Closing Recap

Friday, September 26, 2025

U.S. stocks managed a solid effort on Friday as more than 1% gains for Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Utilities (XLU), REITs (XLRE), Materials (XLB) and Healthcare (XLV) provided a well-rounded rebound on Wall Street as all eleven S&P sectors were strong/positive as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq snapped their 3-day losing streaks but snapped their 3-week win streaks. Economic data kicked things off favorably for equities after the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge (core PCE) grew at a marginally slower pace in August (and in-line with consensus), helping keep interest-rate cut expectations intact for next month. The other big story overnight was tariffs as the President announced tariff news in the heavy-duty trucks sector, pharmaceuticals, furniture and a media report noted plans in the semiconductor sector. In stock news, EA shares spiked on a media report of going private, BA shares led the Dow after positive FAA headlines (boosting parts suppliers ATI, CRS, HXL) and crypto stocks rebounded with Bitcoin reclaiming $110,000. Volumes dried up throughout the trading day, with stocks melting higher most of the afternoon as traders’ focus may have swung to golf and the Ryder Cup. Some market concern ahead next Tuesday if Congress fails to pass and the President sign a funding bill (either full-year appropriations or a short-term resolution) by midnight on Sept 30, 2025, the US government will partially shut down at 12:01 a.m. EDT on October 1, 2025. This marks the start of fiscal year 2026, when current funding expires.

President Trump announced that 25% tariffs on imported heavy trucks would commence from October 1. From the same date there will be a 50% tariff on imported kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities and associated products, along with 30% tariffs on upholstered furniture. Trump said this was due to such products flooding into the US. The tariff announcement requiring most clarification is on pharmaceuticals. Trump said that from October 1, a 100% tariff would apply to “branded or patented” pharmaceutical products, unless the company concerned has commenced construction of manufacturing plants in the US. Also, the WSJ reported that the Trump administration is weighing a new plan to reduce dramatically the U.S.’s reliance on semiconductors made overseas, hoping to spur domestic manufacturing and reshape global supply chains. The policy’s goal is to have chip companies manufacture the same number of semiconductors in the U.S. as their customers import from overseas producers.

• US Aug personal saving rate 4.6% down from 4.8% in July while the Aug personal income +0.4% (above consensus +0.3%) was in-line with July +0.4% and Aug Personal Spending +0.6% (vs. consensus +0.5%) and above July +0.5%. lastly, Aug real consumer spending +0.4% vs July +0.4%.
• University of Michigan surveys of consumers sentiment final Sept 55.1 (consensus 55.4) vs preliminary Sept 55.4 and final Aug 58.2; current conditions index final Sept 60.4 vs prelim Sept 61.2 and final Aug 61.7; the expectations index final Sept 51.7 vs prelim Sept 51.8 and final Aug 55.9.
• University of Michigan surveys of consumers 1-year inflation outlook final Sept 4.7% vs prelim 4.8% and final Aug 4.8% and 5-year inflation outlook final Sept 3.7% vs prelim 3.9% and final Aug 3.5%.

• U.S. WTI crude oil futures rose $0.74, or 1.14% to settle at $65.72 per barrel while Brent crude advanced $0.71 or 1.02% to settle at $70.13 per barrel, posting their best weekly gains in more than 3 months, as WTI crude gained over 5% this week. Natural Gas for October delivery goes off the board at $2.835/mmBtu, off 2.4%, and the November contract rises 0.3% to $3.206/mmBtu
• After rising on Thursday, the dollar index (DXY) declined all afternoon, falling -0.4% at 98.17 after bouncing yesterday along with Treasury yields.
• Treasury yields were mixed today as longer-dated yields rose after data showed strong consumer spending in August, while inflation increased in line with economists’ expectations during the month.
•  The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes was last up 1.1 basis points on the day at 4.185% while the 2-yr yield fell 2 basis points to 3.645%.
• For the week the 10-yr yield rose 4.7bps to settle at 4.185% (up 12.7bps the last 2-weeks) and up 7 of the last 8 days since the Fed cuts rates by 25 bps; the 2-yr yield rose 6.4bps for the week to 3.646%, up 3-straight weeks (and +14bps during that 3-week stretch).

• In Home furnishing/improvement: The sector was pressured today, with shares of Wayfair (W), WSM, RH shares falling the most after the Trump administration said they were imposing a 50% Tariff on all Kitchen Cabinets, Bathroom Vanities, and associated products, starting October 1st, 2025. Additionally, we will be charging a 30% Tariff on Upholstered Furniture. The reason for this is the large scale “flooding” of these products into the United States by other outside Countries. Shares of LZB rallied given that the majority of its products are made in North America. ETD shares gain with the company stating in July that most of its furniture is made in North America.

• In Nuclear/Utilities: MIR priced 17.3M shares at $21.35 for about $369.6 mln gross raise and said it priced private offering of $325 mln 0% convertible bonds due 2031. DUK was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies saying with the stock trading at a 4% premium to peers, successful execution is now fully reflected in the stock price and sees limited near-term catalysts for Duke. For NRG, Texas Governor Greg Abbott today announced the third Texas Energy Fund loan agreement for a 721 megawatt (MW) natural gas power plant near Baytown. NRG Energy will build the plant, which is estimated to begin generating power by summer 2028 and will serve the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) power region.

• ALKS was upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital and raised tgt to $44 from $42 saying its analysis of potential NT2 treatment effects for alixorexton suggest the drug is likely to show clinically meaningful benefits for patients, with a generally tolerable safety profile.
• APLS was downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman Sachs and cut tgt to $18 from $26 as sees longer-term growth for Syfovre in geographic atrophy but potential risks to the near-term outlook. Goldman models peak sales of $1.1B in 2030, below the consensus estimate of $1.3B.
• CRNX shares rallied after the FDA approved its drug, Palsonify, to treat a rare hormonal disorder called acromegaly, making it the first once-daily oral pill available for patients in the country. Treatment options for acromegaly include surgery to remove pituitary tumors, radiation therapy and medications.
• IONS was upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman Sachs and raised tgt to $65 from $45 as structurally the company has optimized its antisense oligonucleotide technology and its application to targets/disease areas — as evidenced by the recent positive Ph3 Tryngolza data in severe hypertriglyceridemia that showed a significant impact on the key acute pancreatitis (AP) endpoint
• KVUE was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Redburn noting shares have fallen over 20% this month following a report in the Wall Street Journal that the US Health & Human Services (HHS) department would link usage of Tylenol by expectant mothers with an increased risk of autism in infants. Redburn sees the actual proposals laid out this week by the HHS department as more measured than feared.
• SNY said it would offer a month’s supply of any of its insulin products for $35 to all patients in the U.S. with a valid prescription, regardless of insurance status.

• In Chemicals: Ag chemicals MOS, NTR, CF shares active on reports the European Commission has opened an anti-dumping investigation into fertilizer imports from Russia and Belarus. This action is a response to complaints from the Union industry of urea, which allege that these imports are causing injury to the EU market. The investigation focuses on urea with varying nitrogen concentrations.
• In Aerospace & Defense: the WSJ reported the FAA to ease restrictions on BA Boeing aircraft deliveries as Boeing is slated to regain authority from the Federal Aviation Administration to perform final safety checks on its 737 MAX jets. Shares of aero parts suppliers and metals names like CRS, HXL, ATI and others rallied.
• In Uranium/Power: The Department of Energy is set to announce at least $900 million to boost uranium enrichment in the U.S. nuclear power sector, several sources close to the discussion told POLITICO’s E&E News. The funding comes as the U.S. prepares to cut off imports of uranium from Russia in 2028.
• In Paper & Packaging: Jefferies trimmed estimates for IP and SW citing demand and pricing softer than expected in Europe, but the impact will be more felt in 2026. With the European containerboard market oversupplied, Jefferies sees IP taking a leadership position & potentially shutting down up to 4 mills to tighten the market & optimizing its mill & box network.

• In Hardware: Two positive calls on AAPL as Bank America said carrier promotions are helping offset the iPhone 17 Pro’s higher starting price ($1,099 for 256GB), making upgrades more affordable through bundled financing, extended installment plans, and aggressive trade-in offers. Meanwhile, Evercore raised its tgt to $290 as their annual iPhone survey of nearly 4,000 consumers points to a stronger-than-expected iPhone cycle, supported by solid hardware upgrades and mix shifts toward higher-end Pro models
• In Optical & Networking: CIEN was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Rosenblatt with $175 tgt on the Scale Across opportunity to network multiple AI Data Centers into clusters. So far, Ciena has won one such deal with a Hyper Scaler to connect two 100,000 GPU Data Centers 100km apart using WaveLogic 6 Nano 800G ZR pluggables.
• In IT Services & Consulting: CNXC shares tumbled on results/guidance as Q3 adj EPS $2.78 missed the consensus est. $2.86 while revs $2.48B vs. est. $2.458B; Q3 adj EBITDA $359.2M vs. est. $380M and adj Operating Income $305.1M vs. est. $322M.
• In Software: Morgan Stanley named MSFT was named top pick and raised tgt to $625 citing strong momentum across GenAI, cloud, and cybersecurity, which it sees as the biggest wallet share gainers. The firm notes Microsoft’s cybersecurity scale at over $40B in revenue cements its position as the #1 vendor, while consolidation of spend trends reinforce durability.