Mid-Morning Look

Thursday, February 13, 2025

U.S. stocks continue to push higher in the face of various headwinds, as all eleven S&P sectors rise early (Consumer Discretionary, materials and Tech leading) despite more tariff headlines from President Trump and a second day of “hotter” inflation readings, lowering expectations of Fed rate cuts soon. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday was sharply higher, pressuring stock markets initially before shaking off concerns and paring losses. Similar set up today as the Producer Price Index (PPI) also came in above last month and consensus, but this time markets showed zero concern at all. Treasury yields pared yesterday’s gains despite the PPI reading (10-yr to 4.55%, off 4.65% highs the day prior) while the dollar slid. Markets attention instead has been on earnings (370 of 500 S&P companies having reported thus far), news from President Trump on Ukraine/Russia war as he tries to broker a peace deal, and market momentum as major averages path of least resistance remains to the upside despite rising Treasury yields, and potential tariff impacts. Donald Trump agreed in a phone call with Russian President Putin to start negotiations about Ukraine, sparking optimism about a possible end to the war. The news lifted shares of European markets overnight as well as the euro which rose and the dollar weakened, reflecting more appetite for risk as traders focused on the Ukraine talks. The Stoxx 600 rises and is on course for another record close as is the German DAX.

• Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 213,000 from 220,000 prior week (and est. 215K); the 4-week moving average fell to 216,000 from 217,000 prior week; continued claims fell to 1.850M from 1.886M prior week (vs. est. 1.88M) and the US insured unemployment rate unchanged at 1.2%.

• In Utilities: several earnings out as AEP reported Q4 EPS in-line while revs of $4.7B misses the $4.9B estimate and backs its FY EPS view of $5.75-$5.95; DUK similar results as EPS mostly in-line while revs $7.36B misses the $7.65B estimate while introducing 2025 adj EPS view of $6.17-$6.42, vs. consensus $6.33; DTE Q4 EPS $1.51 tops the $1.44 estimate and guides FY operating EPS $7.09-$7.23 vs. est. $7.20; PPL Q4 ongoing EPS $0.34 vs. misses est. $0.38 on revs $2.21B, vs. est. $2.08B, while forecasts 2025 ongoing EPS $1.75 to $1.87 (est. $1.83) and boosts capital plan to $20B from 2025 through 2028.
• In Healthcare: CYTK upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley as believes investor concerns are now better understood, and the stock’s risk/reward is skewed to the upside. GMAB upgraded from Market Perform to Outperform at Leerink with a longer-term view beyond the near-term JNJ opt-in decision for GEN3014 (HexabodyCD38). Leerink continues to believe it is unlikely that JNJ will opt-in. WST shares fell as Q4 EPS and sales topped consensus views but guides 2025 adj profit between $6.00-$6.20 per share, well below the consensus estimate of $7.44 and sees 2025 sales between $2.88B-$2.91B vs. est. $3.04B. Vaccine names, MRNA, PFE, BNTX, NVAX were on watch as well as food companies as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. confirmation vote to become U.S. secretary of Health and Human Services with the Senate is scheduled for today.

• APP +33%; after forecasting Q1 revenue and profit above estimates ($1.36B-$1.39B vs. est. $1.35B) and posted Q4 results that beat estimates, boosted by a 73% rise in advertising segment’s revenue; also guides Q1 adj EBITDA $855M-$885M vs estimates of $818.6M; said plans to sell its mobile gaming business to a privately held company for a $900 million cash and stock deal.
• BROS +31%; shares surged on Q4 results (revs +34.9% y/y) and commentary highlighted comp store sales (+9.5%) & traffic strength, considerable margin & earnings upside, and confidence in strategic plans.
• CROX +18%; reported Q4 sales and profit that topped consensus expectations and issued stronger-than-anticipated annual forecasts for both metrics; upsizes share buyback authorization by $1B; posts Q4 revs $990M vs. est. $961.92M driven by outperformance in North American business as well as growth in China.
• HOOD +14%; posted a nice Q424 w/ revenue, EBITDA, and EPS upside (EPS of $1.01 above its $0.45 forecast and consensus of $0.46), expenses were 2% below consensus, despite the strong revenue beat, while trading volume and gross fees/rebates positively surprised.
• IVAC +19%; to be acquired by STX, with shareholders to receive $4 per share.
• MGM +13%; Q4 EBITDA handily beat Street by +4%, driven Regionals and Macau, while Vegas was in-line with the Street but good enough given tough comp concerns; Mgmt highlighted a strong Jan and Q1 Las Vegas outlook (outside of the Super Bowl) and noted it expects to grow in 2025.
• SONY +8%; after raising its operating profit forecast for the year by 2% to 1.34 trillion Yen ($8.70B) as it reported strong growth at its key gaming unit; profit at the gaming business grew 37% in the October-December quarter.
• TAP +5%; Q4 EPS and revs beat analysts’ expectations and forecast of FY sales growth is in contrast to analysts’ estimate of a decline saying its EMEA and APAC segments, as well as Canada performed strongly

• DE -3%; reported Q1 EPS $3.19 vs. est. $3.11 (but down from $6.23 y/y); Q1 revs fell -30% y/y to $8.51B but above the consensus est. $7.89B; is now expecting sales at its production and precision agriculture division to fell 15% to 20% in FY25, expects small ag & turf sales to fall 10%, and for construction and forestry sales to fell 10% to 15%.
• FSLY -24%; as 4Q revenue grew 2% in line with the Street as was EBITDA margins, but a 100bps miss and beat respectively versus estimates; Q4 adjusted EPS loss (-$0.03) vs. est. 0c; Q4 revs $140.58M vs. est. $138.63M; sees FY25 adjusted EPS loss (15c)-(9c) vs. consensus $0.03.
• HBI -16%; posts Q4 net sales of $888.4M below consensus expectations of $950.3M on weaker sales guidance for year to $3.47B-$3.52B vs. est. $3.66B and said CEO will depart at the end of 2025 or announced successor.
• RDDT -7%; delivered a strong Q4 revenue print and Q1 guide relative to street expectations, though US DAUqs came in ~7% below, as a Google algorithm change reduced traffic to the site toward the end of the Q4
• TTD -31%; Q1 revenue forecast falls short of estimates on softer demand for its digital advertising services in the connected TV market; Q4 revenue also misses estimates, the first top-line miss for the company in at least five years, due to several execution missteps, mainly from its sales reorg and a slower-than-expected rollout of Kokai.
• TXG -7%; reported revenue in-line with their prelim 4Q24 announcement back in mid-January. FY25 revenue guidance to be in the range of $610mn-$630mn (vs. est. $632mn). Management expects a ($7mn) headwind associated with NIH funding concerns.
• ZTS -10%; as forecasts for 2025 adj. profit per share to be between $6.00-$6.10, below the analysts’ estimate of $6.29 and guides revenue to be between $9.23B-$9.38B below est. of $9.57B.