Mid-Morning Look

Thursday, February 24, 2022

U.S. stocks open significantly weaker, with major averages down for a 5^th straight day (S&P) while the tech heavy Nasdaq Comp falls a 6^th straight day as global stock market focus remains 100% on the Ukraine situation after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a military operation in the country, invading the country claiming it’s intended to protect civilians. Stocks fell (but well-off lows as investors buy the dip), while the prices of oil, gold and government bonds jumped after Russian missiles and airstrikes hit Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, and more than a dozen other cities across the country. Brent crude oil topped $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014 while Natural-gas futures in Europe surged 40% and prices for aluminum and nickel, two metals of which Russia is a major producer, rose to their highest levels in about a decade. U.S. data showed weekly jobless claims fall; fourth-quarter GDP growth revised slightly up along with inflation PCE data. The 2-yr yield slides 10bps back under 1.5%, the 10-yr down 5 bps to 1.90%; the 5-yr down 6 bps to 1.82% as investors rotate into have assets. U.S. rate futures imply a 16.5% chance of 50 basis-point Fed hike in wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, from about 30% on Wednesday. Tons of earnings results overnight/this morning, but macro picture driving stocks early. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) rose to the highest level in over 15 months above 37 but has since pared gains. The U.S. dollar posted strong gains vs. the euro, while Bitcoin tumbles overnight to around $35K.

Economic Data

·     Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 232K from 249K in prior week and vs. est. 235K; the 4-week moving average fell to 236,250 from 243,500 prior week; continued claims fell to 1.476M from 1.588M prior week (est. 1.58M) and U.S. insured Unemployment Rate unchanged at 1.1%

·     U in-line with ests and vs. prior 6.9% reading; final sales +2.0% vs. est. 1.9%; Q4 business investment +3.1% vs. est. +2.0%; Q4 consumer spending +3.1% vs. est. +3.3%; Q4 exports +23.6% (prior +24.5 pct), imports +17.6% pct (prior +17.7%); inflation data shows Q4-P GDP deflator +7.2% vs. est. +6.9% and PCE index +6.3% vs. est. 6.4%; PCE Core +5% vs. est. 4.9%

Stock GAINERS

·     CRWD +4%; as cyber-security stocks outperform early – OKTA, PANW, ZS, CYBR

·     LYV +5%; Guggenheim noted co reported 4Q AOI of $160mm, compared to $108mm forecast, driven by stronger-than-anticipated demand at Ticketing and Sponsorship/Advertising primarily from the U.S. and U.K markets

·     MAPS +16%; 4Q sales that were 6% ahead of FactSet consensus and set a more constructive tone compared as set the high end of CY22 sales guidance ($255-265Mn) 3% ahead of consensus

·     MRNA +7%; beat Q4 EPS and revs as its COVID-19 vaccine brought in nearly $7 billion in product sales during the final three months of the year

·     MRO ; energy stocks jumping initially amid the spike in WTI crude to around $100 per barrel, but group now mixed on profit taking

·     NOC +2%; defense stocks such as LHX, RTX, GD, NOC, LMT among biggest winners amid the increased conflict in Ukraine with Russia

·     SJI +40%; entered an agreement to be acquired by the Infrastructure Investments Fund, a private vehicle, in a deal with an enterprise value of about $8.1 billion. Under the term of the deal, IIF will pay $36 for each SJI share owned

Stock LAGGARDS

·     BABA -4%; Q3 revenue rose about 10% to 242.6B yuan from 246.37B yuan y/y, its slowest-ever increase in quarterly revenue since going public in 2014

·     EBAY -6%; after in-line Q4 revs of $2.61B, while qtrly gross merchandise value (GMV) was down 10% y/y to $20.7B and guides Q1 revs $2.43B-$2.48B missing the $2.62B estimate

·     GCI -10%; forecast revenue for 2022 of $3.07B-$3.16B, implying a 1.5%-4.3% decline from its 2021 revenue, and said it won’t see “sustained revenue growth” until 2024

·     LMND -4%; tumbles over 20% overnight before paring losses after weaker Q1 and full-year guidance, as well as missing Q4 earnings consensus estimate

·     MNKD -15%; shares slide as the U.S. FDA extends deadline for completing review of application for new drug until May

·     NTAP -10%; as gross margin outlook of 64.0%, down from 67.3% a year ago pressures the stock in the near term

·     RCII 18%; EPS miss, weak guidance as headwinds on consumer discretionary income from elevated rates of inflation and the wind down of government pandemic financial relief weigh

·     SKLZ -29%; missed and guided 2022 well below expectations

·     SNBR ; big miss and falling despite the recent TPX move lower as company blamed not be able to ship given supply chain and said end market demand remains strong

·     YNDX -52%; after Russia/Ukraine headlines