Mid-Morning Look

Monday, December 01, 2025

After posting solid gains last week for the S&P, Nasdaq, Dow and Russell 2000 in a bounce back week following a mixed November, U.S. stock markets opened Monday lower, especially in tech before paring losses. Wall Street returned from the Thanksgiving Day holiday with a “risk off” attitude, led by a renewed selloff in cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin hit lows below $85K) and hawkish comments from the BoJ weighed on sentiment/lifted Treasury yields. The Smallcap Russell 2000 underperforms large caps after surging 8.5% during the last 5-trading days on rising interest rate cut hopes. Gold rallied overnight before paring gains and silver jumped to a fresh peak amid ongoing supply tightness. Oil is higher after a key pipeline linking Kazakh fields to Russia’s Black Sea coast halted loading following an attack over the weekend. OPEC+ also reiterated a three-month plan to halt output hikes. Retailers in focus on this Cyber Monday and following strong results from Black Friday thus far. Adobe Analytics, which tracks e-commerce, said U.S. consumers spent a record $11.8B online Friday, marking a 9.1% jump from last year. It was a slight increase from the company’s spending estimate of $11.7B. Consumers also spent a record $6.4B online on Thanksgiving Day, per Adobe. Salesforce estimated that Black Friday online sales totaled $18B in the U.S. and $79B globally. A big week of software/tech earnings and delayed eco data being released. Markets also still waiting on the Fed next week as @Kalshi shows, “BREAKING: Odds of a 25 bps rate cut in December reach an all-time high of 90%.”

• ISM U.S. manufacturing activity index 48.2 in November (consensus 49.0) vs 48.7 in October while the prices paid index 58.5 in November (consensus 57.0) vs 58.0 in October; the employment index 44.0 in November vs 46.0 in October and the new orders index 47.4 in November vs 49.4 in October.

• In MLPs/Pipelines: TRGP said it will acquire Stakeholder Midstream for $1.25B in cash. Stakeholder provides natural gas gathering, treating, and processing services and crude gathering and storage services in the Permian Basin, including approximately 480 miles of natural gas pipelines, approximately 180 million cubic feet per day of cryogenic natural gas processing and sour treating capacity, carbon capture activities generating 45Q tax credits. EPD was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan as sees a balanced risk/reward at current share levels, noting the company’s EBITDA growth trails peers and cut MPLX to Neutral as well saying the stock’s outperformance in 2025 has left less room for upside relative to peers.
• Security Software: Big week for the sector with upcoming earnings in CRWD, OKTA, RBRK, NTSK, and Sentinel One (S), with Keybanc noting Security checks for the month of October were solid, though not great, and not as strong as September. The firm said they believe this makes the setup for the remaining off-quarter Security companies challenging as well. Its checks for all vendors were generally solid, similar to last quarter, and no material changes either way. ZS was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein saying narrative issues regarding 2026 annual recurring revenue guidance, is driving competition concerns.
• In Chinese Electric Vehicles (EVs): BYDDF November total sales volume 480,186 units and Nov production volume 474,175 units; LI said it delivered 33,181 vehicles in November 2025. As of November 30, 2025, Li Auto’s cumulative deliveries reached 1,495,969; company expects the monthly production capacity for Li i6 to reach 20,000 units by early next year and plans to release OTA 8.1 in early December 2025; NIO said 36,275 vehicles were delivered in November 2025, increasing by 76.3% y/y; 277,893 vehicles were delivered y/t/d in 2025, increasing by 45.6% y/y; Cumulative deliveries reached 949,457 as of November 30, 2025; XPEV announced it delivered 36,728 Smart EVs in November 2025, representing a y/y increase of 19%. From January to November 2025, XPENG’s cumulative deliveries reached 391,937 units, up 156% y/y.

• CSIQ +5%; after saying it is transferring the assets of its Chinese unit to Canadian ownership to safeguard sales into the US as Washington steps up scrutiny of imports from the Asian nation.
• KALA +39%; said it enters into $6M securities purchase agreement with investor David e. Lazar who is appointed as Kala’s CEO and Chairman; says is continuing to evaluate and redevelop Co’s product candidates while actively exploring strategic opportunities.
• LEG +14%; after SGI proposed to acquire all outstanding shares of the engineered products maker in an all-stock transaction valuing the target at $12 per share.
• NFE +12%; shares rise after regulators in Puerto Rico said late Friday, they had tentatively approved a contract with the embattled liquefied natural gas supplier, which has faced questions about its ballooning debt.
• ODFL +4%; was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital saying the company has maintaining industry-leading service levels, strong pricing power, and ample capacity to capture recovery during the freight recession.
• SNPS +4%; after announces a strategic partnership with NVDA as the chip maker has invested $2B in Synopsys stock at $414.79 per share. https://tinyurl.com/4w9t57ur
• WYNN +3%; casinos in China (WYNN, MGM, MLCO) higher, Macau’s gaming bureau reported that November gross revenue from games of fortune in the region was up 14.4% y/y to 21.088B patacas but was a 12.45% decline from October 2025’s record high of 24.08B patacas.

• COIN -3%; After a small rally late last week after tumbling more than 30% from October record highs above $126K, prices are down over -6% this morning to around $85K and dragging down crypto leveraged stocks COIN, MSTR, IBIT, BMNR as well as miners MARA, RIOT, IREN, CIFR, WULF.
• CPNG -5%; after saying a data leak hit roughly 33.7 million user accounts and faces an investigation by South Korean authorities that the potential penalty could reach about $770 million.
• JOBY -6%; was initiated at Sell rating and $10 tgt at Goldman Sachs saying despite its leadership in flight hours and certification, they see its operator model facing regulatory and capital challenges.
• MRNA -5%; Vaccine makers (MRNA, NVAX, BNTX, PFE) were weaker after FDA official, Vinay Prasad, ties 10 deaths to the shots, calls for stricter vaccine regulation, per STAT News. https://tinyurl.com/4vst9zbs
• ZS -3%; was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein saying narrative issues regarding 2026 annual recurring revenue guidance, is driving competition concerns.