Mid-Morning Look

Tuesday, September 14, 2021

U.S. stocks opened higher after slowing consumer prices eased fears that high inflation will push the Federal Reserve to reduce stimulus early. The consumer-price index rose a seasonally adjusted +0.3% in August from July, lower than the +0.4% that economist estimate. The rise is slower than the +0.5% monthly increase in July, and down markedly from June’s +0.9% pace. However, major averages pulled back off the highs as the S&P 500, after initially popping about 0.4%, is now in negative territory. Meanwhile, after hitting a high of 1.35%, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is sliding back below 1.30% as bonds rise. The S&P 500 had eked out a modest increase on Monday, snapping a 5-day losing streak while the Dow outperformed, and Nasdaq Composite fell a 4^th straight day. The focus in tech today remains Apple (AAPL) which is likely to reveal its newest phones and smartwatch during the annual September event, which will be livestreamed on the company’s website from 1 p.m. ET. Concerns remain that a rise in Delta variant cases of Covid-19 could weigh further on economic activity or slow the shipping of goods and materials, adding to inflationary pressures, but it is still not being felt in global stock markets. Crude oil marked up a third day of gains with another hurricane emerging just weeks after Ida encumbered local output. Treasury yields and the dollar slide.

Economic Data

·     Inflation pressures ease slightly, coming in below economist expectations: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Aug MoM reported at +0.1%, below the +0.4% estimate and on a YoY basis, reported in-line at 5.3% The core CPI Ex: Food & Energy MoM rose +0.1% below the +0.3% estimate and YoY CPI rose 4% below est. +4.2%

Sector Movers Today

·     Media & Telecom movers; cable stock weakened after CMCSA says it has seen a “little bit of a slowdown in net adds” at the end of August after CFO speaks at conference (CHTR shares fell as well); IAC disclosed monthly business trends for August showing ANGI at +21% Y/Y in August up from +16% in July (including the Total Home Roofing acquisition, which closed July 1st). DotDash, while strong at +29% Y/Y continues to show normalization of growth, especially in DR; DISH selected IBM’s artificial intelligence-powered automation and network orchestration software and services for its cloud-native 5G network.

·     Software movers; ORCL posts Q1 revenue of $9.73B (+2% YoY c/c and down -4% QoQ c/c), slightly missing the $9.77B Street consensus saying revs were hit by competition in the cloud computing space as the software giant competes with MSFT’s Azure, AMZN’s Amazon Web Services (AWS), CRM and IBM; in video games (ATVI, EA, TTWO), NPD data showed August U.S. console/handheld software sales were roughly $150 million, down 11% year-over-year, and below Wedbush estimate of $172 million; SRAD 19M share IPO priced at $27.00

·     Pharma movers; The UK Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunization recommended a booster shot of PFE/BNTX’s COVID-19 vaccine to the 50+ and other vulnerable groups not earlier than six months after the second shot; EBS secures multi-year development and manufacturing agreement with providence therapeutics for its MRNA covid-19 vaccine candidate, ptx-covid19-b; JNCE upgraded to Outperform at Raymond James based on a mosaic of recent and upcoming events and competitive developments with read through in the LILRB/ILT space; KERN said to acquire 365 Cannabis, a cannabis-specific application built on Microsoft’s Dynamics 365

·     Bank movers; GS to replace its CFO at year-end, with Denis Coleman taking over from current CFO Stephen Scherr (Coleman, 47, is co-head of the global financing group in Goldman’s investment banking division); the NY Times reported that Elizabeth Warren asks the Fed to break up Wells Fargo (WFC), to break off its core banking activities from its other financial services; JPM said today at a conference that it sees 3q trading revenue down 10% sequentially and y/y and sees 3q investment-banking fees up y/y and down q/q

·     Retailers; Deloitte is forecasting a 7% to 9% increase in holiday retail sales this year, reaching a total of $1.28 trillion to $1.30 trillion during the November to January period. E-commerce is expected to grow 11% to 15% to between $210 billion and $218 billion (as per MarketWatch); BBW updated guidance from slides – sees 2021 revenue of $375M-$385M vs $383M consensus, EBITDA of $45M-$50M and expects to make planned capital expenditures of around $10M to support growth initiatives; LESL upgraded to a Buy from Hold at Berenberg and increasing target to $30 from $28 as believe the recent pullback in Leslie’s stock price since early May (-21% vs Russell 2000 +1%) presents a strong buying opportunity; Sovos Brands Inc. said it expects the price of its IPO to be between $14-$16 a share as it plans to offer 23.33M shares of its common stock and will grant underwriters a 30-day option to buy up to an additional 3.5M shares

Stock GAINERS

·     AXSM +3%; after the FDA accepted its filing for AXS-07 as a treatment of acute treatment of migraine and assigned an April 30 PDUFA target date

·     BA ; raises long-term jet demand forecast on commercial air travel rebound in domestic markets like the United States; forecasts 43,610 commercial jet deliveries over the next 20-years-worth $7.2 trillion, up from the 43,110 projected a year ago

·     FCEL +32%; after reported a rare narrower-than-expected fiscal third-quarter net loss, helped by higher gross margin, and revenue that rose above forecasts.

·     MGNI +5%; after selected by $FUBO as preferred sell-side platform

·     MRNA +4%; rebounds after selling in vaccine related names sunk shares by over 6.6% Monday

·     WFC +1%; general strength in big banks early despite a pullback in Treasury yields

Stock LAGGARDS

·     CMCSA -4%; says it has seen a “little bit of a slowdown in net adds” at the end of August after CFO speaks at conference (CHTR shares fell as well)

·     CVAC -2%; after terminates 2 manufacturing contracts due to the reduced short-term peak demand for Covid19 vaccines

·     HLF -14%; cuts Q3 EPS and sales view; cuts FY21 revenue view to 4.5%-8.5% from 8.5%-12.5% and EPS to $4.55-$4.95 from $4.70-$5.10 (est. $4.99) saying they recently observed lower than expected levels of activity amongst its independent distributors

·     ORCL -3%; posts Q1 revenue of $9.73B (+2% YoY c/c and down -4% QoQ c/c), slightly missing the $9.77B Street consensus saying revs were hit by competition in the cloud computing space

·     RDHL -34%; said topline data from a global Phase 2/3 study for opaganib (ABC294640) in patients hospitalized with severe COVID-19 pneumonia did not reach its primary endpoint.

·     WYNN -8%; as Bloomberg reported that Macau wants government representatives to supervise casino operators and plans to increase local ownership in gambling companies, signaling tighter control over the world’s largest gambling hub amid Beijing’s efforts to clamp down on money laundering and currency outflows (shares of LVS, MLCO also dropped)

Syndicate:

·     Avantor (AVTR) 20.83M share Secondary priced at $42.00

·     Coupang (CPNG) 57M share Block Trade priced at $29.85

·     Life Storage (LSI) 2.5M share $306M Spot Secondary priced at $122.40

·     MP Materials (MP) 4.25M share Spot Secondary priced at $35.00

·     Neogames (NGMS) 3.46M share Secondary priced at $36.00

·     Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) announces pricing of 28M secondary public offering (does not specify price in the press release)

·     Sportradar (SRAD) 19M share IPO priced at $27.00