Closing Recap

Tuesday, September 16, 2025

U.S. stock markets have made their move, hitting fresh record highs this morning before a slight pullback, ending the day slightly lower as investors await tomorrow’s FOMC policy meeting results. A 25bps cut is expected with a small % actually looking for a possible greater 50-bps cut following weeks of softer economic data, specifically in the jobs sector. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) winning streak ended at 9-days (longest streak in 2-years), while the S&P 500 (SPX) edged lower after its 10^th straight strong open, it still held above the 6,600 level all day. The U.S. dollar hit 4-year lows vs. the euro and has lost more than 12% since its peak in January, helping give a boost to gold prices which hit another record high this year, on fears of a slowing jobs sector/economy. There was little news today moving markets as software stocks, homebuilders, nuclear/utility stocks, banks took a breather after a tremendous run in recent days. Energy was a market leader today while Utilities lagged, but all eyes on the Fed tomorrow with major averages holding record highs into the meeting. Will market seasonality come into play this year? Or is the market momentum just too much to overcome. @bespokeinvest tweeted on “X”, “Over the last 10 years, the week following the close on 9/15 has been among the weakest of the year. Median change is a decline of 1.15% with gains just four times.”

Interesting stats: @KobeissiLetter noted bullish momentum is incredibly strong saying, “Market breadth is improving: The number of stocks on the NYSE and NASDAQ hitting new 52-week highs just hit its highest level in 2025. There have now been 18 consecutive weeks with more new highs than new lows, the longest streak since 2021. This matches the 18-straight weeks seen during the rally in Q4 2024. Furthermore, 60% of the S&P 500’s components are now trading above their 200-day moving average, near the highest share since December 2024. The S&P 500 has hit 25 all-time highs year-to-date, its second-best streak since 2021.”

• Import prices for August rose +0.3% vs. consensus (-0.1%) and vs July +0.2%; August export prices +0.3% vs. consensus unchanged and vs July +0.3%; Aug year-over-year import prices unchanged, export prices +3.4%; Aug non-petroleum import prices +0.2%, year-over-year +0.9%.
• Industrial Production for August rose +0.1% vs. consensus -0.1% and vs July -0.4% while capacity utilization rate 77.4% was in-line with consensus 77.4% and the prior month.
• July Business Inventories +0.2% in-line with consensus +0.2% and vs June +0.2%; July inventory/sales ratio 1.37 months’ worth vs June 1.38 months; July business sales +1.0% vs June +0.7% (prev +0.5%).

• December gold rose $6.10 or 0.16% to settle at $3,725.10 an ounce staying at all-time highs into the FOMC rate decision tomorrow. The dollar index (DXY) fell -0.65% to 96.65, new 4-year lows while the Euro rises 0.88% at 1.1864 as the dollar extends declines into FOMC tomorrow.
• The 10-yr yield little changed on day awaiting the FOMC policy news, -0.004bps below 4.03% while the 2-yr -2bps to 3.51%. The Treasury sale of $13 billion 20 Year Bonds was right on the market, but the demand was solid. The yield at 4.613% is fractionally lower than the market

• In Restaurants: PLAY shares tumbled after earnings results as Q2 EBITDA of $130M fell $12M below consensus owing to softer comps and ~$9M expenses not expected to repeat in FY2H25 while Q2 comp sales fell -3.0% vs -2.2% consensus, but improved 530bps sequentially. CMG authorizes additional $500M for share repurchases; DENN shares active on activist headlines as JCP Investment Management disclosed that it holds an active stake in Denny’s Corporation of 7.8% and plans to engage the board.
• In Retail: VFC was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel saying the risk/reward appears in balance following a run-in shares; RL shares fell after reiterating annual forecasts, projects revenue to increase at a compound annual growth rate of mid-single digits and operating margin to expand about 100 to 150 basis points over next three years ahead of its Investor Day.

• In Industrials: FERG reported Q4 revenue, profit beat as EPS of $3.48 topped estimates of $2.88 and sales of $8.5B above consensus $8.41B saying revs from non-residential markets, which accounts for about half of co’s U.S. revenue, grew 15% y/y; sees mid-single digit rev growth for 2025 and raises adj op margin view. BE shares rose after price tgt raised to $85 from $44 at Morgan Stanley saying ORCL’s massive upside bookings surprise opens up new visions for Bloom’s potential scale. This comes just a month after Bloom announced in July an agreement to power Oracle AI data centers with its fuel cells.
• In Metals & Mining: in precious metals, Another day, another all-time high for gold prices topping $3,430 an ounce amid a weaker dollar and an expected easing rate cut cycle by the Fed starting tomorrow. In Steel producers: STLD guided Q3 EPS $2.60-$2.64 vs. est. $2.57; said profitability from steel operations is expected to be stronger than sequential Q2 results, driven by strong shipments and metal spread expansion as scrap raw material costs are expected to decline more than average realized steel pricing.
• In Materials: The US is weighing the creation of a $5 billion mining investment fund, which would mark its largest step yet into direct dealmaking to secure critical minerals, according to a Bloomberg report out this morning. As a result, shares of rare earth companies MP, USAR advanced.

• In Crypto: CIFR tgt was raised from $9 to $13, maintains Buy at Canaccord saying while CIFR stock has already responded to an uptick in AI data center activity recently, Canaccord believes there is still more to come. Canaccord believes a deal for the Barber Lake facility could be signed by the end of this year. The firm also raised its tgt on IREN from $37 to $42 saying believes all of the hard work the company has put into motion has more payoff to come.
• In Financial Services: Wells Fargo said shares of SPGI and MCO to benefit most as M&A and capital mkts activity is likely to accelerate. Wells sees high potential for a pickup in M&A and capital markets activity in 2H25. Wells views SPGI and MCO as the primary beneficiaries, with FDS likely to see some uplift as well, though the impact may be more limited than historically. Oppenheimer raised ests and tgt to $300 on RDDT saying Similarweb regression suggests 3Q US logged-in DAU (primary driver of revenue) 0.8M/1.1M above Street. QTD ad portal visits also accelerated on 2-yr basis to +47% vs. 2Q/1Q’s +30%/+19%.
• In Consumer Finance (COF, AXP, C): Jefferies noted August credit monitor highlighted seasonally lower DQs and flat NCOs, with both metrics improved on a Y/Y basis. Credit card DQs, -29bps Y/Y in Aug vs -31% Y/Y in Jul, and NCOs, -56bps Y/Y in Aug vs -69bps Y/Y in Jul, were slightly pared back M/M. Similarly, auto issuers saw both DQs and NCOs relatively flat in Aug, though better than historical seasonality would suggest while Y/Y comps continued to decline. Additionally, loan balances, in line with guidance to slowing Y/Y loan growth and up +1.8% Y/Y to $515B, and the payment rate, up +5bps Y/Y to 35.6% in Aug.
• In REITs: AIV shares rise after declares $2.23 per share special cash dividend to be paid on Oct 15, 2025; BDN was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Truist saying slow development lease-up and higher interest rates have negatively impacted BDN’s earnings and financial leverage. PLD was upgraded to Buy at Bank America saying it offers high-single-digit % annual FFO growth in a normalized environment. PGRE shares jumped late day after the WSJ reported a real-estate firm based in New York City is nearing a deal to buy them, saying the leading bid is from Rithm Capital (RITM). https://tinyurl.com/bpawfznh

• HIMS shares fell after the FDA issued the telehealth giant a warning letter regarding its knockoff version of Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide. The Sept. 9 letter notes that Hims & Hers Health markets compounded semaglutide on its website.
• NMRA was downgraded to Underweight at JP Morgan after the company’s lead drug candidate, navacaprant, fails to meet main and key secondary goals of a late-stage trial to treat major depressive disorder; now expects co to underperform in two other late-stage trials that are inherently high risk.
• NVO said patients on experimental weight-loss drug Cagrilintide achieved 11.8% weight loss after 68 weeks, according to data extracted from a broader trial of obesity treatments. Around one-third of patients achieved over 15% weight loss; said Cagrilintide was well tolerated.
• OSCR shares fell after launches proposed convertible senior subordinated notes offering to scale long-term growth and consumer and employer adoption of the individual market.
• PODD names Flavia Pease new CFO (coming from CRL), as current CFO Ana Maria Chadwick to transition to senior advisor role; PODD now expects to exceed Q3 revenue view of 22%-25%.

• In Media & Entertainment: WBD was downgraded to hold from buy at TD Cowen after the stock rallied even as Paramount is still to make an official offer; WBTN shares jumped after DIS said it plans to acquire a 2% equity interest in the online comics company; LYV was downgraded from Buy to Neutral at Redburn (raised tgt to $170 from $144) after reports U.S. regulators were investigating whether Live Nation’s Ticketmaster was doing enough to prevent bots from illegally reselling tickets on its platform. NYT pressured after President Trump said he is bringing $15B defamation and libel lawsuit against the company. ROKU shares rose as Cleveland Research said outlook favorable on AMZN partnership and demand sounds better than expected near term.