Mid-Morning Look

Monday, June 05, 2023

U.S. stocks opened higher, continuing their torrid advance with the S&P 500 rising as much as 20% now from the October lows, setting to enter Bull market territory, led by a new record high for tech bellwether Apple (AAPL) ahead of its annual WWDC keynote presentation later today at 1:00 PM ET. The S&P 500 index failed just shy of the 4,300 level this morning after rising again last week and the Nasdaq comes into the trading week up 6-straght weeks. Treasury yields tumbled after mixed economic data (weaker ISM Services data and Factory Orders, but also slowing inflation data points in prices paid). Global markets also rip-roaring as Japan’s NIKKEI hits 32,000 a 33-year high. Smallcaps (IWM) no follow through from Fridays outperformance, been sliding since the open now the 200d below at $179.80 (broke above on Friday) after rising 4.6% the last 2-days. Energy stocks and oil prices move higher initially after Saudi Arabia unveiled an extra 1 million barrel-a-day oil supply cut in July at its OPEC+ meeting this weekend to support the market, but prices have pulled back since the open. Financials a drag early after the WSJ reported large US lenders may face a 20% increase in capital requirements in the aftermath of the collapse of regional banks. Morgan Stanley bearish strategist Mike Wilson said today “we still expect a meaningful earnings recession this year…we lower our base case 2023 earnings forecast from US$195 to US$185 (17% below consensus) but have not changed our base case S&P 500 target for end-2023, which remains 3,900.” Markets again stabilized by strength in large cap tech with AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, NFLX, AMD, MSFT, META trading higher early (helping S&P and Nasdaq). 

Economic Data

·     ISM non-manufacturing for May 50.3 vs. 51.9 in April and est. 52.2; business activity index 51.5 in May vs 52.0 in April; prices paid index 56.2 in May vs 59.6 in April; non-manufacturing new orders index 52.9 in May vs 56.1 in April; employment index 49.2 in May vs 50.8 in April.

·     April factory orders rose +0.4% vs. est. +0.8% and vs March +0.6%; April factory orders ex-transportation -0.2% vs March -1.0%; factory orders ex-defense -0.4% vs March +0.5%.

·     May S&P Global Composite PMI reported at 54.3 vs. est. 54.5 and prior 53.4; May S&P Global Services PMI at 54.9 vs. est. 55.1 and prior 53.6.

Stock GAINERS

·     AAPL +1%; trades new all-time highs, topping $183 ahead of annual WWDC keynote presentation later today at 1:00 PM ET.

·     AMED +14%; said received an unsolicited proposal from Optum to acquire all the outstanding shares of its common stock in an all-cash transaction for $100 per share and believes could be considered “superior” to the buyout deal already agreed on with OPCH in early May https://tinyurl.com/3xz77abe

·     CIR +49%; after KKR agreed to acquire the company for $1.6B, including the assumption of debt, paying CIR shareholders $49 per share or 55% premium to Friday. https://tinyurl.com/2vvj6ykp

·     DAWN +12%; as reported positive data from registrational mid-stage trial for its investigational monotherapy Tovorafenib for a type of brain tumor, as data shows overall response rate of 67% and clinical benefit rate of 93% in 69 patients.

·     FHTX +10%; after saying the FDA late last week lifted clinical hold on early-stage dose escalation study of blood cancer drug FHD-286; health regulator last year had placed a full clinical hold on the trial, months after a partial hold due to one death.

·     IMGN +6%; said its experimental ovarian cancer therapy when compared to chemotherapy showed 35% reduction in the risk of death or length of time the disease does not get worse during and after the treatment in a late-stage study.

·     PANW +4%; to replace DISH in S&P 500 at open on 6/20

·     XEL +2%; among top movers in the S&P as utility stocks among sector leaders.

Stock LAGGARDS

·     BLPH -84%; said its phase 3 rebuild study of INOpulse to treat fibrotic interstitial lung disease failed to meet its primary endpoint.

·     EL -2%; downgraded from Outperform to Perform at Oppenheimer saying based on its work, it now sees a less favorable risk/reward scenario.

·     EPAM -14%; after lowered its Q2 and 2023 profit and sales outlook due to a further deterioration in the near-term demand environment.

·     MNK -22%; after Friday night’s WSJ article reporting that the drugmaker is considering once again filing for bankruptcy.

·     NET -3%; after UBS initiates with a Sell Rating and Price Target of $55 following the 70% rally in May, saying investors are pricing in too much near-term AI benefit.

·     RCUS -7%; after mid stage study w GILD showed declined benefit in reducing disease progression in the treatment of a type of lung cancer, as per new interim data.