Closing Recap

Thursday, September 18, 2025

U.S. stock markets close at fresh record highs for the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and now Smallcap Russell 2000 index as market optimism remains strong post FOMC 25 bps rate cut and a forecast for another 50bps worth of cuts this year. After the market gap up overnight, major averages held those gains, building upon them with most of the S&P sectors closing higher – but again led by Technology (XLK) +1.7% behind a near 4% spike in semiconductors (SOX up 10 of last 11 days) after NVDA announced a $5B investment in INTC and software as CRWD shares surged 10% following guidance at its investor day. The strength follows recent massive moves in ORCL and AVGO on AI order news as tech has been the main catalyst for broader markets. Crypto assets also saw strength today with Bitcoin hitting 1-month highs around $117,500 and lifting related stocks (COIN, MSTR). On the data front, Weekly jobless claims fell to 231,000 from an upwardly revised 264,000 (vs. est. 240,000), while September’s Philadelphia Fed activity survey surprises on the upside. In central banks news, the Bank of England kept rates unchanged and said it was slowing the pace of its quantitative tightening program and skewing sales away from long-dated gilts to minimize the impact on turbulent bond markets. The Russell 2000 index of small-cap U.S. companies touched an intraday record high, topping its previous all-time high of 2,466.49 points, hit on Nov 25, 2024, and surpassed its record close of 2,442.74 points reached more than three years ago. The index has recovered about 42% from its April 7 low when worries about Trump’s sweeping tariffs rattled global markets.

• Philadelphia Fed business conditions September surged to 23.2 (above consensus 2.5) and vs August -0.3, while prices paid index for September tumbled to 46.8 vs August 66.8; strong new orders index September 12.4 vs August -1.9 and employment index September 5.6 vs August 5.9; six-month business conditions September 31.5 vs August 25.0 and xix-month capital expenditures outlook September 12.5 vs August 38.4.
• U.S. leading index dropped -0.5% to 98.4 in August, lower than expected and the weakest level since February 2015. The index inched up 0.1% to 98.9 (was 98.7) in July after falling -0.3% to 98.8 in June.

• Oil prices erased earlier gains as WTI crude fell -$0.48 or 0.75% to settle at $63.57 per barrel while Brent crude declined -$0.51 or 0.75% to settle at $67.44 per barrel. Natural gas prices declined -5% to a 1-week low at $2.939 per million British thermal units following a build in weekly inventory data.
• Treasury yields crept higher as fixed income investors adjust their assumptions for growth and inflation following yesterday’s quarter-point interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve. The 10-year yield topped 4.13% this morning before ending around 4.1%, rising 3bps on day (and above low 3.99% Wednesday).

• In Retail: AS said it now expects Q3 y/y revenue growth to be in the high 20s percentage as compared to previous guidance of approximately 20% growth; also now expects adjusted operating margin to be at or above the high end of the previous guidance range of 12–13%; NKE was upgraded to Outperform with $90 PT at RBC Capital saying the company is taking the right steps, with clear improvement in Running Footwear offer, positive channel checks, survey findings and a refreshed organizational structure. DECK shares fell after being initiated at Underperform at Bernstein with a $100 price target.

• In Nuclear/Utility: NRG raised 2025 guidance to $7.55-$8.15 (from $6.75-$7.75) vs. consensus $7.79; raises FY25 Adj Ebitda view to $3.88B-$4.03B from $3.725B-$3.975B; raises FY25 Adj net income guidance to $1.47B-$1.59B; said revised guidance reflects exceptional business performance across all segments. PCG was upgraded from Underweight to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley saying they are more comfortable with PCG`s investment case – the replenished fund coupled with the current ~50% discount to the sector P/E offer a much more favorable risk reward compared to when it downgraded the stock back in Feb 2025. LEU, OKLO, SMR, NNE all seeing strength in nuclear space again on AI investment power needs.

• In Exchanges: shares of NDAQ, CME, CBOE were weaker most of the day as a decision is expected Thursday from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on a new exchange that could shake up the options market. It has a bunch of proponents and some big opponents. The new exchange would bring to options the same “speed bump” entrance ramp that IEX Markets uses in its stock exchange. That speed bump is IEX’s way of protecting institutional traders from being outraced by deep-pocketed, computerized rivals.

• In Fintech: Mizuho noted rate cuts are here! So, who will benefit most in Fintech? To gauge this Mizuho conducted a quant analysis which suggests that bank processors (FI, FIS), consumer lenders (AFRM, SOFI, UPST) and exchanges (HOOD, COIN, ETOR) are best positioned to benefit from rate cuts. On the other end of the spectrum, rate-sensitive companies like CRCL / USDC stablecoin could face headwinds.
• In Financial Services: FDS reported mixed Q4 results while forecast annual revenue between $2.42B-$2.45B, compared to analysts’ average estimate of the $2.45B and forecast 2026 adj diluted EPS in the range of $16.90-$17.60, lower than analysts’ expectation of $18.26 (note shares of other financial data service names SPGI, MCO, MSCIand TRI were under pressure all day).
• In Payments: AXP is raising the annual fee on its Platinum credit card to $895, from $695, effective Thursday saying the card will now come with more than $3,500 in annual benefits, including credits of $400 for restaurants and $600 for hotels. It previously offered over $1,500 in rewards.

• In Lending: In the GSE space (FNMA), KBW Inc. said they think an attempt at GSE privatization appears likely to start in early 2026, but hurdles still exist. President Trump has publicly stated that his goal is to take the companies public, and others in the administration have echoed his remarks. We continue to think GSE privatization will be done administratively, and Congress will not play a role.

• NTLA said it has completed enrolling patients in a late-stage study of its experimental therapy, lonvoguran ziclumeran, for the treatment of hereditary angioedema and says it is on track to submit a biologics license application in H2 2026 to support the company’s plans for a potential U.S. launch in H1 2027
• NVO shares jumped as Ozempic reduces the risk of heart attack, stroke and death by 23% in people with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease compared to Eli Lilly’s (LLY) rival drug dulaglutide (also known as Trulicity), the company said Thursday.
• REPL shares tumbled after announced that the company completed a Type A meeting with the FDA on September 16th to discuss the complete response letter (CRL) for the Company’s Biologics License Application (BLA) for RP1 in combination with nivolumab for the treatment of advanced melanoma.
• Healthcare Facilities: JP Morgan upgraded AVAH to Neutral from Underweight, increase its earnings estimates for 2026/2027, and increase its December 2026 price target to $10 (from $6), while maintains its ratings for CON (Overweight; top outpatient pick), INNV (Underweight), SGRY Neutral), and USPH (OW).

• In Aerospace & Defense: drone tech firm RCAT shares fell after priced 15.625M share offering at $9.60 per share; the gross proceeds from the offering to the Company are expected to be approximately $150M. TDY launched its Hydrogen Electrical Power System (HEPS) fuel cell aboard Blue Origin’s New Shepard rocket through NASA’s Tipping Point opportunity. Launched successfully on August 23, this flight advances fuel cell technology for future lunar and deep space missions.
• In Steel sector: NUE guides Q3 EPS in the range of $2.05-$2.15 per diluted share vs. est. $2.59; said Q3 earnings are expected to decrease across all three of our operating segments as compared to Q2. CMC to acquire Concrete Pipe & Precast for $675M in cash deal.
• In Chemicals: DD revised its prior outlook to reflect the planned spin-off of its electronics unit and the divestiture of its Aramids business as cuts Q3 adj profit est. to $1.06 per share from prior view of $1.15 per share and forecasts 2025 net sales of about $6.87B vs prior outlook of $12.85B.
• In Uranium: UEC shares slipped early after short-seller Spruce Point Capital announces "strong sell" research opinion on the company saying, “We applaud and agree with the Trump administration’s desire to strengthen domestic uranium capabilities, but do not believe that UEC is the right company to lead the industry’s revival" – Spruce Point Capital.

• In Storage: BOX was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS in assumption of coverage saying the company’s core business fundamentals remain stable, but the stock’s near-term upside is limited. UBS also downgraded DBX to Sell from Neutral saying channel checks show negative demand signals for Dropbox Dash, the company’s new artificial intelligence product, as well as continued pressure on its core file, sync, and share business.
• In Quantum compute: IONQ shares extend recent gains after announced the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the U.S. Department of Energy to advance the development and deployment of quantum technologies in space; RGTI announced that it was awarded a three-year, $5.8 million contract from the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) to advance superconducting quantum networking.

• NVDA also said it will invest £2 billion to boost UK AI startups, including a £500 million stake in British AI data center firm Nscale. The investment, coordinated with major venture capital firms, aims to give UK researchers and startups access to financing and computing power to strengthen global AI competitiveness.