ~55% increase in the stock price since reporting last quarter and cutting dividend is unwarranted, and stock could retest prior downside. The firm downgraded HUN to Underperform from Neutral and cut PT to $9 from $11 noting it could retest lows, or lower given fundamentals have not improved. Lastly, Mizuho cut OEC to Underperform as believes the stock bounce reflects hope that U.S. tire imports would decline, but they rose again in recently reported July data. Separately, APD was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus saying the n-t environment has been challenging with industrial demand weakness and high input costs, but conditions are beginning to change.

• In Crypto: Gemini (GEMI) 15.2M share IPO (down from 16.67M shares), opened at $37.01 after priced at $28.00 (range was $24 – $26 (up from $17-$19); strength in Bitcoin and Ethereum this week, rising above $115,000 and $4,550 today and breaking above recent trading range of $110K-$111K for Bitcoin. Tether, the creator of the world’s largest stablecoin, plans to launch a U.S.-based stablecoin designed for U.S. residents called USAT, the company’s CEO Paolo Ardoino said on Friday.
• In REITs: SLG was upgraded to Buy and VNO upgraded to Neutral at Citigroup as they believe that the strength of the New York office market and improving NY office transaction environment will drive performance vs office peers. In addition, the recent underperformance driven by headline risks associated with the NYC mayoral race provide an opportunity in Citi’s view. Separately Citi upgraded AKR to Buy, underpinned by the stock’s attractive valuation given a premium internal growth profile (5–10% annual SSNOI growth) and KRG was downgraded to Neutral given fewer near-term company-specific catalysts

• Vaccine names tumbled (MRNA, PFE, BNTX, NVAX) after the Washington Post reported Trump health officials plan to link coronavirus vaccines to the deaths of 25 children as they consider limiting which Americans should get the shots, according to four people familiar with the situation who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe confidential information. https://tinyurl.com/3fs5ydh7

• In AI/Data Center: MSFT avoided a possible hefty EU antitrust fine by offering customers reduced prices for Office products excluding Teams, a move that comes amid rising tensions with the United States over EU scrutiny of Big Tech. MSFT also reached a deal to extend its partnership with OpenAI for the next phase of our partnership. We are actively working to finalize contractual terms in a definitive agreement.
• In Communication & Networking: ANET announced 2026 guidance, which came in just higher than consensus. Long term revenue CAGR was guided to mid-teens; the company sees a greater TAM of $105B in 2029, up from $60B in 2027, driven by multiple new target markets.
• In Quantum sector: IONQ shares jumped after hosting their analyst day in New York, expected to discuss strategy and vision, recent milestones/progress; earlier announced that it has secured UK Investment Security Unit regulatory clearance for the acquisition of Oxford Ionics.
• In Internet: CVC Capital Partners is closing in on buying a majority stake in Namecheap, in a deal that values the big domain registrar and web-hosting provider at about $1.5B including debt. Rivals include GDDY, which has a market value of more than $20B, and Europe-based SiteGround. https://tinyurl.com/yu97tfrw ; AMZN, GOOGL probed by FTC over search advertising practices per Bloomberg. scrutinizing whether Amazon and Google misled advertisers.
• In Media: WBD and PSKY shares extended Thursday’s rally. PSKY jumped 15.6% on Thursday after the WSJ reported the company is preparing a bid to buy WBD, potentially reshaping the entertainment industry (WBD ended 28% higher in prior session). The deal would come just weeks after Skydance merged with Paramount in a $8.4B deal. PSKY is headed by David Ellison, son ORCL co-founder Larry Ellison. The NY Post later reported Discovery CEO David Zaslav wants bidding war for his media giant — even as Paramount Skydance plans takeover offer. https://tinyurl.com/2s3vyw7k  

• SMCI shares rose after beginning shipments of its artificial-intelligence Blackwell Ultra solutions powered by Nvidia chips to customers worldwide. The systems include Nvidia’s plug-and-play HGX B300 system and GB300 NVL72, which are used for training AI models.
• In Semi-equipment: Mizuho downgraded AMAT to Neutral (PT to $175 from $200) while raised LRCX ests and PT to $130 from $120 as see share shifts within the WFE industry as China competition and technology transitions drive increased competition. Mizuho believes LRCX is better positioned to gain share with critical layer steps, driving >50% of new design wins with Moly ALD, GAA and TSV etch; AMAT could see share loss, with PVD/legacy node exposure, Chinese competition as ~$8-9B/yr China exposed revs could see downside in 2026E/27E. Separately, CAMT announced a pricing private offering of $425M 0% 5-yr convertible bonds.