Mid-Morning Look

Wednesday, June 10, 2020

U.S. equities opened higher for tech and flat for other averages but have quickly come under pressure, with the Dow sinking over 300 points and the Nasdaq pulling back below the 10K level after initially setting new all-time highs (for a 4^th straight day) with shares of AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, NVDA, FB all touching new records as well with large cap tech leading again (Nasdaq traded as high as 10,027).The move lower in stocks comes ahead of the FOMC rate decision and press conference from Fed Chairman Powell this afternoon (2:00 PM and 2:30 PM respectively), with the bulk of the declines coming from financials, energy and the momentum related sectors such as travel, leisure, and retail. Restaurant stocks pressured following company update from SBUX and weaker results from RRGB. Industrial and Material stocks also seeing early weakness as defensive sectors hold steady. The U.S. dollar on track for its 10^th straight day of declines while Treasury prices rise a 3^rd day (yields lower). Oil prices slip and gold prices rebound further as traders’ position themselves ahead of the FOMC decision where no changes to rates or programs are expected but is expected to see economic projections which will likely be dire. 

Economic Data

·     Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May fell (-0.1%) vs. estimate unchanged (last month (-0.8%) and core prices (ex: food & energy) MoM was also down (-0.1%) vs. est. unchanged (last month (-0.4%); May real earnings all private workers +0.5% vs. April +5.9%; YoY CPI rose 0.1% vs. est. 0.3% and core CPI YoY rose 1.2% vs. est. 1.3%

Sector Movers Today

·     Autos; TRUE rises after B Riley upgraded shares to buy saying there is the loss of partner USAA – which accounted for 28% of units – but stock is already discounting that headwind; NIO files to sell 60M American depositary shares; TSLA tgt raised from $800 to $1000 at Wedbush as believe that the China growth story is worth at least $300 per share as this EV penetration is set to ramp significantly over the next 12 to 18 months; also on TSLA, company memo notes CEO Musk said that it is time to bring its Semi commercial truck to “volume production”; Ford (F) & Volkswagen to collaborate on three commercial vehicles and expect to produce up to combined 8 million of the three models, according to statement; GNTX tgt to $31 from $28 at Guggenheim with investor focus on auto suppliers shifting away from COVID-19 production disruption / liquidity risks and towards 2021 earnings power; HTZ received a letter from the staff of NYSE regulation that it had determined to commence proceedings to delist. The company appealed and requested a hearing. At this time, the common stock will continue to be listed and trade; UBER shares slipped after CNBC’s David Faber said looks to be exiting deal talks with GRUB, while the WSJ reported Just Eat nears all-stock deal to acquire GrubHub

·     Retailers; CHWY reported strong Q1 results, topping estimates while Q2 and year sales views also above views noting coronavirus-related pantry stocking is a one-time benefit/net adds 1.56M in Q1 (more than double the avg pace), bringing active customers to 15M; CHS posted Q1 EPS loss with sales down -46% YoY to $280.3M and gross margin 4% vs. 36.9% YoY; GME posts Q1 in line with prior pre-announce as sales slightly worse along with in-line Ebitda but says aggressively guiding to positive adj EBITDA for 2020; GES Q1 EPS loss ($1.81) on sales down 52% YoY to $260.3M and says based on trends, it currently expects Q2 revenues to have a decrease similar to that of Q1; FIVE posts Q1 sales below estimates and wider-than-expected loss, but analysts raise tgts (Gugg, RBC, CSFB) noting weakness unsurprising as 1Q comps declined (51.8%) as GM/SG&A took a hit from fixed cost deleverage due to the sales impact of store closures

·     Asset managers out with monthly Assets under Management (AUM) metrics: AB preliminary assets under management increased 3.5% to $596 billion during May 2020 from $576 billion at the end of April; APAM AUM as of May 31 totaled $114.4B; IVZ preliminary month-end assets under management (AUM) of $1,142.5 billion, an increase of 2.1% versus previous month-end; LM preliminary assets under management of $780.2B as of May 31, 2020. This month’s AUM included long-term net inflows of $0.4B, driven by fixed income and alternative net inflows of $0.7B and $0.1B, respectively, partially offset by equity net outflows of $0.4B; WDR assets under management of $64 billion; May net flows -$302 million; TROW preliminary AUM $1.19T at May 31, up 11% YoY; CNS reports preliminary AUM $63.8B as of May 31, an increase of $1.7B from assets under management at April 30

·     Transports; airlines slip a second day following massive run-up in shares off March lows as UAL downgraded to neutral from overweight at JPMorgan which also downgraded JBLU to underweight from neutral as do not believe the current pace of equity ascent can be potentially maintained for much longer; in trucking, Loop Capital upgraded MRTN to buy from hold and raise tgt to $27 noting shares have underperformed the truck group and the S&P 500 over the past month, offering an attractive potential return to his price objective

·     Internet; AMZN, FB add to record all-time highs; EBAY upgraded to Hold as believe EBAY’s GMV will benefit from the shift to online spending/also faces easy GMV comparisons throughout 2020, possesses tailwinds to revenue from payments/advertising, and has relatively low expectations; AMZN is introducing a new digital credit line for merchants based in the U.S., CNBC reports, and will receive targeted invitations from Goldman’s Marcus brand for credit lines of up to $1M; GRPN announces a 1 for 20 reverse stock split

Stock GAINERS

·     ABBV +2%; and Genmab A/S said they will jointly develop and commercialize three of Genmab’s early-stage investigational bispecific antibody product candidates and form a discovery research collaboration

·     AMD +4%; outperforms for a second day in the semiconductor sector along with gains in big tech across the board early (AMZN, NVDA, FB)

·     FIVE +11%; posts Q1 sales below estimates and wider-than-expected loss, but analysts raise tgts (Gugg, RBC, CSFB) noting weakness unsurprising as 1Q comps declined (51.8%) as GM/SG&A took a hit from fixed cost deleverage due to the sales impact of store closures

·     LAKE +46%; as reported revenues of $45.6M, which significantly beat high estimate of $39.5M (est. $27.8M) with strength seen across all geographies/inventory drawdown of $6.8M

·     NK +15%; rises following the publication of two peer-reviewed manuscripts in the Journal of Immunotherapy of Cancer based on invitro and in-vivo studies conducted in collaboration with the National Cancer Institute

Stock LAGGARDS

·     DNLI -6%; will pause clinical studies with DNL747, which it is collaborating with SNY following results from Phase 1b studies of the molecule in Alzheimer’s disease and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

·     EB -16%; after announcing a convertible senior notes offering

·     HTZ -15%; as received a letter from the staff of NYSE regulation that it had determined to commence proceedings to delist. The company appealed and requested a hearing. At this time, the common stock will continue to be listed and trade

·     NCLH -17%; as the pullback in cruise lines and airlines extend into a second day following the massive surge over the last few weeks

·     RRGB -6%; posted a Q1 comp sales figure down -21% as overall revs fell -25% YoY to $306.1M and EPS loss ($6.66). op margins 8.8% vs. 18.3% YoY

·     SBUX -4%; said it estimates 3Q consolidated revenue decline attributable to COVID-19 to be approximately $3.0B-$3.2B and sees Q3 preliminary adj EPS loss 55c-70c and said May comp sales were down (-43%) in May

·     TCO -24%; after SPG terminated its deal to buy TCO after Simon said TCO breached its obligations (deal was previously announced in February for $52 per share in $6.4B deal)

·     VRNT -9%; following earnings and after management said customers delayed planned projects in April due to the pandemic

·     WFC -6%; after saying it expects full-year interest income down more than 11%, and Q2 loan-loss reserve will be bigger than Q1, while noting Q2 expenses will be lower sequentially

Syndicate:

·     Aptiv (APTV) 13.174M share Secondary priced at $75.91

·     Brigham Minerals (MNRL) 6.6M share Spot Secondary priced at $13.75

·     Cardiovascular Systems (CSII) 3.676M share Spot Secondary priced at $34.00

·     Immunic (IMUX) 2.18M share Spot Secondary priced at $11.40

·     Mesa Labs (MLAB) 600K share Secondary priced at $225.00

·     Pluralsight (PS) 11.71M share Secondary priced at $19.50

·     Scorpio Bulkers (SALT) 4.1M share Spot Secondary priced at $18.46