Mid-Morning Look

Wednesday, March 26, 2025

U.S. stocks giving up gains after the S&P record its first 3-day win streak since early February, weighed down early behind weakness in technology socks and ahead of key economic data reports this week. Technology stocks lagging (which has been a market leader during the recent 3-day S&P win streak), as semiconductors and AI data center related plays weak. Earlier this morning on CNBC, David Faber noted for the upcoming Coreweave (CRWV) IPO that “a lot of people questioning if going to price where expected, or will it be tough day.” Note Coreweave was supposed to be among the biggest IPOs of year; big for data center sentiment, which was leading the mkt, has now reversed. Note data center names falling/hurting tech early with sharp declines in likes of NVDA, AMD, data center names SMCI, VRT, ETN and nuclear names that provide power SMR, NRG, VST, OKLO, TLN. Outside of the early pressure in tech, NYSE mkt breadth favoring advancers over declines by 1.25:1 margin – with 7 of 11 sector in positive territory led by Energy, Financials, Consumer Staples, REITs and Materials as tech and consumer discretionary lag. There are also big potential catalysts coming up including GDP data tomorrow along with PCE inflation/University of Michigan Sentiment on Friday and of course the April 2^nd reciprocal tariff deadline. Despite recent media reports suggesting a more benign approach to tariffs on April 2^nd, markets still remain uncertain and concerned. The S&P 500 (SPX) looking to hold its 200dma support of roughly 5,756; Treasury yields rising and gold prices steady above $3,000 an ounce.

• February Durables orders rise +0.9% (above consensus -1.0%) but down from January’s +3.3%; February Durables ex-transportation orders +0.7% (cons +0.2%) vs Jan +0.1%; Feb Durables ex-defense orders +0.8% vs Jan +3.7% (prev +3.5%); Feb Durables shipments +1.2% vs Jan +0.7%; Feb nondefense cap shipments ex-aircraft +0.9% vs Jan -0.2%

• In Chemicals: WLK was downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper and reduced the tgt to $120, updating its model to reflect the release of Q424 and FY2024 earnings, updates in company guidance, its own set of industry channel checks and an updated outlook for the US and global economies. ASH was upgraded to Overweight at JP Morgan and raised tgt to $71 (from $68) and added to analyst focus list as views the weakness in Ashland’s businesses as more transient rather than structural.
• In Transports: JBHT was downgraded from Positive to Neutral at Susquehanna and cut tgt to $165 (from $200) saying near term, the truckload cycle likely gets worse before it gets better. Freight shippers’ tariff-driven margin concerns should weigh on carriers’ rate/margin gains in bid season, and the mix of inventory builds and demand skittishness in both retail and industrial should mute typically favorable Q2 demand. Susquehanna cut its EPS forecasts for all TL, IM, and brokerage names in 2025 (now ~5% to ~15% below consensus, excluding low-base RXO) and 2026 (~5% to ~25% below); remain Positive on KNX, HUBG, and CHRW in TL/IM.

• CHWY +3%; Q4 adj EPS of $0.28 topped consensus of $0.05 on better sales rising 15% y/y to $3.25B vs. est. $3.19B; the CEO noted performance was underpinned by strong active customer growth, and compelling Autoship customer loyalty.
• CTAS +9%; reported Q3 top and bottom-line results above consensus and raised its FY25 EPS view to $4.36-$4.40 from $4.28-$4.34 (est. $4.32) and narrows FY25 rev view to $10.28B-$10.31B from $10.26B-$10.32B.
• DLTR +3%; agrees to divest its Family Dollar business to Brigade Capital Management and Macellum Capital for roughly $1B (below the $9B it originally paid for it); also reports mixed earnings and guidance.
• DOOO +8%; after quarterly revenues fell by 20% to C$2.1 billion, but by less than analysts expected, which had forecasted a decline to C$1.98 billion; suspended its guidance for fiscal 2026 due to continued trade uncertainties after reporting lower sales in North America.
• GME +9%; shares jumped as Q4 EPS was $0.30, topping est. of $0.08, while revs of $1.28B missed $1.48B est. and adj EBITDA $96.5M, which is up 10% y/y; but shares jumped after announcing its board has unanimously approved an update to its investment policy to add Bitcoin as a Treasury reserve asset.
• PLTK +20%; shares upgraded from Underperform to Buy at Bank America and raises tgt to $6.50 as the co boasts the industry’s highest profitability (30% EBITDA margins), the industry’s largest DTC platform, and three of the largest and longest running franchises in mobile gaming history.
• WOR +17%; reported Q3 adj EPS $0.79 vs. est. $0.71; Q3 revs fell -4% y/y to $304.5M vs. est. $285.5M; Q3 Earnings before income taxes increased 30% to $52.6M.

• HUMA -28%; shares tumbled after selling 25Mm shares at $2.00 for $50Mm gross raise as the offering priced at 30.6% discount to last sale; intends to use net offering proceeds to fund commercialization of its implant Symvess for patients with extreme blood vessel injury.
• IVR -3%; cuts dividend to $0.34 from $0.40.
• NVDA -3%; China sales face threat from Beijing’s environmental curbs, Financial Times reported.
• SAIL -5%; following mixed Q4 results and guidance.
• VRT -9%; Barclays said sees revenue and margin pressure alongside lower investor expectations.