Mid-Morning Look

Tuesday, December 09, 2025

U.S. stocks are little changed, a very narrow trading range to start the day as traders are awaiting the Fed’s next interest rate decision on Wednesday afternoon. The market is pricing in 89% odds of a 25-basis-point cut, according to the CME FedWatch tool. This would be the third rate cut of the year. S&P sectors are mostly higher on better market breadth than Monday as Energy, Financials, Utilities outperform early and the XLX Technology sector looks to make it a 12^th straight daily advance. Gold rose as traders remained optimistic ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, while Spot Silver hits record high of $59.71 an ounce. JOLTS job openings were better this morning as number of quits plunges to 5 year low. It’s all about the FOMC as forecast revisions are expected with the FOMC statement, likely show boosts for the GDP forecasts, trimmings for the inflation estimates, a narrowing in the jobless rate forecasts, and a trimming in the near-term Fed funds rate forecasts.

• Sept leading economic indicators -0.3%, in-line with consensus -0.3%.

• In Cruise lines: NCLH was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman Sachs with a price target of $21, down from $23; VIK was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman (tgt to $78 from $66) in cruise lines. The firm said they expect cruise stocks to face short-term yield pressure in 1H26 due to Caribbean oversupply, with recovery expected in 2H. Long-term fundamentals remain strong, but competition is a key risk.
• In Home Furnishing/Improvement Retail: HD shares slipped after backs FY25 adjusted EPS view, down -15% from $15.24 and backs FY25 revenue view up 3% and FY25 comparable sales view up slightly; guides FY26 adjusted EPS flat to up 4%, FY26 revenue up 2.5%-4.5% and FY26 comparable sales flat to up 2%. For Wayfair (W), Jefferies noted after 17 months of traffic from paid search falling as a % of total site visits, October is +200 bps y/y and November is +250 bps y/y. The firm said the data leads them to reaffirm ad spend as a % of sales slightly above the midpoint of 4Q guidance vs. investors positioned at a level toward 11%.
• In Food & Beverages Sector: CPB reported Q1 EPS beat and sales of $2.68B just above the $2.66B estimate on steady demand as consumers increasingly opt to eat at home while maintains its annual sales and profit forecasts as sees year EPS to decline up to 18% to between $2.40-$2.55 and sales in the range of flat to decline of 2%. PEP announced certain commercial and financial priorities to enhance shareholder value, saying they would aggressively reduce costs to drive growth after weeks of discussions with activist investor Elliott Investment Management. VITL will replace HSII in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the opening of trading on Thursday, December 11.

• ARES +6%; will replace Kellanova (K) in the S&P 500 effective prior to the open of trading on Thursday, December 11 as Mars Inc. is acquiring Kellanova in a deal expected to close soon.
• CVS +4%; raises 2025 adjusted profit forecast to $6.60-$6.70 per share from previous outlook of $6.55-$6.65 while forecasts 2026 adjusted profit in the range of $7.00-$7.20 per share vs analysts’ average estimate of $7.16 and expects total revenue of at least $400 billion next year, below analysts’ average estimate of $419.26 billion.
• GIII +5%; shares rallied after the Donna Karan parent posted Q3 EPS beat (on sales miss) and guided 2026 adj EPS $2.80-$2.90 above the prior range of $2.55-$2.75 while now expects a $65M unmitigated impact from tariffs in fiscal 2026, lower from the $75M estimated earlier.
• MAMA +14%; shares rose after Q3 adj Ebitda, $3.8M topped est. $2.65M on better revs $47.3M vs. est. $43.2M; said secured new tier-one national placements at Target and Food Lion.
• SEZL +5%; will replace VTLE in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the opening of trading on Monday, December 15 as S&P SmallCap 600 constituent CRGY is acquiring Vital Energy in a deal expected to close soon.
• STAA +13%; as ALC announces amended merger agreement with STAA as new terms include an increase in acquisition price and reductions in payments to executives as Alcon to purchase Staar shares for $30.75 per share in cash – purchase price increase represents an additional approximately $150 million in equity value for stockholders.
• TROX +18%; shares jumped after saying they receives coordinated, non-binding and conditional Letters of Interest (LOI) from Export Finance Australia and U.S. Export-Import Bank for up to $600M; says it is to support the development of Tronox’s rare earth supply chain, including mine extensions, infrastructure support and cracking and leaching capacity.
• VOR +12%; was initiated Overweight and $43 price target at JP Morgan saying its autoimmune disease drug, Telitacicept, licensed from China’s RemeGen is considered “highly de-risked across a range of indications” due to strong late-stage data from China.
• XCUR +62%; shares jumped after saying 90% of patients with multiple myeloma who were undergoing stem cell treatment and received doses of burixafor, in combination with certain other treatments, achieved the primary endpoint of the study. The treatment was effective even for participants who had previously received daratumumab.

• CAL -13%; after Q3 net income of $1.4M was down -96.5% y/y while revs rise 6.6% y/y to $790M vs. est. $759M as Stuart Weitzman acquisition boosts revenue but pressures earnings; also guides FY25 EPS $1.15-$1.25 ex Stuart Weitzman which is well below consensus of $1.73 and said sees continued tariff pressure on margins/earnings.
• GPK -6%; shares fell as announced that Robbert Rietbroek has been appointed President and CEO and as a director of the company, effective January 1, 2026; cuts FY25 adjusted EPS view to $1.75-$1.95 from $1.80-$2.00 and FY25 adjusted EBITDA view to $1.38B-$1.43B from $1.4B-$1.45B; implements cost and production optimization initiatives.
• GPRK -9%; after Parex Resources halted discussions with the company regarding its proposed acquisition.
• PHR -19%; as reported better Q3 results on top and bottom line but lowered its organic growth guidance on a more measured Network Solutions outlook.
• SLM -17%; was downgraded at Morgan Stanley after the firm noted the company’s transition to partnership model & expense ramp set to drive larger near-term headwind to EPS than expected. Morgan Stanley noted the expense ramp (implied +16% Y/y growth if MSCO considers “Year 1” to be 2026) was meaningfully higher than it was thinking.
• TOL -2%; reported mixed Q4 results as EPS of $4.58 missed est. $4.88 but revs $3.42B topped est. $3.32B; Q4 Backlog value was $5.5B vs. $6.5B at FY 2024’s Q4 end and homes in backlog were 4,647 compared to 5,996; company forecast Fy26 EPS with a midpoint of $12.36 vs. est. $13.83.