Mid-Morning Look

Thursday, November 30, 2023

U.S. stocks again open higher, and for the third day, see some selling pressure out of the gate as traders/investors wrap up a stellar November. Coming into today, the S&P 500 has rallied 8.5% so far this month, while the Nasdaq is up 11%, which would be the biggest monthly advance for both indexes since July 2022. The Dow is up 7.2% in November, which would be its strongest monthly showing since October. The Russell 2000 index on [pace for 8.8% advance in November. Economic data this week has been strong following yesterday’s GDP 5.2% figure, and today, the Nov Chicago PMI manufacturing data reported at 55.8 (snaps the 14-month streak in contraction territory – below 50), above the consensus of 46.0 and highest since May of 2023. Those data points, ahead of the nonfarm payroll report next week show signs of a strong economy and lessen the stock market hopes for the Fed to cut rates early next year (and more likely a keep rates “higher for longer”). The 10-year yield bounces about 10-bps off yesterday’s lows of 4.25% after the Chicago PMI data and the dollar extended gains, up about +0.6% to 103.35, also helped by lower inflation data in Europe overnight. Energy stocks leading higher behind oil price bounce o OPEC headlines, followed by Materials and Industrial strength. The Dow outperforms behind better results from Salesforce (CRM) last night.

Economic Data

·     The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, advanced 3.5% Y/Y in October, matching the consensus and cooling from 3.7% in September while for a M/M basis, core PCE rose 0.2%, in-line with forecasts and down from 0.3% the prior month.

·     Oct overall PCE price index unchanged vs Sept +0.4% and below the consensus +0.1% expectation while on a Y/Y basis, PCE price index +3.0% (in-line) and down from Sept +3.4%.

·     Consumer spending rose 0.2% in October, down sharply from a 0.7% rise in September, the Commerce Department said Thursday. That marked the slowest increase since May.

·     Jobless Claims climbed to 218K in the latest week from 211K prior and vs. consensus 220K; the 4-week moving average fell to 220K from 220,500 the prior week; continued claims jumped to 1.927M in the latest week from 1.841M prior.

·     Chicago PMI manufacturing data for November was reported at 55.8 (snaps the 14-month streak in contraction territory – below 50), above the consensus of 46.0 and highest since May of 2023.

·     Pending Home sales index for October fell (-1.5%) vs. consensus (-2.0%) and Oct Pending Home sales -8.5% from Oct 2022.

Sector Movers Today

·     In Autos: Ford (F) said it now anticipates FY23 adj Ebit of $10B-$10.5B (prior guide $11B-$12B), which would include $1.7B in strike-related lost profits – $1.6B of that from Q4, owing to interruptions in production of high-margin trucks and SUVs and, in turn, vehicle wholesales about 100,000 units lower than planned; now sees adj FCF $5.0B-$5.5B down from prior $6.5B-$7B but above the consensus of $4.26B. GM awarded U.S. Dept. of State contract for next generation armored heavy-duty sport utility vehicles with a ceiling value of $300M, a 10-year indefinite delivery indefinite quantity full-rate production contract. TSLA is set to start deliveries of its long-delayed Cybertruck electric pickup on Thursday, after CEO Elon Musk tempered investor expectations citing problems in ramping up production of what he called a “radical” product.

·     In Paper & Packaging: strength continued for the group with IP, PKG, WRK all extending recent gains; PKG shares rose for the 6th time in 7-days, trading at all-time highs, and rallying since announcing recently a $70/ton Kraft linerboard increase and $100/ton corrugated medium increase for Jan 1st.; WRK and IP also strong.

·     In Telecom Equipment: ERIC and NOK both downgraded to Neutral at JP Morgan saying market conditions in 1H24 likely to remain very challenging: notes all three top US telcos (T, VZ, TMUS) have indicated that they intend to cut CAPEX in ’24 despite already reducing spending very substantially in ’23 and with inventory at these same telcos well ahead of normal levels.

·     In Semis: AMKR shares active as AAPL announces expanded partnership with Amkor for advanced silicon packaging in the U.S. CRDO reported in-line OctQ at $44M and guided to a better JanQ top line of $52M (consensus $51.1M), continuing its execution and noted ~3 >10% customers are ramping AEC, Line Card PHY, Optical DSPs and sees top line up q/q through F24E(Apr), and AEC Ramps expanding with new products P3 driving better ToR server utilization.

Stock GAINERS

·     CRM +7%; better results as Q3 adj EPS $2.11 vs. est. $1.88; Q3 revs $8.72B vs. est. $7.95B; sees Q4 2024 EPS $2.25-$2.26 vs est. $2.17 and revs $9.18B-9.23B vs est. $9.21B; raises FY24 EPS view to $8.18-$8.19 from $8.04-$8.06.

·     IMGN +80%; ABBV to acquire IMGN for $31.26 per share in cash in a deal valued at roughly just over $10B to acquire its flagship cancer therapy elahere® (mirvetuximab soravtansine-gynx), expanding solid tumor portfolio https://tinyurl.com/mry6ku37

·     NTNX +3%; reported Q1 EPS of $0.29 easily topping consensus $0.18 on revenues of $511M above ests. $501M, while Q1 revenue grew 18% Y/Y and ACV billings of $287M topped consensus $267M, growing 24% Y/Y; also raised guidance.

·     PINS +2%; and SNAP both upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies in social media on the view that both have catalysts for revenue growth upside in fiscal 2024.

·     SNOW +4%; reported Q3 product revenue growth of 34% Y/Y, above the Street’s ~29% target as mgmt cited strong, broad-based consumption activity in FQ3, with improvement beginning in the month of September and better guidance.

·     VSCO +14%; reported ~in-line sales with slightly worse EPS (GM beat offset by SGA miss), while mgmt noted Q3 improved as the quarter progressed, guided Q4 above-consensus at the high-end.

Stock LAGGARDS

·     ASO -2%; disappoints as forecasts FY net sales $6.11B-$6.17B, below its prior forecast $6.18B-$6.37B on wider comp sales losses of (-6.5% to -7.5%), from prior forecast (-4.5% to -7.5%) after Q3 EPS/sales missed (did announce a $600M stock buyback).

·     BBW -4%; lowered its FY23 revenue view to 3%-5%, down from its prior forecast of 5%-7% growth after Q3 revs were $107.56M missing the $108M est. while EPS topped ests.

·     DOOO -10%; Q3 adj EPS C$3.06 vs. est. C$3.07; cuts FY24 EPS view to C$11.10-C$11.35 from C$12.25-C$12.75 and lowered its FY24 revenue view to up 4%-5% from up 7%-10%.

·     OKTA -3%; after being shares downgraded by TDCowen, Wells Fargo, Keybanc, and Scotia following results yesterday and guidance.

·     PSTG -13%; as management significantly lowered Q4’24/FY’24 revenue expectations following a substantial Q3 EPS beat; guides Q4 revs $782Mm vs est. $919.42Mm, adj op Inc $150Mm vs est. $197.29Mm.

·     TITN -7%; reported Q3 results that were below expectations as revenue came in at $694.1M vs $727M estimate and EPS came in at $1.32 vs $1.53 estimate, as miss driven by delayed OEM deliveries; full year revenue guidance was slightly revised downward.

·     WB -12%; announces a $300M convertible senior notes offering.