Mid-Morning Look

Friday, October 31, 2025

U.S. stocks rebound sharply on this final trading day of the week, as Apple and Amazon earnings results reignited the tech rally that took a one-day break Thursday, where markets closed at their lows. Apple forecast a sharp rebound in holiday quarter sales, expecting revenue to rise 10-12% y/y on the back of its new iPhone releases, Q4 revenue grew 7.9%, beating estimates. Amazon also delivered standout Q3 results as its AWS revs jumped 20% to $33B, helping total sales climb 13% to $180.2B. The results boosted sentiment again in big tech, along with stronger earnings results/guidance from other tech names COIN (lifting crypto), NET, RDDT, ROKU, TWLO, TEAM and WDC all with notable moves higher. In energy, both major oil giants, CVX and XOM, reported better results.  Lone piece of economic data was positive (Chicago PMI), while the government shutdown enters its 31^st day, with millions of American losing assistance this weekend if a deal can’t be reached. Bitcoin, gold, oil prices all edging higher early and more gains for the dollar index (DXY) extending its bounce post FOMC Powell comments about a December rate cut not being a sure thing at this point due to lack of data. Stocks on track for another weekly win as Halloween turning more into a treat than a trick for U.S. markets/investors. A sweet end to the week/month.

• China’s Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0 in October, down 0.8 points from the preceding month to its lowest since April and remaining in contraction for the seventh consecutive month.
• China’s Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was little changed, rising to 50.1 from 50 previously into marginal expansion. The services sector was relatively firm (50.2).

• Tech Hardware: AAPL reported results were solid with revenue growth exceeding expectations on Services acceleration and Product upside ex. iPhone while guidance was notable in calling out DD growth in iPhone and 10-12% growth overall (the strongest revenue growth since FQ122 (Dec-2021)). Apple (AAPL) iPhone supply chain – Keybanc said it views AAPL’s results/guidance as positive for our Apple supply chain coverage universe (ARM, AVGO, CRUS, QCOM, QRVO, and SWKS) as AAPL posted F4Q25 (Sept) iPhone revenues ($49.0B, +6% y/y), which were below the consensus estimate of $49.2B (+6% y/y). AAPL saw growth in most markets, including Latin America, the Middle East, and South Asia, and India, despite supply constraints on both iPhone 16 and 17 models driven by strong demand.
• In Chemicals: Keybanc noted Chemical Market Analytics (CMA) released its monthly chlor-alkali report, showing higher domestic caustic soda prices (impacts OLN, WLK) and the U.S. index rose $10/ton m/m in October, below CMA’s forecast of +$25/ton (firm says a disappointment) and said December prices are now forecast to fall $5/ton vs prior forecast of +$5/ton. LYB reported Q3 EPS $0.20 above consensus but Q3 net loss of $890M compared with a year-ago profit of $573M after charge on better revs $7.73B. MEOH was upgraded to Overweight at JP Morgan ahead of earnings.
• In Animal/Pet Services: Stifel upgraded IDXX to Buy expects IDEXX’s CAG Dx recurring revenue growth to accelerate over the next couple of years as price realization steps down modestly; said ELAN was a favorite name although positive revisions are likely needed to drive the stock higher from here; for ZTS, said thinks it’s too early to turn bullish, worried about the optics of a sloppy Q3 and for TRUP, said vet inflation has proven stubborn, and Trupanion needs to show an ability to accelerate gross adds.

• BHF +19%; Aquarian Holdings is in advanced talks to take private U.S. life insurer Brighthouse Financial in a $4 billion deal that could be announced as soon as this weekend, Financial Times reported on Thursday, citing sources familiar with the matter. https://tinyurl.com/3hw5rca9  
• CHD +5%; as Q3 sales of $1.59B topped the $1.54B estimate as domestic sales of consumer products rose 2.3% on an organic basis from a year ago, driven by a 3.7% growth in volumes; raises 2025 net sales to grow about 1.5%, up from its prior view of flat to a 2% rise.
• COIN +5%; reported better-than-expected results with revs of $1.87B topping consensus, as transaction revenue of $1.05B exceeded expectations; Operating expense of $1.4B (9% sequential decline) was better, Consumer trading volume rose 37% QoQ, to $59B.
• FSLR +10%; reported Q3 revenue and EPS approximately aligned with expectations, Bookings ASPs increased q/q and y/y and narrowed/lowered FY25 guidance due to operational challenges, such as supply chain disruptions and contract terminations.
• IRTC +12%; Q3 revenue came in at $193M, ahead of consensus $185M as Zio AT accounted for ~14% of total revenue (~$27.0M) and both the core Zio Monitor business and Zio AT showed strong growth; revenue beat translated through to higher operating leverage with adjusted EBITDA coming in well-ahead.
• METC +4%; after the company announced it has signed a research and development agreement with the Department of Energy to “accelerate the discovery, mining processing and creation of rare earths and critical minerals.”
• NET +11%; reported strong 3Q25 results with 31% YoY revenue growth, re-accelerating its YoY growth rate for the second consecutive quarter; company raised FY25 guidance and provided encouraging commentary on achieving $3B in ARR by 4Q26 on the path to $5B by 4Q28.
• NFLX +2%; as announces ten-for-one stock split, with shares rising overnight on news. Separately, Netflix is actively weighing making an offer to acquire WBD’s studio and streaming business, retaining MC and gaining access to financial information, Reuters reported https://tinyurl.com/r6jw249k
• RDDT +14%; Q3 revenue was $40M above the high end of guidance as advertising revenue grew 74% Y/Y, while global DAUQ grew 19% Y/Y as Reddit added 5.6M DAUqs Q/Q with U.S. logged-in DAU growing Q/Q; EBITDA totaled $236M (+151% Y/Y) as margins crossed 40% for the first time.
• TWLO +16%; reported very strong Q3 results with organic growth of 13% in the quarter, which led to increasing the FY25 organic growth guide to 11.3-11.5% vs prior guidance of 9-10% as outperformance was based on broad based strength across customers segments of self-serve and enterprise.
• WDC +9%; after the computer-storage company reported better-than-expected 1Q results and its current quarter forecast came in largely ahead of estimates.

• CHTR -2%; shares fell on Q3 miss as EPS $8.34 missed the consensus $9.29 on revs $13.67B, below consensus $13.75B and reported a loss of -109,000 Internet customers in Q3, compared with expected decrease of -82,950, per Visible Alpha; lost -70,000 video customers in Q3 vs decline of -294,000 y/y.
• CMCSA -1%; downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at Keybanc saying while Broadband/Mobile net adds were better than expected, the firm underappreciated the investment needed to achieve the results (Goldman Sachs also downgraded CMCSA for same reasons).
• DXCM -13%; as reported a nice beat on the top line, a miss on GMs and OMs, but in-line operating profits given the revenue upside; guide was disappointing with Fy25 revs lifted to reflect Q3 results with Q4 left unchanged, but GM and adjusted EBITDA guidance lowered as costs continue to impact the P&L
• NWL -30%; after guiding FY25 net sales to decline between (5%-4.5%), worse than prior view of a (-3% to 2%) fall, lowered EPS view to $0.56-$0.60 from prior $0.66-$0.70 after Q3 sales fell -7.2% y/y to $1.8B missing the $1.8B estimate and sees incremental cash tariff cost of approximately $180M y/y.
• SPSC -25%; shares tumbled on results, downgraded to Neutral at Cantor and tgt to $80 from $135 after reported mixed-to-negative Q3 results with Recurring revenue missing consensus on myriad headwinds; profitability made up some of the shortfall, but ultimately FCF missed as well on weak guidance.