Mid-Morning Look

Friday, December 05, 2025

U.S. stocks off to a good start this morning, as the S&P 500 looking for its 9^th win in last 10-days, led by S&P Technology sector as the XLK rises a 10^th straight day with major averages not far from record highs yet again. For every pullback markets have seen the past 2 years, investors have taken the opportunity to buy and continue to be rewarded (early November pullback latest example). Markets got a boost today as the delayed September PCE inflation data was reported right in-line with expectations for both headline and core, helping boost expectations of a Fed rate cut next Wednesday and keeps the door open to potential further cuts with inflation staying stable (though not falling). U.S. Natural gas futures surge 5% to 36-month high as extreme cold boosts heating demand and on near record gas flows to LNG export plants. No Fed speakers until next week’s FOMC meeting, broad market strength again with only utilities and healthcare lagging slightly. Overall, a strong day for U.S. stocks as the Dow Transports also make it a 10^th straight day of gains thus far. Top earnings related movers to upside and downside from overnight listed below.

• Sept overall PCE price index +0.3%, in-line with consensus +0.3% and the August reading while Y/y headline PCE rose  +2.8%, also in-line with consensus +2.8% and slightly above the August +2.7%.
• September core PCE price index rose +0.2%, in-line with consensus and August +0.2% reading while core PCE Y/Y rose +2.9%, slightly above consensus +2.8% and in-line with August +2.9%.
• University of Michigan surveys of consumers sentiment prelim Dec 53.3 above consensus 52.0 and vs final Nov 51.0; current conditions index prelim Dec 50.7 (consensus 51.3) vs final Nov 51.1 and the expectations index prelim Dec 55.0 (consensus 51.2) vs final Nov 51.0.
• University of Michigan surveys of consumers 1-year inflation outlook prelim Dec 4.1% vs final Nov 4.5% while the University of Michigan surveys of consumers 5-year inflation outlook prelim Dec 3.2% vs final Nov 3.4%.

• In Nuclear/SMR: OKLO unveiled up to $1.5B “at-the-market” equity offering program; OKLO initiated at Buy and $135 tgt at Needham reflecting its advantaged regulatory position, diversified fuel strategy, and one of the strongest commercial pipelines in advanced Nuclear. DOE authorization materially reduces FOAK timeline risk, while >$1.2B in liquidity supports multi-site execution. LEU was initiated with a Buy rating and $357 price target at Needham saying Centrus is moving from a profitable Low Enriched Uranium broker into “a strategic anchor of U.S. enrichment security.”
• In Oil stocks: BP was downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Bank America and SHEL cut to Neutral from Buy in oils as the firm cut its house Brent oil price forecast to $60/bbl. Bank America’s new forecasts still see downside to strip for crude, oil products as well as Natural gas. For Brent, sees a shallow trajectory almost flatlining around the lower end of its $60-80/bbl medium-term Brent forecast range across 2026-27 after “landing” below $60/bbl in Q126. TTE was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan citing greater conviction in Shell’s free cash flow profile and limited valuation differentiation for the downgrade of TotalEnergies.

• COO +7%; after the health-care company’s guidance for 2026 adjusted EPS topped the average analyst estimate; the company also launched a strategic review; FY26 EPS guidance came in above expectations and also raised its 3-year cumulative FCF target by 10% to $2.2B.
• IOT +16%; reported better 3Q results with all important metrics exceeding expectations handily and raised guidance while delivered its second consecutive Q of accelerating Y/Y NNARR growth, as well as its strongest Q/Q NNARR growth in 3 years.
• PRAX +40%; said it expects to submit to U.S. regulators a new drug application next year for its investigational drug to treat essential tremors; said it expects to submit its NDA early in 2026 after a preliminary meeting with the FDA regarding its drug Ulixacaltamide.
• RBRK +27%; shares jumped after Q3 ARR beat by $27M, consistent with last quarter, and FY26 guide raised $34M as strength was broad-based as legacy displacement bookings accelerated in the quarter, identity resilience customers doubled q/q, and Security contributed >40% to NRR (also raised guidance).
• ULTA +12%; shares rose as Q3 beat on sales, margin and earnings; posted comp sales growth of 6.3% (topping ests of 3.5%) driven by higher average ticket and increased transactions; EPS of $5.14 easily topped a Street forecast of $4.61 with better than expected sales and gross margins fueling the beat; also lifted FY25 (Jan. 2026) EPS expectations to $25.20-25.50 from $23.85–24.30 previously.
• VNDA +9%; after saying the FDA has lifted the partial clinical hold on protocol VP-VLY-686-3403, which until today limited the protocol to a maximum of 90 doses of Tradipitant. The lift followed Vanda’s formal dispute resolution request and an expedited re-review conducted by CDER leadership.
• VSCO +19%; shares jumped after a double beat, a huge margin beat and a significant full year guide in their Q3 earnings report; Q3 adj. EPS $(0.27) vs est $(0.59) on revs $1.47B vs $1.410B with same store & direct sales +7%, while adj gross margin 36.5% vs FS 34.1%; guides both Q4 EPS and revs above consensus.

• HPE -2%; shares fell after posted softer revenue driven by weaker Server and Hybrid Cloud revenue, offset partially by stronger Networking and better margins driven by mix and while they maintained their FY26 revenue guide, it’s at a slightly lower starting point given the FQ4 miss.
• OKLO -5%; after unveils up to $1.5 billion “at-the-market” equity offering program.
• NFLX -1%; is buying WBD studio + HBO assets in a cash and stock deal valuing Warner Brothers at about $82.7B EV, or $27.75 per share ($23.25 cash, $4.50 in NFLX shares) as the deal is expected to close 12 to 18 months after the Discovery Global spin, with $2B to $3B in cost saves and EPS accretion by year two.
• PSN -20%; shares declined after the Federal Aviation Administration and the Department of Transportation awarded the Brand New Air Traffic Control System contract to rival Peraton, under a project that received a $12.5B down payment under the One Big Beautiful Bill, the agencies reported.
• S -11%; reported a mixed 3QFY26, beating on the top and bottom line but issuing 4QFY26 guidance short of consensus revenue and margin expectations; overall mix of bookings was flat sequentially.
• SOFI -6%; after 54.5M share Spot Secondary priced at $27.50.
• SPWH -31%; shares tumbled after posting in-line Q3 results but flagged a demand downshift beginning mid-October and persisting into November, prompting a FY25 guidance cut (cuts FY25 adjusted EBITDA view to $22M-$26M from $33M-$45M) as the new outlook implies another promotional 4FQ that will pressure margins.