Mid-Morning Look

Friday, April 21, 2023

U.S. stocks opened flattish, slipped initially on this option expiration Friday, but again find traction, pushing back to the upside in another “buy the dip” moment markets have grown accustomed to the last few weeks. Defensive sectors such as Staples, Healthcare leading, along with Energy and Consumer Discretionary. U.S. economic growth accelerated again in April, led by services sector S&P Global data showed, rising at the sharpest rate in almost a year and signaling a resilient economy despite rising interest rates. The data likely only reinforces the hawkish Fed interest rate bet into the May FOMC meeting (and possibly beyond). It was a big week of earnings, but next week we are somewhere in the range of over 170 S&P companies expected to report including the likes of AMZN, GOOGL, META, CAT, BA, MRK. Asian markets fell overnight on reports the White House was said to be considering an executive order in the coming weeks to limit U.S. investment in key parts of China’s economy by American businesses. The dollar is recently higher but pares those advances early while Treasury yields are higher. Oil is headed for the first weekly loss since last month’s banking crisis, weighed down by concerns over demand and the US economy.

Economic Data

·     S&P Global April flash composite PMI reported better at 53.5 (vs 52.3 in March) and vs. 49.0 estimates and S&P global April flash services PMI at 53.7 vs. est. 52.0 (vs 52.6 in March).

Sector Movers Today

·     In Discount Retailers: BIG downgraded to Underweight and OSTK cut to Neutral at Piper and lowering tgt prices to $7 and $19 respectively based on their industry view that demand for both home furnishings and mattresses has deteriorated since March and will likely remain challenged in the months ahead. DG upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus with $250 tgt saying with shares down 17% from their 52-week high and tight monetary policy hurting retailers that sell big ticket items, shares look relatively attractive over the next 12 months.

·     In Transports: In rails: CSX reported an adj EPS beat of 6% and beat on revenue was 3.8% ahead of consensus estimates. But Bernstein notes pricing headwind build to the year and the slow start in international intermodal has led the company to lower volume guidance. In truckers: earnings continue to disappoint as KNX with a miss for Q1 adj EPS $0.73 vs. est. $0.81; Q1 revs $1.64B vs. est. $1.61B and guides 2023 adj EPS $3.35-$3.55 vs. est. $3.85 – two analysts (DB, MSCO) noted negative revisions are being more than offset by multiple expansion. XPO upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan saying its board took a significant step to build credibility that XPO could in fact close the widening efficiency gap with peers.

·     In casinos and gaming (CZR, DKNG, BYD, PENN, MGM): Barclays said in Q1 preview they expect revenue-driven beats from both U.S. regionals and Las Vegas after a solid quarter for demand, as compared to relatively more modest expectations/investor sentiment throughout the quarter. In online travel: Barclays noted online travel stocks have been a mixed bag YTD with ABNB up 38%/32% compared to EXPE up 7%/2% and S&P 500 at +8%, attributing most of the outperformance to share gains during the pent-up demand post-Covid. In terms of fundamentals, they expect online travel names to see double digit y/y revenue and bookings growth, much higher than its advertising/e-commerce internet peers.

Stock GAINERS

·     EVCM +10%; after Reuters reported that the company is exploring a potential sale after garnering takeover interest. https://bit.ly/41oEXL0

·     HCA +5%; boosted its revenue forecast for the full year as sees FY EPS $17.25 to $18.55, vs. prior $16.40 to $17.60 and revs $62.5B-$64.5B from prior $61.5B-$63.5B after Q4 top and bottom line both top consensus expectations.

·     PG +3%; reports Q3 EPS $1.37 on sales $20.07B, topping the consensus of $1.32/$19.28B with organic growth +7% vs est. +4.1%.

·     PPG +3%; after mixed results as 1Q adj EPS $1.82 beat est. $1.54 though revs in-line and guides 2Q aggregate sales volume flat and adj EPS $2.05-2.15.

·     SAP +6%; forecast operating profit for the year that was ahead of analysts’ estimates after it announced job cuts and plans to refocus the company on its faster-growing cloud business. Operating profit will be EU8.6 billion to EU8.9 billion ($9.4B-$9.8B) for the year.

Stock LAGGARDS

·     ALV -5%; Q1 EPS $0.90 vs. est. $0.92 as net income fell to $74M from $83M a year ago; Operating cash flow swung to negative $46M from $70M, with free cash flow at negative $189M.

·     BIG -7%; downgraded to Underweight and OSTK cut to Neutral at Piper and lowering tgt prices to $7 and $19 respectively based on their industry view that demand for both home furnishings and mattresses has deteriorated.

·     EVBG -9%; said in 8-K it was notified of the termination of its contract with the Florida Division of Emergency Management (FDEM) one year early, effective June 30, 2023.

·     FCX -3%; Q1 results top consensus, but down sharply from same period a year ago as profit of $663M down from $1.53B y/y and sales fell to $5.39B from $6.6B (est. $5.21B) saying operations were disrupted by weather.

·     RF -1%; Q1 EPS $0.62 vs. est. $0.66; Q1 revs $2.0B vs. est. $1.97B; set aside $135M as provision for credit losses, compared to a benefit of $36M in the previous year; Total deposits fell 3% from the end of last year to $129.04B

·     SQM -8%; after Chile’s President Gabriel Boric said in a televised address Thursday that the government would take majority stakes in any new lithium production.