Mid-Morning Look

Tuesday, June 29, 2021

Stocks are trading in a narrow range as the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq set new all-time highs briefly, getting a boost by big U.S. banks, and improving confidence in the economic backdrop while the Fed remains accommodative on rates and asset purchases despite fears of rising inflationary pressures. A spike in COVID-19 cases in Asia and Europe put a dent into the reopen trade yesterday (cruise lines, airlines, theme parks, casinos), but helped today amid strong economic data in the form of Consumer Confidence and strong housing data (CaseShiller – highest YoY reading since data began as per CNBC). Major averages are little changed early ahead of the holiday weekend, with all eyes on the monthly jobs report on Friday. The dollar jumps, sending gold prices lower while oil rebounds. Crypto currency assets rebound a second day led by a 4% pop in Bitcoin above $36K.

Economic Data

·     June consumer confidence index surged to 127.3 from May revised 120 level and well above the consensus 119.0; the present situation index 157.7 in June vs May revised 148.7 (previous 144.3); the expectations index 107.0 in June vs May revised 100.9 (previous 99.1)

·     April FHFA House Price Index rose +1.8% vs. +1.2% consensus and +1.4% prior, and on a YoY basis, rose +15.7% vs. +13.9% prior

·     S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data showed: HPI Composite: -20 (S.A.) +1.6% M/M vs. +1.2% consensus, +1.6% prior; HPI Composite 20 (N.S.A.) +2.1% M/M vs. +1.7% prior, and HPI Composite – 20 (N.S.A.) +14.6% Y/Y vs. +13.5% consensus, +13.3% prior

Sector Movers Today

·     Bank movers; several large cap banks announcing stock buyback plans and dividend hikes following last weeks Fed stress test results (all 23 banks had passed); BAC said it would increase its dividend to $0.21 a share from $0.18 (previously approved buyback), GS raised its dividend to $2.00 a share from $1.25 (no new buyback); JPM ups dividend to $1 a share from 90c (had announced $30B share repurchase plan in Dec); PNC boosts its quarterly cash dividend by 9% to $1.25 and plans to reinstate its share repurchase program for up to $2.9B; MS with 100% increase of its quarterly dividend from $0.35 to $0.70 and stock buyback of $12B; WFC doubled its dividend to $0.20 from $0.10 (but still down from $0.51 before the pandemic and said it expects to buy back $18 billion of stock over the next four quarters; Citi (C) the lone megabank not to increase its dividend, keeping it unchanged at 51c, but left the door open for an increase and didn’t announce a new buyback plan

·     Transports; XPO 5M share Secondary priced at $138.00; CSX upgraded to Buy at Citigroup saying as peak growth concerns may linger, we believe it makes sense to focus on the US rails (NSC, UNP, CSX), which should have multiple tailwinds into 2022; in trucking sector, Truist lowers tgts for ARCB, ECHO, SAIA, LSTR and reiterate Buy ratings for ARCB, ECHO, and SAIA as think there’s upside potential to ests due to record demand trends and valuations remains attractive even with decelerating EPS growth expected for 2022

·     Utilities & Solar; CSIQ has been awarded 86 MWP in Japan’s 8th solar energy auction; SRE raised its FY adj EPS view to $7.75-8.35 from $7.50-8.10 and now expects FY22 EPS $8.10-8.70; SWX said its Centuri Group subsidiary agrees to acquire installation and repair services provider Riggs Distler & Co. for $855M in cash; ENPH launches Encharge® battery storage system in Germany; STEM at Outperform with a $48 PT at Credit Suisse as it benefits from a strong and growing battery storage market, a capital–light, software-based business model, and market leadership in behind the meter (BTM); Mizuho raised their price target on FE to $37 from $33 to account for current market multiples

Stock GAINERS

·     BA +1%; rebounds after leading the Dow lower on Monday after UAL announces its largest-ever aircraft order and the biggest by a single carrier in a decade, for 270 narrow-body jetliners from Boeing and Airbus worth more than $30B

·     CERE +91%; after reporting positive topline results for CVL-231 in its Phase 1b clinical trial in patients with schizophrenia. Both doses demonstrated a clinically and statistically significant improvement in PANSS score

·     HOLI +3%; after CPE Funds Management, Ace Lead Profits and the company’s former CEO started solicitation of consents from shareholders to acquire the company by offering $17.10 a share

·     MRNA +5%; trades at all-time highs after saying an in-vitro study analyzing the sera of people who have received its COVID-19 vaccine had neutralizing antibody titers that protect against infection with several variants, including the worrisome Delta variant.

·     MS +3%; with 100% increase of its quarterly dividend from $0.35 to $0.70 and announces stock buyback of $12B

·     SND +6%; reaches settlement with USWS after it won a favorable verdict in a dispute on June 4^th and will receive $35M as part of settlement

·     TXT +3%; upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley with $87 tgt as see upside in its business jet portfolio and optionality in the growth of the urban air mobility/eVTOL (electric vertical take-off and landing) industry

Stock LAGGARDS

·     C -1%; was the lone megabank not to increase its dividend, keeping it unchanged at 51c, but left the door open for an increase and didn’t announce a new buyback plan

·     DMAC 34%; after posting mixed results in kidney disease study

·     FOXA -2%; downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Guggenheim as the company made modest adjustments to models for it and DIS to better reflect current outlook

·     LAZR -3%; 9M share Spot Secondary priced at $22.00

·     MDWD -28%; said it received a Complete Response Letter (CRL) from the FDA regarding the Biologics License Application seeking approval of NexoBrid for eschar removal in adults with deep partial-thickness and/or full-thickness thermal burns

·     PRPL -7%; withdraws full-year forecast based on updated Q2 results and the impact of production challenges in Q3; said it sees Q2 revs $175M-$185M below prior month outlook of $200M-$210M

·     VCEL -13%; falls in sympathy with MDWD which said the FDA declined to approve its topical treatment, NexoBrid, for burnt tissue – shares of development partner VCEL moved in sympathy