Mid-Morning Look

Thursday, November 20, 2025

U.S. stocks surge, pushing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 back above their respective 50dma resistance levels, helped twofold: as a beat and raise quarter on strong data center and gaming revs launched shares of NVDA higher and the rest of the AI complex, while delayed September nonfarm/private payroll data was released, beating expectations on jobs numbers though the unemployment rate edged higher to 4.4% showing labor market remained sluggish (a positive for those hoping the Fed will cut rates at their December meeting). AI complex up early across the board with CRWV, NBIS, ALAB, AMD, GOOGL as well as power/nuclear stocks and chip makers higher. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rises +0.1% early at 100.31, crossing over its 200dma yesterday of 99.93 and at best levels since May as the Euro falls -0.2% to 1.151 and rises vs. the Yen +0.5% to 157.65 (+2.3% this month). The dollar has since sunk post the jobs data. Bitcoin can’t get a sustained bounce, up slightly on day just under $91K despite the surge in risk assets today. Wal-Mart (WMT) earnings and raised guidance boosts the Dow component and retailing sector. Volatility index (VIX) was crushed behind NVDA and jobs, falling over 17% below the 20 level, down from weekly high 26.84 on 11/18. Stocks are strong out of the gate with all eleven S&P sectors positive to start the day.

• Philadelphia Fed business conditions November fell -1.7 vs. consensus +2.0 and improved from October -12.8; the prices paid index November 56.1 vs October 49.2; new orders index November -8.6 vs October 18.2; the employment index November 6.0 vs October 4.6; six-month capital expenditures outlook November 26.7 vs October 25.2 and six-month business conditions November 49.6 vs October 36.2.
• Weekly Jobless Claims were 220,000 in latest week vs. est. 230,000 and continued claims were 1.974M Nov 8 week vs. consensus 1.951M.
• Oct Existing Home Sales rose 1.2% m/m to 4.10M unit rate vs. consensus 4.08M and vs Sept 4.05M (prev 4.06M); Oct inventory of homes for sale 1.52M units, 4.4 months’ worth and Oct National median home price for existing homes $415,200, +2.1% from Oct 2024.

• Derivative call moves: Stifel said believe overall networking complexity and demand will continue to intensify for related networking companies, thereby driving revenues. We believe NVDA’s results could have a positive NT impact on networking-oriented companies (ALAB, CRDO, MRVL, and to a lesser extent, MXL), and the LT outlook remains positive. More broadly, we view today’s results as potentially positive for other AI data center-exposed businesses, including MTSI, SMTC and SITM as well.
• Data Center/Infrastructure stocks such as APLD, CRWV, CIFR, NBIS, IREN, SMCI, VRT, ETN, saw strength overnight and this morning after NVDA data center segment revs at $51.2B, above estimates of $48.62B. In news, CIFR announces a 10-year high-performance Computing (HPC) colocation agreement with Fluidstack, a Premier Ai Cloud platform that builds and operates HPC clusters for some of the world’s largest companies as transaction secures $830m in contracted revenue over initial 10-year term. Google expands backstop of Fluidstack’s obligations by additional $333m, increasing total backstop to $1.73B.
• Vaccine names active (MRNA, PFE, BNRX, NVAX, SNY, GSK) after the WSJ reported a CDC webpage now states that studies have not ruled out the possibility that infant vaccines cause autism, revising its previous stance. The revised webpage suggests aluminum adjuvants could contribute to autism and argues previous CDC assurances violated the Data Quality Act.

• CRNC +50%; shares surge on results as Q4 EPS loss (-$0.31) vs. est. loss (-$0.22); Q4 revs $60.64M vs. est. $55.3M; sees FY26 revenue $300M-$320M, vs. consensus $258.38M and FY26 adjusted EBITDA $50M-$70M.
• EXAS +17%; as ABT said it would buy cancer test maker EXAS in up to $23 billion deal, bolstering the medical device maker’s diagnostics business. As part of the agreement, Exact Sciences shareholders will receive $105 apiece in cash, implying a premium of about 21.8% to the stock’s last closing price.
• MNDR +56%; after saying it has signed an agreement to acquire two artificial Intelligence-optimized data Centers in Malaysia for up to $120M.
• NVDA +3%; reported strong FQ3 (Oct) results and provided FQ4 (Jan) guidance, which strongly exceeded expectations. Q3 revenue of $57B (+62% Y/y, +22%q/q) driven by strength in DC Compute and Networking which, combined, increased to $51.2B (+66% Y/y, +25% q/q).
• ODD +13%; after reported a top- and bottom-line beat with revs topping consensus by ~1.5% and adj. EBITDA beating by ~6% while Q4 revenue guide was slightly above consensus and its 4Q adj. EBITDA guide was in line; also modestly raised its FY25 guide.
• REGN +4%; after the FDA approved EYLEA HD, an injectable drug to treat patients with macular edema following retinal vein occlusion.
• WMT +5%; reported a Q3 beat for EPS, sales and comp sales; Q3 U.S. comparable sales up 4.5%, beating 3.8% estimates, EPS of $0.62 beat the $0.60 estimate and revs rose +5.8% y/y to $179.5B (vs. est. $177.43b) and raised its annual forecasts for EPS to $2.58-$2.63, from $2.52-$2.62 prior and net sales growth.

• BBWI -24%; after reported a drop in sales and earnings and slashed its forecast for the year; Q3 adj EPS $0.35/$1.59B missed the $0.39/$1.63B consensus and revised FY25 net sales guidance from 1.5%-2.7% growth to a decline of low single digits.
• BV -3%; shares declined after Q4 missed expectations on revenue and EPS and landscape maintenance and development revenues declined due to weaker contract activity and project delays.
• DDOG -3%; on the readthrough from PANW’s Chronosphere acquisition – Stifel said Chronosphere is an observability platform, but its Core competency is metrics, similar to DDOG’s Origin, and the acq. takes a comparatively under-resourced GTM company with good Tech at cheaper price point.
• PANW -2%; posted a generally solid F1Q and guided broadly in line with expectations as Q1 RPO (+24%-Y/Y), NGS-ARR (+29%-Y/Y), and Revenue (+16%-Y/Y) modestly above expectations while reaffirmed key FY26 metrics (RPO, ARR, and FCFM), while modestly raising revenue and profitability guidance.