Closing Recap

Monday, September 29, 2025

U.S. stocks stayed strong most of the day following another “gap-up” spike overnight, led by another rally in technology related stocks as investors await key jobs data, Fed speakers and a potential government shutdown that looms. Gold prices surged to another fresh all-time high, while oil prices tumbled nearly -4%, erasing big gains last week as supply fears rise. Key jobs data coming this week with monthly JOLTs job openings data tomorrow, ADP private payrolls Wednesday, jobless claims Thursday and monthly non-farm September payroll data on Friday (as long as the government remains open). Overall markets were very quiet as many Monday’s have been in recent weeks, awaiting potential market moving developments later in the week. In stock news a few notable movers as cannabis names rallied, as did biotech, defense stocks and crypto names.  Stocks slid in the final hour of trading before bouncing in another listless trading session just off record highs.

Markets now wait to see if Congress fails to pass and the President sign a funding bill (either full-year appropriations or a short-term resolution) by midnight on Sept 30, 2025; if so, the US government will partially shut down at 12:01 a.m. EDT on October 1, 2025. This marks the start of fiscal year 2026, when current funding expires. Note the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said this morning it does not plan to release economic data if the gov’t shuts down this week (nonfarm payroll data is expected on Friday morning). President Trump was due to meet with congressional leaders today in a last-ditch effort to head off a government shutdown that could disrupt a wide range of services as soon as Wednesday. CNBC reported prediction markets are pricing in about a 70% chance that the federal government will shut down on Wednesday.

• U.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing index dropped -6.9 points to -8.7 in September, weaker than analysts expected. The index dropped -2.7 ticks to -1.8 in August after surging 13.6 points to 0.9 in July which broke a string of five consecutive negative readings. Most components showed notably slower growth than in Augus

• Gold price hit another record high, a continuation of rally for last few months behind expectation of lower interest rates, while fears of inflation remain. December gold surged another $46.20 or 1.19% to settle at a fresh all-time highs $3,855.20 an ounce. Meanwhile, fears of a potential government shutdown and escalating geopolitical tensions also helping boost gold.
• Copper prices have risen over 18% YTD, rising 2% last week after U.S. miner Freeport-McMoRan said it was unable to fulfill contracts after halting production at Grasberg–the world’s 2nd-largest copper mine by output–due to a fatal mudslide accident. Freeport warned of significant production delays, with 2026 output at its Indonesian subsidiary set to be about 35% below previous estimates.

• In Specialty Retail: AS upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight and raise PT to $40 noting shares -20% this past month (vs. SPX +3%) and the firm takes advantage of the sell-off following diligence/expert checks in China that point to little-to-no concern both NT and LT over recent Arc social media backlash.
• In Restaurants: SHAK Reit Buy but lower ests and tgt at Truist (to $156 from $162) as analysis of SHAK’s menu pricing (it ests. a ~+2% increase in mid-August), its beef costs (spiked in Q325 and already receding) and the Truist Card Data (point to SSS beat) suggest very little risk to Q325 or ’25 guidance; WING tgt cut to $340 from $410 at Benchmark after mgmt visit but remain highly constructive on shares.

• In Home Furnishing Retail: W, WSM, RH shares pressured again after President Trump said on “Truth Social”, In order to make North Carolina, which has completely lost its furniture business to China, and other Countries, GREAT again, I will be imposing substantial Tariffs on any Country that does not make its furniture in the United States.”

• In Casino & Gaming (WYNN, MGM, LVS): Las Vegas strip GGR increased 6% y/y in August (flat hold-adjusted, vs July’s +1%), while volume ex baccarat rose 2% (vs +4% in July) as per Barclays. Visitation was down 7% (vs -12% in July) sequentially less bad to be sure but likely driven by more promos/softer ADR: Strip ADR worsened to -7% y/y (-3% in July). In online betting, Barclays noted State data showed DKNG grew hold +21% YoY, driving GGR growth of +29% with a hold rate of 10.2%, up from 9.6% a year ago.
• In Cruise lines: CCL reported Q3 adj EPS $1.43 vs. est. $1.32 and revs $8.15B vs. est. $8.11B; 2026 advanced booked position in line with 2025 record levels, at historical high prices in constant currency; raises FY25 adjusted EPS view to $2.14 from $1.97 prior (est. $2.02) due to improved net yields and effective cost & balance sheet management; now expected to be up nearly 55% y/y; VIK announces launch $1.7B senior notes offering maturing 2033.

• In Nuclear/Power names: VST reaches final investment decision to build two new advanced natural gas power units, totaling 860 megawatts, on-site at its Permian Basin Power Plant; expansion triples the site’s capacity from 325 megawatts to 1,185 MW. In Research, OKLO initiated new Overweight w/ $146 PT at Barclays calling it a levered way to invest in the SMR theme. SMR was initiated at Equal Weight and $46 tgt saying its role will be more as an OEM and it technically will only have on customer, ENTRA1, who will serve as the exclusive developer who will be commercializing the NuScale SMR Technology.
• In Coal sector: shares of coal producers such as BTU, ARLP, HCC advanced after the Trump administration says it will expand coal mine leasing on federal lands and provide hundreds of millions of dollars to support more coal-fired power generation.

• In Crypto: a nice bounce back day for the Bitcoin/Ethereum pricing and related crypto stocks (MSTR, COIN, etc.); BMNR announces Ethereum holdings exceeding 2.65M tokens and total crypto and cash holdings of $11.6B; MSTR said during the period of September 22 to September 28, it acquired an additional 196 bitcoin for approximately $22.1M, at an average purchase price of $113,048 per bitcoin.

• ENTA said its experimental RSV treatment fails to meet the main goal of shortening the time taken to reduce the severity of some symptoms. However, the trial meets multiple secondary goals, including faster improvement on a patient‑reported severity measure.
• GSK said CEO Emma Walmsley will step down in December and be replaced by insider Luke Miels, the British drugmaker said on Monday, after nine years in the role.
• IOBT shares tumbled after provides update following pre-BLA meeting with FDA where the agency recommends not submitting BLA based on the data from the IOB-013 clinical trial; plans to design new registrational study for Cylembio; announces 50% workforce reduction.
• LRMR shares sunk after reported that seven participants in the study of its treatment of Friedreich’s ataxia suffered from anaphylaxis. Larimar modified its starting dose regimen after the two most recent cases of anaphylaxis; said the study showed positive biological responses to the drug.
• MLTX shares tumbled over -80% after its only drug candidate, sonelokimab, failed twin Phase 3 trials in the inflammatory skin condition hidradenitis suppurativa. While one study technically beat placebo by 17 percentage points, it fell short of the 23-point margin needed to compete with an approved antibody called Bimzelx from Belgium-based UCB
• MRUS shares surge after the biotechnology company agreed to be acquired by Danish biotech GMAB for about $8 billion; Genmab said it will pay $97 a share in cash for Merus, a roughly 41% premium to Friday’s closing price of $68.89.
• NVO was downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley due to limited visibility, downside catalysts and rising GLP-1 competition from innovators, compounders and generics; says the lack of momentum in US prescriptions for Wegovy, Ozempic and Rybelsus make them cautious on the short-term growth profile.
• Cannabis sector advanced (CGC, CRLBF, CRON, CURLF, GRWG, TCNNF, TLRY) after a social media post by U.S. President Donald Trump over the weekend that suggested potential health benefits from the use of cannabidiol. Trump’s post on Sunday said cannabidiol (CBD) could "revolutionize senior healthcare" by helping reduce disease progression and was shown as an alternative to prescription drugs.

• In Aerospace & Defense: Shares of RTX, LMT, NOC, LHX, GD advanced early after the WSJ reported the Pentagon is urging missile suppliers to double or even quadruple production rates to address low weapons stockpiles for a potential conflict with China. Deputy Defense Secretary Steve Feinberg is taking a hands-on role in the Munitions Acceleration Council, which aims to boost output of 12 critical weapons, including Patriot interceptors. ACHR announced that its partner, Soracle, a joint venture between Japan Airlines and Sumitomo Corp., has been named to lead the establishment of air taxi services in the Osaka Prefecture. JOBY partners with RAKTA and Skyports to launch air taxi service in Ras Al Khaimah by 2027.

• In Rare Earth: USAR announced it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire LCM, the world’s most established ex-China rare earth metal and alloy producer; USAR to buy LCM for $100 mln cash and 6.74 million shares of co common stock.
• In Metals & Mining: precious metals took another leg higher, boosted by gold miners (NEM, AEM, FNV, AU, KGC) as December gold futures extend its advance, rising to record highs above $3,850 per ounce.

• In Software: Video game giant EA entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by an investor consortium comprised of PIF, Silver Lake and Affinity Partners in an all-cash transaction that values EA at an enterprise value of approximately $55 billion, or $210 per share.
• In Hardware & Components: INVZ upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman Sachs reflecting design win potential over the next 3-6 months and relative valuation and raises its 12-month price target to $2.50 as believes with autonomous technology increasingly important for OEMs, there will be incremental higher level ADAS/AV program awards

• In Memory/HDD/flash: WDC positive analyst mention as: 1) Wedbush a note saying they believe HDD component shipments (and builds) increased modestly Q/Q. With models assuming flattish units, we see room for upside (both pricing and volume) particularly for WDC; 2) Rosenblatt raising PT on WDC to $125 saying the recent announcements of artificial intelligence data center buildouts has convinced it demand for hard disk drives will outstrip supply at least through fiscal 2027; 3) Morgan Stanley raised tgt on WDC to $171 from $99 and STX to $265 from $168 as materially raising forecasts saying HDD demand is inflecting higher — a result of strengthening cloud spend, more tokens processed, emerging data-rich media creation, and growing data retention needs.