Mid-Morning Look

Monday, November 06, 2023

U.S. main indexes are mostly higher, looking to build on last week gains as the S&P rises a 6^th straight day ahead of heavy Fed speaker calendar following last week’s FOMC policy meeting. Six of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors climbed, with Healthcare and Staples leading, while REITs, Financials, and Materials fell the most. The NYSE breadth is negative as decliners leading advancers by a 2.5:1 margin despite major averages trading higher as Smallcaps (IWM) give back some of last week’s 7% gains. U.S. equities posted their best weekly performance in about a year last Friday, boosted by tumbling Treasury yields (fell to 5-week lows) as a weaker-than-expected monthly payrolls report spurred hopes that the Fed could start cutting rates next year. This morning so far, Treasury yields have recouped about 1/3 of those losses with the 10-yr yield at 4.65% (highs of morning). Oil prices rise after falling 6% last week, after Saudi Arabia and Russia confirm they will stick with oil supply cuts of more than 1 million barrels a day until the end of the year. Lots of speakers this week for the Fed include Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook, New York Fed President John Williams, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, along with Fed Chair Powell. The economic-data calendar for this week is light, while lots of SMID earnings results are due.

Sector Movers Today

·     In Autos: LCID cut prices of its Air range of luxury sedans earlier this week for a limited time ahead of the holiday season; slashed the price of its Air Touring model to $87,500 from $95,000 and the more powerful Grand Touring by $10,000 to $115,600 – Reuters. TSLA is increasing pay for workers in Germany as executives disclosed a 4% wage increase for workers at its site near Berlin during CEO Elon Musk’s visit to the factory last week, The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday. VC was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup in auto suppliers as believes recent weakness presents a more compelling entry point; notes shares have pulled back 17% since the end of Aug mostly on EV demand concerns, with the ’24 P/E de-rating to ~12x.

·     In Utilities: ETR upgraded to Buy at UBS and raise target price to $118 from $103 as believes the recent settlement with Arkansas around litigation with ETR’s SERI segment removes a substantial amount of the financial risk that has long been an overhang on the stock. NRG upgraded to Neutral from Sell at UBS and tgt to $46 from $33 because of the closing of the STP nuclear plant sale; CEG shares surged after earnings beat estimates.

·     In agricultural chemicals: CF was downgraded from Sector Outperform to Sector Perform at Scotia saying thesis for ’23 has largely played out as EU gas prices have doubled since the summer (to $16 from $8), with N prices forced to keep up. NTR was downgraded from Overweight to Neutral at JPMorgan and lower tgt to $58 from $70 saying EBITDA continues to make its way lower, as a base case from the peaks reached during early Russia/Ukraine conflict.

Stock GAINERS

·     AXSM +4%; after earnings results this morning.

·     BNTX +4%; reported a surprise profit in Q3 with higher sales (Q3 EPS $0.67/EU$895.3M vs. est. loss (-$0.59)/EU$851M – but down from EU$3.46B y/y); lowers year revs view to EU$4B from EU$5B and cuts FY23 CapEx view to EUR 200M-EUR 300M from EUR 500M-EUR 600M.

·     BVH +104%; as HGV agreed to purchase BVH for $75 a share in cash, in a deal valued at $1.5B inclusive of net debt https://tinyurl.com/s4pnhkje

·     CLDX +32%; after saying topline results for its Phase 2 study of its lead product candidate barzolvolimab met its key goal in severe chronic spontaneous urticaria.

·     FRPT +19%; following quarterly results this morning.

·     LINC +6%; reported upside to both Q3 revenue and AEBITDA on the strength of its shift to hybrid learning and adoption of Lincoln 10.0; sees Fy23 revenue midpoint to $372.5M vs prior $365.0M.

Stock LAGGARDS

·     ALB -5%; downgraded from Buy to Neutral at UBS and slash tgt to $140 from $253 as sees a greater risk to lithium volume growth and more downside earnings risk to 2024

·     BLMN -2%; downgraded at Raymond James in restaurants following the company’s Q3 earnings release as continues to see value in the shares from current depressed valuation levels (P/E 9x, EV/EBITDA ~5x), and potential catalysts with activist Starboard stirring.

·     BMBL -6%; as founder and CEO Whitney Wolfe Herd will step down early next year, according to a release from the company Monday. Lidiane Jones, the CEO of Salesforce’s cloud-based messaging platform Slack, will succeed her.

·     DISH -20%; swung to Q3 loss and lost subscribers across both of its businesses; reported lower revenue, dragged down by subscriber declines across both its Pay-TV and wireless businesses; Dish-TV/Sling-TV subs fell by -64K vs. ests around -40K and lost 22K retail wireless net subs in Q3.

·     MLTX -22%; reported results from a mid-stage study of a drug that aims to treat people with psoriatic arthritis.

·     PARA -5%; downgraded to Underperform from Buy at Bank America and slash price tgt to $9 from $32 saying its prior bullish thesis and valuation methodology was predicated on PARA’s inherent asset value in a potential sale.

·     TGLS -10%; after guides FY23 rev outlook to $835M-$848M vs. Consensus of $854.3M after mostly in-line Q3 results.